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Post We can stop this right now

Thursday December 11, 2008

Tim Tebow is an outstanding football player. He may or may not win his second Heisman this weekend. He may or may not win a national title in a month.

But this “greatest amateur player in a team sport” nonsense needs to be nipped in the bud. It’s indefensible, and it’s the same kind of in-the-now garbage that we’d expect from a throwaway ESPN segment. Worse, it forces us to take a critical look at one of the best players in the game right now when we should be congratulating him on another stellar season.

Even as a Georgia fan I wouldn’t go so far as to call Herschel Walker the “greatest amateur player in a team sport”, but you might be able to make a better case. Walker’s teams, and make no mistake – they were Walker’s teams, didn’t lose a single conference game or home game in his three years. He didn’t need dramatics or something disturbingly now called “The Promise“. He just ran over people.

And as for this “will to win” stuff, it’s going to be hard to top carrying your team to a national title by going for over 100 yards with a separated shoulder.

Again the worst of this kind of talk is that it’s a distraction from a wonderful season for Tebow and his team. It says a lot that there’s even a case to be made on a topic like this. Is the GPOOE no longer enough? Matt Hayes thinks we’re looking at the GAPIATS-E. And the guy has a freaking Heisman vote.


Post Stuck in Douglas Adams hell

Sunday December 7, 2008

Douglas AdamsWelcome to the week that was in Georgia athletics where the number 42 served to tie together three very low points for three Bulldog teams.

42 points in football is usually enough to outscore anyone except Oklahoma, but we know how that turned out last weekend.

On the other hand 42 points in basketball often means a loss, and that was the case for the Lady Dogs on Friday at Georgia Tech. Not only did Tech beat Georgia by double-digits; they also took sardonic pleasure in making Georgia fans look up at the scoreboard and see “42” in the second losing effort to Tech within a week. “Just like football,” indeed.

Andy Landers might consider teams like LSU and Tennessee more worthy peers and rivals, but like it or not he’s got a very serious challenge in his own state. Georgia controls the series with Tech 28-3, but the series is an even 3-3 over the past six years, and Georgia has lost two out of the last three on Tech’s home floor. There was no question who the better team was on Friday night.

Even the men’s basketball team pitched in with their own 42-point nightmare on Saturday. The Dawgs trailed from the start and saw a somewhat close game deteriorate into a 34-point blowout loss at Illinois. The lowlight, pointed out in graphic detail by the Georgia Sports Blog, was a 22-0 Illinois run to close the game. Once Illinois started finding openings and hitting perimeter shots against Georgia’s 1-3-1 defense, the game was over. But the meltdown at the end was one of the things you might have expected from Felton’s first few teams where we patted everyone on the head for the effort and reassured ourselves that such defeats would be soon forgotten once 2003 was comfortably in the past. So much for that.

Maybe Georgia just needs to avoid teams from Illinois.


Post Offense vs. defense

Friday December 5, 2008

I was listening to Cowherd’s interview with Gary Danielson yesterday, and the SEC championship was framed as a clash between defense (Alabama) and offense (Florida). This isn’t to pick on what was a good interview or disagree with that storyline because – let’s be honest – most people are looking at it that way because those have been two very dominant units.

But framing the game that way tends to underrate the other elements of the game – namely Alabama’s offense and Florida’s defense and special teams. First let’s look at the Alabama offense. It has most of the pieces you’d expect from a quality offense. The line is veteran and talented. Knowshon Moreno might be the best back in the SEC, but no school has a running back tandem as good as Coffee and Ingram, and Upchurch isn’t bad. Receivers are adequate until you come to difference-maker Julio Jones. It’s a long time ago, but the way this offense came out, mixed it up, and took it right at teams like Clemson and Georgia earlier in the season opened a lot of eyes.

As the Senator notes, it all comes down to quarterback play for the Tide. He’s been shaky a few times this season but nothing like the roller coaster ride that was 2007. If he has time, he should be fine, and Alabama’s experienced OL should help them here against a talented but young Florida defensive front.

Then there’s the Florida defense. It was assumed during the offseason that the Florida defense had to be better because – hey- it couldn’t get much worse. I don’t think many people expected this kind of improvement though. How good is the Florida defense? You know that great Alabama defense everyone sees as a strength in this game? They check in at #3 in total defense (248.5 YPG) and #3 in scoring defense (11.5 PPG). Pretty damn good, right? Florida is #7 (275.67 YPG) and #4 (12.3 PPG) in the same categories. Less than 30 YPG and 1 PPG separates these two defenses.

Florida also has the edge in turnovers. They lead the nation in turnover margin thanks in large part to being third in the nation with 32 takeaways. Florida has 23 interceptions this year, and that’s just one less than Alabama’s total number of takeaways.

Any distinction between the two defenses becomes even more hazy when you look at common opponents.

Common Opponent – Georgia: Florida W 49-10, Alabama W 41-30. Both teams had one explosive half against the Dawgs, but Florida’s defense held Georgia off the scoreboard better than Alabama’s. You can argue whether or not Alabama let up, and Florida did give up close to 400 yards to the Georgia offense.

Common Opponent – Kentucky: Florida W 63-5, Alabama W 17-14. Not even close. Kentucky had the Tide nervous, and Florida reduced the Cats to rubble.

Common Opponent – LSU: Florida W 51-21, Alabama W 27-21. Both teams feasted on LSU turnovers, but the difference was in the ground game. LSU rushed for 201 yards against Alabama but only 80 against Florida. Did the nature of the game matter? The LSU-Alabama game was a close one where LSU could stick with the run. At Florida, the Tigers were down 20-0 and in comeback mode not long into the second quarter.

Common Opponent – Ole Miss: Florida L 30-31, Alabama W 24-20. Both teams played Ole Miss close, and Florida actually held Ole Miss to fewer yards than Alabama did. The difference might have been turnovers. Florida forced only one Rebel miscue, and Alabama came away with three. Florida in 2008 mostly avoided the big play bug that hurt them so much in 2007, but an 86-yard TD pass in this one made them pay. Again, Alabama let up in this game and saw a 24-0 lead evaporate.

Common Opponent – Tennessee: Florida W 30-6, Alabama W 29-9. Both teams held Tennessee to a few field goals, but Florida held the Vols to nearly 100 fewer yards.

Common Opponent – Arkansas: Florida W 38-7, Alabama W 49-14. Alabama was definitely the more dominant team against the Hogs. Florida was in a 17-7 game in the second half while the Tide used offense and defense to put their game away by halftime in a foreshadowing of what was to come in Athens.

After looking at that, is the Alabama defense really that much of a relative advantage in this game? Special teams will also matter. Both teams have exciting return men, but Florida’s punt block unit has been one of the big behind-the-scenes development of the season. They plowed through Kentucky and Vanderbilt punt protection with speed and skill that would make Poland nervous. Florida right now is the opposite of what we’ve seen this year from Georgia. Instead of offense and special teams making it tough at times for an already-shaky defense, Florida defense and special teams are making things easier for an already-potent offense.

Alabama has the pieces to win this game, but I have to go with a Florida team that has been consistently excellent over the past two months on offense and defense. The Alabama and Florida defenses are statistically very close over the course of the season, but the gap between the offenses is nowhere near as tight. Florida wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the underrated Florida defense make its mark on the game in a very big way.


Post Thanksgiving weekend leftovers

Monday December 1, 2008
  • Waiting for us in the mailbox Saturday evening was the Hartman Fund renewal envelope. Talk about perfect timing. Somehow I don’t see 10,000+ points as the cutoff for new season tickets next year.
  • Aside from Massaquoi’s afternoon, the one good memory I’ll take away from the game was the block that Chapas threw to spring Moreno around the end for his touchdown run. It was Tony-Milton-2002-Kentucky good.
  • Speaking of Chapas, his contribution this year was a bright spot. He answered the call and really set himself up as the next Georgia fullback. But what ever happened to Southerland? Was his conditioning just shot after the injury kept him off his feet for so long? Southerland played and contributed where he could – even at tight end in certain packages – but surely this isn’t the way most of us thought and hoped it would end for him.
  • Either Lane Kiffin stole HeismanPundit’s girlfriend once, or Tennessee will be looking for another new coach in a few years. HP first warned athletic directors back in September and has continued to beat the drum since. No punches pulled there.
  • Clemson’s new coach also fails to impress. It comes off like a cross between Bill Stewart and Ray Goff. He’s regarded as a recruiter, young, liked by his players, and has embraced his school’s traditions, but the win over South Carolina sure seems a lot like Stewart’s win over Oklahoma last year. I look at it this way – if Swinney were in the same assistant position at, say, his alma mater Alabama, would he even register on a Clemson coaching search?
  • If Georgia has a kindred spirit this year, it’s Missouri. The Tigers started the season around the top 5, didn’t have to play Texas Tech or Oklahoma in the regular season, and still finished 9-3 giving up 40 points to a 7-5 team in their last game and loss. Yet they’re playing for a conference title this weekend.

Post Big 12 – BCS got it right

Monday December 1, 2008

You’ve really got to hate it for Texas safety Blake Gideon. A single dropped interception a few weeks ago is all that stands between Texas and the #1 spot in the polls, a spot in the Big 12 title game, and the inside track to the national title game. Instead, Texas is now on the outside looking in for not only the national title game but even the championship of half of a conference.

The bits and bytes will be burning up this week debating the subject, so here are a few more points to ponder.

First, understand that this is a Big 12 problem, not a BCS problem. The Big 12 chose to make the BCS part of its tiebreaker process. Blaming an undesirable outcome on the BCS in this situation makes as much sense as pointing out the flaws in rock-paper-scissors if the conference had chosen that method to break its ties. The conference will surely revisit its tiebreaker scenarios after this year, and it’s on them for not taking care of it earlier.

Second, the BCS got it right. As much as Texas wants to boil this down to a 45-35 45-35 45-35 45-35 45-35 argument, it’s not that simple. To begin with, it conveniently skips over the loss to Texas Tech and the fact that the #1 team in the nation couldn’t hold a lead with a minute to go. That’s not a fatal flaw for Texas by any stretch – all three Big 12 co-champs have their warts. But it is enough to step back and remember that the BCS evaluates not only individual results but also the entire season.

That’s where Oklahoma shines, and I’m glad to see that in this case schedule was rewarded. Oklahoma has wins over BCS-bound Cincinnati and #11 TCU. Texas’ best nonconference opponent was Arkansas – a middling SEC school. Texas Tech played no one from another BCS conference. Texas did have their tough gauntlet that culminated in the loss at Texas Tech, but among a group of three teams that played the conference season to a deadlock Oklahoma’s out of conference slate has to tilt things in their favor.


Post The best defense…

Tuesday November 25, 2008

Much, if not all, of the talk leading up to this weekend’s game will center around Georgia’s challenge in stopping Georgia Tech’s option offense. There’s plenty of reason for that: it’s a look we’re not used to, it’s effective, and it did a lot of damage in the game most of us used to scout the upcoming opponent. Defending the option will require exceptional preparation and execution. But don’t take for granted the size of the job on the other side of the ball. Keep this fact in mind:

Tech hasn’t scored more than 17 points on Georgia since 2000.

That might or might not change this year. Tech’s offense is different and improved this year, and past performance does not guarantee future results, etc., etc., etc. We’ve seen what the Tech offense can do against teams like Miami and Mississippi State, but they’ve also scored 21 or fewer points in over half of their games to this point thanks largely to turnovers.

Yet from 2004-2006, the games were way too close for comfort. In 2004, David Greene had to come off the bench and play injured just to get a field goal. Georgia scored 30+ in four of its last five games in 2005 but could only manage 14 against Tech. In 2006, Georgia couldn’t even break double-digits without help from the defense. In games where the Georgia offense has performed well, the result has been wins by double-digits.

Georgia in 2008, statistically speaking, has one of their best offenses in recent history. The quarterback, running back, and receivers are among the SEC leaders, and it’s all being done behind a young and depleted line. But those of us who have seen the offense in operation should know that statistics over the course of a season have a way of smoothing over what’s actually happened. Yes, this is the same Georgia offense that had its way with Arizona State, LSU, and Kentucky. It’s also the same offense that struggled for 14 points at South Carolina, skipped the first half against Alabama, shot itself in the foot against Florida, and couldn’t put Auburn away. If the Georgia offense had been performing consistently at a high level on the way to those nice averages, I wouldn’t be as concerned. But they haven’t.

Georgia Tech is currently #12 in scoring defense at 16.7 PPG – that’s the best unit on either team in this game in terms of scoring offense or defense. #12 puts them more or less between Auburn and Tennessee in that stat. They are strongest up front with Darryl Richard and Michael Johnson leading the way, but they have also been opportunistic with 17 interceptions (10th best in the nation).

The performance of Georgia’s offense will have a bigger impact on the game than just putting points on the board. With everyone fretting about stopping the option, what better way to affect an offense’s gameplan than to put it in a come-from-behind situation? Even in its losses Tech has done a good job this year of keeping the games close and within reach, and they’ve been able to stick to the offense. It wasn’t until North Carolina built a lead on them that Tech QB Josh Nesbitt attempted a season-high 22 passes.

It’s the last home game for Massaquoi, and it could be the swan song at Sanford for Stafford and Moreno as well. That trio, along with the rest of the offense, just might be Georgia’s best weapon to slow down Tech’s option attack. I go back to what I wrote back over the summer: if Tech is going to end the streak any time soon, (defensive coordinator) Dave Wommack will have as much or more to do with it than Paul Johnson. If Georgia’s stars on offense go out with a signature performance, it won’t matter what kind of offense Tech is running.


Post One SEC media member got it (almost) right

Monday November 24, 2008

Back in July when the SEC media made its preseason predictions, a single vote stood out among the dozens cast. David Paschall pretty much captured my reaction when he wrote that, "The Ole Miss Rebels somehow received a first-place vote after going 0-8 in the league last year." That’s right: Alabama, zero votes. Ole Miss, one vote. The SEC media split its SEC West first-place votes among Auburn, LSU, and….Ole Miss.

The Rebels are in no danger of winning the SEC West, but in hindsight that lone voter – through luck or skill – had a lot more insight than the rest who put LSU or Auburn at the top. With Saturday’s win at LSU, Ole Miss moved into second place in the SEC West behind undefeated Alabama. The Rebels are 4-3 in the conference and 7-4 overall. This week’s Egg Bowl played at home against Mississippi State stands between the Rebels and a very solid 5-3 SEC record made all the more remarkable when you consider that Ole Miss won a total of 3 SEC games during the three years with Ed Orgeron at the helm.

With that record, it would be tough to keep Ole Miss out of a pretty nice bowl game. Only Alabama, Florida, and Georgia would have better SEC records. If Houston Nutt, with a new program and a new quarterback, could turn Ole Miss from a team that went winless in the SEC a year ago to a team headed for a New Year’s bowl, I don’t see how anyone else could be considered the SEC’s Coach of the Year.

Of course it all comes down to this weekend. Not only would a loss to Mississippi State drop the Rebels into a 4-4 mess, a loss in their biggest rivalry game would also take a lot of the shine off of a nice season. The memory of last year’s epic collapse in Starkville still has to hurt, and a win this year to top off a winning season would go a long way towards erasing the bad memories left from the end of the Orgeron era.


Post Bye week thoughts from the couch

Monday November 24, 2008

Where is Penn State among the discussion of 1-loss teams? Their dismantling of Oregon State looks better every week, and their only loss was a 1-point road upset against an 8-4 Iowa team. Not saying they necessarily stand out over Texas, Florida, or any of the others, but it’s amazing how quickly they were written out of the conversation after the Iowa game.

Jarrett Lee’s taking a lot of heat for LSU’s woes this season, and he has made his share of mistakes, but issues at quarterback were more or less a given entering the season. Most expected LSU to follow a tried-and-true SEC formula: play well enough on defense to get by with average offense. The story of LSU’s season hasn’t been Lee’s struggles at quarterback; it’s been the slippage on defense. LSU has given up 31+ in five of their last seven games. Houston Nutt has won at Death Valley in consecutive seasons with two different teams and seems to have his quarterback for the next several seasons. The Alabama-Auburn-LSU power structure in the SEC West has been shaken up this season, and if the Rebels can win the Egg Bowl this year, an 8-4 Ole Miss team might be headed to the Cotton Bowl.

How might a guy named Sammie Stroughter impact Georgia’s postseason? Pac-10 leader Oregon State had to come from behind to win at Arizona, and Stroughter was Mr. Clutch for the Beavers down the stretch. He tallied 3 catches for 88 yards on OSU’s final two drives, caught the touchdown pass that pulled the Beavers to within 1, and then set up the game-winning field goal with a 49-yard reception with under 40 seconds remaining. With the win, Oregon State remains in position to win the Pac-10 if they can beat Oregon this weekend. If OSU does win out and earn a Rose Bowl trip, it will likely keep Ohio State out of the BCS and put them in a position for a possible game against Georgia in the Capital One Bowl. If OSU loses to their rival, Southern Cal heads to the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets an at-large BCS bid, and it would be Michigan State heading to Orlando.

Is it possible for a team like Vanderbilt to have a letdown game? Twice this year after milestone wins (the Auburn victory in front of a national Gameday audience and the Kentucky victory which made them bowl-eligible), the Commodores have come up with an ugly loss. Mississippi State and Tennessee have a combined 4 SEC wins, and Vanderbilt accounts for half of them. It’s great and all that Vandy is headed to a bowl game, but they are still very much Vanderbilt.

David Cutcliffe’s Duke team was the talk of the college football scene after a 31-3 win over Virginia gave the Blue Devils a 3-1 start. Entering the final week of the season, Duke is now 1-6 in the ACC and will be favored to lose to rival North Carolina this weekend. Duke has won just one game since that blowout of Virginia back in September…naturally, that win came against Vanderbilt. Four wins would still be as many victories as Duke had from 2004-2007, but that quick start might have inflated expectations for this season. Cutcliffe is still a heck of a coach and will continue a tough turnaround job.

When sorting out the Big 12 South mess, how important is the strength of schedule factor? Texas’s win over Oklahoma on a neutral field surely counts for a lot, but we can’t forget that Texas (and Muschamp’s defense) had the game in Lubbock for the taking and didn’t get it done. Looking outside their respective Big 12 schedules, Oklahoma should get credit for a slate that includes wins over respectable TCU and Cincinnati teams. Meanwhile, Texas’s best nonconference opponent was SEC bottom-dweller Arkansas, and Texas Tech hasn’t played a BCS conference team outside of the Big 12.


Post Get ready

Friday November 21, 2008

You know what’s coming over the next eight days. The Tech people you know will be insufferable. The Atlanta media will bait and bait – the Schultz and Bradley columns almost write themselves, don’t they? Even Wes Durham couldn’t wait to start running his mouth. Just smile…it’ll be a small price to pay when we’re enjoying #8.


Post I have no idea what to expect.

Friday November 14, 2008

Maybe it’s the play of the defense and special teams lately. Maybe it’s the nature of the rivalry. For whatever reason, Georgia fans seem really gun-shy about this weekend’s game. The Dawgs are nearly a ten-point favorite, but good luck finding someone willing to take Georgia and give the points.

No one really knows what to expect. It’s true that Georgia’s offense seems to be the biggest advantage that sticks out, and the Dawgs have put up some points on Auburn for, well, for the last three seasons. If there’s something we can put our finger on, it’s concern over the defense. Georgia should be able to keep the sputtering Tiger offense in check. The only two times Auburn has scored over 20 in SEC play this season they’ve needed a score from the defense or special teams to get there.

Corvey Irvin in particular has been saying all the right things this week about the play of the defense, but it’s Missouri time now. Show me. Nothing Auburn will do is going to be a surprise. Mario Fannin will likely get the start, but we’ll see plenty of Lester and Tate too. Kodi Burns is primarily a running threat, but when he throws it’ll probably be in the direction of Smith or Trott. Auburn’s not a hard scout – it’s all up to execution.

LSU’s Charles Scott had success running against Georgia, and Fannin is the same type of back – 5’11", 220+. Irvin and the others can rant and hold meetings, but their success will come down to their ability to do the basics. Get penetration, contain Burns, play assignments, play with intensity and aggression, and watch how much better the defense looks.

I admit I don’t have a good read on the game either, so I’ll just look at what worked in 2006 and 2007.

The story of 2006 was possession. I had forgotten how lopsided it was. You had Battle’s three interceptions of course, but the memorable thing about Brandon Cox’s line that day was that he threw as many interceptions as completions and incompletions (4 of each). Clock rules or no, Auburn ran an astonishing 37 plays on offense. 12 passes, 25 runs. Georgia ran nearly twice as many plays – 46 runs and 20 passes. Georgia held the ball for over 38 minutes.

The day was also a bit of redemption for Matthew Stafford. He not only took a beating at Kentucky the week earlier, but fans were beginning to question just what we had after another game full of turnovers and a second half meltdown. Stafford hit deep passes to A.J. Bryant (yes, actually A.J. Bryant in case Dave Neal is reading) and Kenneth Harris to set the tone, and Stafford’s lone miscue of the day was a fumble after a decent run. Even with the fumble, Stafford showed off his ability to run the ball and finished the day with 83 yards and a rushing touchdown that put the game away early in the fourth quarter.

The 2007 game followed several of the same themes. Kelin Johnson took over for Tra Battle and picked off Brandon Cox’s first pass, and Georgia was off and running. Stafford again found success on the deep pass with a long touchdown strike to Massaquoi. The Bulldog defense again picked off four of Cox’s passes.

Unlike the 2006 game, Auburn responded and even took the lead in the third quarter. Georgia answered with another long pass from Stafford to Bailey, and then Knowshon and Thomas Brown took over.

Those two Auburn wins showcased every tedious key to victory you’ve ever heard:

  • Get out early
  • Capitalize on turnovers
  • Win the turnover battle
  • Have a 100+ yard rusher
  • Keep the other guy from running (Auburn didn’t have a player go over 60 yards in either game)
  • Hit some deep passes to keep the defense honest

If Georgia can find a way to do all of that again, the result will be just as enjoyable.


Post Film study: kick coverage

Friday November 14, 2008

Paul did a good job with a look at the special teams earlier in the week. He correctly observes that…

At this point, it’s not where the kick lands that’s driving me nuts. It’s the actual coverage. Georgia’s kickoff coverage unit looks nothing like you see in Florida, LSU or Bama.

Forget Florida, LSU, or Bama. Let’s look at Kentucky. I noticed this during the game and had to go back to the tape to make sure. These are two kickoffs from Saturday’s game; one a Georgia return and one a Kentucky return. See if you notice the difference.

Kentucky return

UGA return

Both kicks were reasonably deep; Kentucky’s landed about five yards closer to the goal line. On Kentucky’s return, the returner is already approaching the 20 yard line as Georgia’s coverage is getting to the 30. If the returner doesn’t run into his blocker, he gets to the 30 before he is even touched.

Then look at Georgia’s return. Samuel is barely at the 7 yard line when the Kentucky coverage is approaching the 20. First contact is around the 18, and Samuel to his credit works for about 5 more yards.

If you think this might just be a one-time deal, let’s look at the opening kickoff of the second half. Once again, Georgia’s first coverage guys don’t even make it to the 25. The returner has at least 5 more yards before he’s challenged, and he actually ends up around the 34.

UK return


Post 2008-2009 Men’s Basketball Preview

Thursday November 13, 2008
SEC Tournament Champs

Your defending SEC Tournament champions open the 2008-2009 season this Friday night. Sounds good to say, doesn’t it?

But like the tornado which triggered the unforgettable championship weekend back in March, the whirlwind finish of last season is a distant memory. It’s back to work for Dennis Felton’s squad, and they’ll try to make progress against an incrementally tougher schedule and looking to replace their starting backcourt and two leading scorers from a year ago.

Departures

It was a treat getting to watch Sundiata Gaines for four years, and he’ll be missed. He did many things well, but of course the most important was his ability to create offense when the halfcourt set broke down. That was usually a blessing, but it was also sometimes a curse as the offense stagnated and waited for Gaines to take on four defenders by himself. Center Dave Bliss was the other senior, and, to borrow a phrase from Dennis Felton, it was gratifying to see a healthy Bliss emerge as a quality player and leader towards the end of the season. The bad news is that his eligibility ended just as he came into form.

Two players are no longer with the program for other reasons. Guard Billy Humphrey was dismissed in June, and forward Jeremy Jacob left the program over dissatisfaction with his role.

The departures leave the Bulldogs without their leading scorers from a year ago (Gaines and Humphrey). They also leave the Dawgs very thin and young in the backcourt without much proven scoring ability.

Arrivals

As the Dennis Felton era continues, you hope each subsequent recruiting class is better than the last, and that seems to be the case this year. Georgia has added quality freshmen up front, on the wing, and in the backcourt.

The highlight of the incoming class is dynamic forward Howard Thompkins. He’ll be counted on to contribute immediately at a spot that’s already a strength of the Georgia team. Thompkins brings a developed offensive game to Athens with the ability to shoot the jumper or get position and score in the post.

Drazen Zlovaric will be an interesting addition on the wing. The Serbian native will bring a little European style to the team and can play away from the basket. His size and athleticism will be a unique matchup for opponents.

Dustin Ware is the heir apparent at the point guard position. Travis Leslie, at 6’4", is a little small to play the 3, but his athleticism is his calling card. Leslie probably won’t be the answer when it comes to outside shooting, but he is a leaper that can attack the rim and throw down some impressive dunks.

Guard Ebuka Anyaorah was expected to be a sharpshooter from outside, but he’s already been scratched for the season with an injury.

Returning Players

The strength of Georgia’s returning players lies up front. Forwards Jeremy Price (8.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG), Albert Jackson (7.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG over the last 20 games), and Terrance Woodbury (11.0 PPG, 33% 3PT, 4.1 RPG) will be the core of this season’s team and can match up with most frontcourts in the SEC. Chris Barnes (2.6 PPG, 2.2 RPG) also returns from an injury-plagued freshman year to provide depth down low.

The returning players in the backcourt were supporting cast members last year. Corey Butler (3.0 PPG) made a name for himself with high-energy defense and some timely shots. Zac Swansey (3.9 PPG) was one of the heros of the SEC Tournament, and he’ll take on a much greater role this year at point guard. Troy Brewer (2.7 PPG, 30% 3PT) is another option on the perimeter, but he saw very limited action as a freshman.

Schedule

The schedule has never really been a point of pride under Felton, but it’s more ambitious this year. The Dawgs are participating in the Preseason NIT, and the quality of competition will depend on how far Georgia advances. Purdue, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Davidson are all potential opponents. There will be the usual early season cupcakes, but there will also be games with Illinois, Virginia Tech, Missouri, and Georgia Tech. We should know plenty about this team before SEC play begins.

Speaking of SEC play, the Dawgs will measure up early on against its SEC East peers. The first three conference games include Tennessee and Kentucky with a road game at Vanderbilt squeezed between them. One late road trip could prove problematic: two of Georgia’s last three conference games are at Arkansas and Kentucky. If the season comes down to needing some wins late in the year, it’s usually tough to get them in Fayetteville and Lexington.

The SEC

It projects to be on the whole another weak group of SEC teams, and what strength the SEC has is heavily tilted towards the East. Tennessee and Florida are the only SEC teams in the preseason top 25. Kentucky and Vanderbilt also get mention. LSU and Alabama are unranked but receiving votes, and that’s about as good as it gets for the West.

What’s noticable this year is a real lack of star power. There are some great players in the league, but there is no Chris Lofton or Shan Foster. The top five players in the SEC might be Nick Calathes, Devan Downey, A.J. Ogilvy, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Smith – again, all really solid players but none comes with the superstar package.

Injuries

As we mentioned above, freshman Ebuka Anyaorah is out for the year. Several other players are dealing with minor, though nagging, injuries entering the season. Thompkins has battled a stress fracture, a knee sprain, and now a sprained ankle, and it has impacted his conditioning. He is not expected to play in the season opener. Jeremy Price and Chris Barnes each had offseason surgery, and Barnes still isn’t 100%. Albert Jackson went down with a scary injury in last week’s exhibition, but it proved to be only a sprained ankle, and Jackson should be fine. Woodbury has had ankle issues of his own.

Outlook

Can Georgia get quality point guard play, and can anyone hit the three with any consistency? Those backcourt questions are keeping dampers on expectations and hopes for the team until answers can be found. Fans expecting a significant leap forward building on the end of last season might be disappointed. Losing the top two scorers leaves a big vacuum, and it’s questionable whether or not the Dawgs can find the firepower to compensate. The preseason consensus again has Georgia fighting to remain out of the basement in the SEC’s tougher division.

A lot will be expected of Woodbury in particular. He came on strong in the postseason last year, and he’s one of the few players on this team who can generate offense inside and outside. If the perimeter game struggles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dawgs ask Woodbury to take on the role of the shooting guard at times. Whether that would mean a bigger look with three post players or sliding someone like Zlovaric or Leslie in at the 3 is a situational decision up to the coaches, but options like that have to be considered if, as expected, offense is slow to come from the smaller guards. Still another option is to play Ware and Swansey at the same time and let Zac try his hand at the shooting guard position.

Unless the backcourt surprises, success will require big nights from the frontcourt as well as transition opportunities created by defense and rebounding. The frontcourt can expect to face some compact zones until someone proves they can bust the zone from a deeper three-point arc.

I’ll be thrilled…with an 8-8 or better finish in the SEC and an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

I’ll be disappointed…with anything like last season’s 4-12 SEC regular season. It’s way past time to move forward.

I expect…between 6-8 SEC wins and an overall win total somewhere around 16-18. I’d like to at least split the four games with Illinois, Mizzou, and the two Techs. They should at least win the first game of the NIT, and it will be a good test to see if this Felton team can do better away from home than some of his others.

I realize that my expectations don’t call for an encore in the NCAA Tournament. The result is that we can likely expect the return of the same discussions about the future direction of the program which the tournament run helped to silence (temporarily) last year. It’s generally accepted that the SEC Tournament title saved Felton’s job, but did it buy him anything more than one more year?


Post Opponent watch

Wednesday November 12, 2008

Georgia Southern (5-5):

Central Michigan (7-2): Fans of the Chippewas can skip their cardiologist appointments. Four of CMU’s seven wins have come by three points or less. Still perfect in the MAC, they enter a key stretch in conference play. They will play on consecutive Wednesday nights against Northern Illinois and Ball State. The big question is the availability of QB Dan LeFevour. LeFevour has been banged up for the past month, and a starter still has not been named for the NIU game. Brian Brunner has been stellar in relief, and his line against Indiana was outstanding (35-53, 485 yds, 4 TD passing, 1 TD rushing). THIS WEEK: @ Northern Illinois

South Carolina (7-3): The good news? South Carolina has won 6 out of their last 7 and has deservedly returned to the rankings after a solid win over Arkansas. Beat Clemson and it’s at worst an 8-4 season with a decent bowl ahead. The bad news? Enjoy the trip to Gainesville. THIS WEEK: @ Florida

Arizona State (3-6): If you need to heal what ails you, play Washington. ASU was able to end a six-game slide by pulling away from the Huskies. It’s noteworthy that the pass-happy Sun Devils got it done with 182 rushing yards against Washington. They should also win this weekend’s game with Washington State before making a final push towards bowl eligibility. THIS WEEK: Washington State

Alabama (10-0): Alabama’s in the position we "enjoyed" at the start of the season. Sure, they’re #1, but everyone seems anxious for them to lose and make way for the real contenders. But unlike Georgia, Alabama keeps winning and won’t let go of their top ranking. Will they slip up before the showdown with Florida? Not likely, but that’s why they play the games. MSU did pull the upset last year. THIS WEEK: Mississippi State

Tennessee (3-7): Despite the resignation of Phil Fulmer, the Vols still had a shot at a bowl bid if they won remaining games against Wyoming, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. In any other year, those would be gimmes, but this is no typical Vol season. Wyoming, who might be looking to replace their own bird-flipping coach, came into Knoxville, collected their paycheck, and left with an ugly 13-7 win. Rocky Top has hit rock bottom. What’s left for the Vols? Two things: one – play spoiler in Vanderbilt’s quest for bowl eligibility. Two – extend the 23-game winning streak over Kentucky. A Vol loss in either game is going to make a bit of history. Oh – and no Tennessee team has ever lost eight games in a season. THIS WEEK: BYE

Vanderbilt (5-4): Is the Tennessee game Vandy’s best last chance for that elusive 6th win? The Commodores are reeling and weren’t in the Florida game for more than 5 minutes. THIS WEEK: @ Kentucky

LSU (6-3): Georgia fans can relate. The defending SEC champion turns things over to a freshman quarterback who starts hemorrhaging killer interceptions. Sound familiar? It’s a down year relatively speaking, but the Tiger defense has kept it from being worse. LSU will be back, and things could be much worse in a rebuilding year. THIS WEEK: Troy

Florida (8-1): Florida’s starts against Kentucky and Vanderbilt made me think how good of a job Georgia did in the first half of the WLOCP. The Gators are doing whatever they want to in the first half these days, and if you give them an opening in something so minute as punt protection, they will exploit it in painful repetition. With the defense playing well, the Gators could most weeks survive an off game from the offense, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem that’s going to present itself. Two years ago it took a few blocked kicks to survive South Carolina’s trip to the Swamp. THIS WEEK: South Carolina

Kentucky (6-4): The Wildcats have to be wondering one thing: did they find something in Randall Cobb, or was that just the Georgia defense? The passing game wasn’t especially explosive, but who needs it when the most basic of running plays will move you up and down the field? Kentucky had a pair of eight win seasons with Andre Woodson. They’re two winnable regular season games away from eight wins and a decent bowl bid without Woodson and with a quarterback situation that would make Auburn and Tennessee hesitant to trade places. Not bad. THIS WEEK: Vanderbilt

Auburn (5-5): Auburn played to its strength and saw Kodi Burns and a trio of tailbacks lead the way to 290 yards on the ground in a 37-20 win over Tennessee-Martin. The story is incomplete without noting that this was a 27-20 game in the 4th quarter and that Auburn rested a few defensive starters. Auburn, though down, still has plenty of motivation in its final two games. Not only are these the traditional rivalry games; Auburn must also win at least one of them to avoid a losing season and avoid missing out on the postseason. THIS WEEK: Georgia

Georgia Tech (7-3): Tech’s ACC title hopes took a big hit with Saturday’s loss at UNC. Though the season has been positive to this point, the Jackets are just 1-3 in their division of the ACC and hold none of the tiebreakers they’d need even if they can beat Miami. Without an FSU fumble, we’d be talking about a team that lost three straight. Tech won’t play another Saturday game until their visit to Athens; a Thursday night home game with Miami wraps up their conference slate next week. THIS WEEK: BYE


Post Say what?

Tuesday November 11, 2008

The Georgia defense has been the focal point of conversation this week, and with good reason. Some go right to coaching. Some note a few key injuries. Others question leadership. Then there’s the lack of big plays from the defensive ends and defensive backs. I think pwd does a good job of laying out the situation here. Lots of different takes on things, but the common tie is that no one is happy with the play of the defense.

That dissatisfaction includes, as you’d hope, the players themselves. Corvey Irvin, Dannell Ellerbe, and Rennie Curran challenged the defense on Monday in a player-only meeting. What came out of the meeting was in part encouraging but also a little disturbing.

First, credit the players for taking ownership of the problem and showing some leadership. It’s not too late to end the season on a strong defensive note. In 2006, the defense was left for dead after allowing a last-minute Kentucky scoring drive. The defense bounced back, started creating turnovers and big plays, and was a big part of Georgia’s memorable wins against Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech.

The disturbing part is that here we are again hoping, for the third straight year, for a November turnaround from the defense. Players come and go, but this is a song we’ve heard before. You’d hope and expect, given the national expectations of the program entering the year, not to hear something like this from Rennie Curran ten games into the season:

“We’ve got to do everything in practice the same way we would in a game. We’ve got to quit joking in practice when we miss an assignment. It’s not funny any more and we’ve got to stop thinking that it is. We just can’t go out there in the game and turn on a switch and be an amazing defense.”

Now I trust no one has the impression that Georgia practices are Keystone Cops routines with a laugh track. Coach Garner more than anyone on the staff gets after his defensive linemen. What we’re talking about is a more subtle erosion of focus relative to the level of competition. These are practice habits forged in the offseason, and I doubt what Curran is talking about is something that has just now come up.

Mark Richt on Sunday was a little defensive and even became somewhat pedantic about the performance of his defense. He deflected questions about scheme by remarking (correctly) that "people don’t get it" and most fans don’t have a clue what the defensive call is on a given play. That’s very true; most people criticisng the Georgia defense think that "cover everybody" would be a better coverage call than "cover one". It might help to know that a fire zone has nothing to do with parking, but even dumb fans could see that something wasn’t quite right with the defense at Kentucky. Darryl Gamble indicated it had something to do with preparation.

“We really didn’t prep for (quarterback Randall Cobb) to run the ball as much as he did,” linebacker Darryl Gamble said. “We really didn’t think that was a main focus and wasn’t really prepared for it.”

The execution and talent angles hold a lot less water after a statement like that. It’s true that the Kentucky option was a new look, but no one should have been surprised by the Kentucky offense running the ball and Cobb doing a lot of that running. In his first start of the year at Mississippi State, he ran the ball 12 times. When he replaced the starter at Florida, he rushed 9 times for a team-high 52 yards. He averaged 4.3 yards per pass attempt in each of those games. What exactly did the Georgia coaches expect to see?

Just in case anyone is unsure: Auburn and Georgia Tech like to run the ball. A lot. Even from the quarterback position. It would be nice if that was a main focus of practice over the next few weeks so that the defense might be prepared for it.


Post Play of the game

Sunday November 9, 2008

Of course Green’s catch was the highlight, but I think this third quarter completion was the most important play of the game:

3rd-8, UGa22 6:35 M. Stafford passed to M. Massaquoi down the middle for 12 yard gain

Here’s the situation. Georgia had just given up the lead and trailed 24-21 after Kentucky converted their blocked punt. The Wildcats had just scored 10 straight points out of the locker room. Remember that this Georgia team saw the game get away from them in the third quarter last week, and it was starting to happen again. Georgia had a net -3 yards so far in the third quarter. Knowshon Moreno had just been stuffed on first and second down, setting up Georgia with 3rd-and-8 from their own 22 and the momentum completely on the other side of the ball.

Massaquoi started as one of three receivers split out right. The line protected well and Massaquoi was able to get separation from cornerback Shomari Moore and in front of safety Ashton Cobb across the middle. Stafford planted and drilled a pass across the middle right to the open Massaquoi.

The completion turned out to be the first of four consecutive completions by Stafford on the drive. The longest was a 22-yard strike to Michael Moore down to the Wildcat 25. Two plays later, Knowshon Moreno took it in from 20 yards out for his second score of the day. Georgia was back ahead 28-24.

Kentucky would score again (twice more, actually) and take the lead back, but the significance of this play and drive was in Georgia’s ability to answer and avoid getting run out of the game in a repeat of the Florida game. Instead of contributing further to the meltdown, the Georgia offense passed a big test and responded. With more sloppy defense and special teams play yet to come, the offense would need this kind of fortitude several more times down the stretch.