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Post What’s the optimal kickoff time?

Wednesday July 30, 2008

There are two topics that seem to get Georgia fans going more so than other fans: 1) identifying our biggest rival and 2) agreeing on the optimal start time for a home game.

We’ll leave the biggest rival (Tech) for another day, but a news item from Mississippi has stirred the kickoff time pot and has started the discussion back up once again. It doesn’t take much.

Ole Miss has announced that it will move its season opener against Memphis to 6 p.m. It’s not a huge change – the original start time was 5:00. The school mentioned the heat as a driving factor behind the change.

"The heat factor played a major role in this decision," said Ole Miss Athletics Director Pete Boone. "We have experienced exceptionally hot weather in Oxford this summer, and we hope to provide as much relief as possible for our fans in the early-season games."

Not paying $50 to see Ole Miss vs. Memphis would seem like a good starting point for fans seeking relief. There are still tickets remaining – surprised?

Anyway, the news from Oxford was enough to get the attention of Georgia fans who are facing a 12:30 kickoff for their opener against Georgia Southern and a 3:30 start for the Central Michigan game a week later. It’s easy to see why many Georgia fans are steamed. The graph below from the National Weather Service shows a typical summertime temperature forecast. The hottest part of the day is between noon and 6 p.m. (no kidding!) with a peak temperature and heat index around 3:00. After 3:00, the temperature and heat index drop gradually and then begin to fall off after 6:00.

If there’s one weather benefit to an earlier start time, it’s that we should miss any rain. Summer storms usually develop later in the afternoon and into the evening. A 12:30 start should keep things dry unless there’s an organized weather system.

A 12:30 start puts fans in the seats at the beginning of the hottest part of the day and then turns up the heat as the game goes on. A 3:30 start puts fans in the seats at the hottest part of the day and provides only slight relief towards the end. A 6:00 start keeps fans out of the stadium for most of the hottest part of the day, and there’s quite a bit of cooldown by the game’s conclusion. If heat is a concern, Ole Miss’s decision seems to make good sense.

High temps

But things are never that simple at Georgia. TV is almost always a factor. Ole Miss’s opener is not televised, so the kickoff time is much more flexible. Georgia’s opener is televised pay-per-view, so you’d still think there could be some flexibility. The Central Michigan game has been picked up by FSN.

Even when you take the heat out of it, there’s still plenty of disagreement about the optimal starting time. It usually breaks down along the lines of age and geography. Older fans are used to the traditional 1:00 kickoff before television began putting games at all hours of the day on every day of the week. There’s also a good chance you’ll be home at a reasonable hour. Younger fans like night games and the all-day tailgate, but the University administration doesn’t appreciate the condition of campus after those late games.

Fans who live in south Georgia have been very vocal in opposition to later kickoffs, and the athletic department does listen to them. That bloc is probably the reason why Georgia has showed restraint in moving kickoff times, but can you blame them? Unless you shell out for a hotel room, you’re arriving home just a few hours from sunrise.

Personally, I’m still of the age where I appreciate a later start. I’m not going to follow up a 7:45 game with a trip downtown anymore, but there’s nothing wrong with a nice, long tailgate. On the other hand, I’m starting to see how tough it is on families the later a game is. I wouldn’t want to keep up with a gaggle of kids through a day-long tailgate and a game that ends after 11:00. It seems as if CBS has it just right with their 3:30 starts…I’ve rarely seen complaints about games starting in the mid afternoon.

Don’t count on Ole Miss’s change to affect any Georgia start time. We’re stuck with 12:30. We’re not the only ones – Florida’s game against Hawaii is also set for 12:30 (due to TV), and they’ll likely have it even worse than we will.


Post A tale of two quarterbacks

Monday July 28, 2008

Play Rodney Garner for a second and tell me which quarterback you’d recruit.

Quarterback A:

11 games starting as a HS junior. Completed 117-of-189 (61.9%). 1,333 yards passing (121 YPG). Threw 10 TD against 9 INT.

Quarterback B:

Rated the #9 QB in the nation and #1 in Georgia by Rivals.com. Offers from Georgia, FSU, and Boston College. Invited to the Elite 11 QB camp.

Seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it? But if you follow recruiting, you probably know that these two blurbs describe the same quarterback. Zach Mettenberger, senior QB at Oconee County, is a walking illustration of potential. At a solid 6’5", he looks the part of a prototypical NFL drop-back passer. He’s wowed coaches at camps with his measurables, and he had an offer from FSU before his junior season even started.

ESPN’s report from the Elite 11 camp observes the same arm strength and intelligence that put Mettenberger on the recruiting radar, notes a lack of speed, and becomes the latest to apply the upside/potential label that can be as much of a curse as it is a compliment.

Mettenberger has a cannon and he has been well coached. He understands the game, knows where to go with the ball and plays with confidence. He has one of the bigger personalities in the group and seems to really enjoy the game.

Mettenberger is a pure drop-back guy. He will need to play in a system that can give him ample protection because he’s not super mobile in the pocket. Saying that, his upside is high and he has a chance to surprise at the next level.

That potential and the made-to-order size and arm strength have been slow to translate into success during games. Next to future Georgia teammate Aaron Murray’s gaudy junior numbers (4,013 yards, 51 TD, 7 INT), Mettenberger’s career numbers hardly register. I admit it can seem a bit incongruous that a quarterback entering his senior season with just over 2,000 career passing yards to his credit is at the same time emerging as a consensus national top 10 prospect at his position.

Some of that disparity might be attributed to coaching and scheme. Last year’s plan to "tweak" an option offense to make better use of Mettenberger met with lukewarm success. Oconee County now has its third coach in four years, and the most recent change brought in a coach from California who is expected to open up the passing game for Mettenberger. The new scheme might suit him better, but can the quarterback and his team succeed with yet another new system thrown at them?

Though college coaches are interested much more in potential than in meaningless high school stats, it will be worth watching this fall to see if Mettenberger’s productivity on the field begins to back up the summer hype and attention from the recruiting services. If he continues to grow into his 6’5" frame and thrives in Oconee’s new offense, the sky is the limit in Watkinsville as well as in Athens.


Post The Georgia QB line of succession

Wednesday July 23, 2008

Aaron Murray has been all over the news this week with some standout performances at two major national prep events. Kirk Herbstreit gushed over Matthew Stafford yesterday at the Elite 11 camp. It’s a good time to be a Georgia quarterback.

Greene and Shockley proved to be a productive and popular tandem, but they might end up being the opening act for an unparalleled level of quarterback talent at Georgia. With Moreno, King, Samuel, and others Georgia’s traditional strength at tailback is as solid as ever, but now the quarterback position looks to be just as deep and talented. At the very least, Georgia might soon have its first first-round draft pick at QB since Johnny Rauch in 1949.

Whenever a high-profile position gets loaded with talent, the depth chart always generates a lot of interest. Who plays, who sits, and – sometimes – who transfers? That will certainly be the case at the key position of quarterback. Stafford is set as the starter for as long as he’s in Athens and healthy, but at some point in the next two years we will once again be looking for a new starter.

The big wildcard of course is Matthew Stafford’s senior season. Does he stay or does he go? His name is all over the mock drafts, and Herbstreit isn’t the first to consider Stafford first round talent. On the other hand, Georgia’s accomplishments and Stafford’s stats in 2008 will have a lot to do with his potential draft position. He’ll have to put up better numbers as a junior of course, but it’s not out of reach. JaMarcus Russell became a top draft pick by throwing for nearly 2,800 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions as a junior. Stafford threw for 2,523 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions last year. A few more touchdowns, a bit more protective of the ball, and he’s right there.

It’s impossible to know Stafford’s decision at this point, so we’ll look at the question from both possibilities.

If Stafford Stays

If Stafford returns for his senior season, the 2009 season is taken care of. The only questions will be further down the depth chart. With two seniors and a legitimate redshirt sophomore on the depth chart, it seems a near certainty that the two incoming 2009 freshmen quarterbacks would redshirt.

Things would become more interesting in 2010. Stafford and Cox would have moved on, and the contenders for the position would be:

  • Logan Gray (RJr.)
  • Aaron Murray (RFr.)
  • Zach Mettenberger (RFr.)

Gray would seem to have the advantage. He’d have seen at least limited action in 2008 and 2009, and the other two would be coming off of redshirt seasons and have only scrimmage experience.

If Stafford Declares for the NFL Draft

A quarterback competition in 2009 would involve the same three guys with one key addition.

  • Joe Cox (RSr.)
  • Logan Gray (RSo.)
  • Aaron Murray (Fr.)
  • Zach Mettenberger (Fr.)

At first glance, it almost seems like 2006 all over again. You have a career backup who suddenly rises to the top of the depth chart as a senior. Fans, perpetually attracted to that new recruit smell, will be likely more interested to see a pair of promising freshmen.

But I suspect that Joe Cox would do more to hold on to the job than Tereshinski did in 2006. The presence of Gray also complicates things, and it’s possible then that at least one of the true freshmen would redshirt. If you asked the Georgia fans who pay attention to these things, I suspect most would expect Gray to win the job if only on the basis of what they remember from G-Day. I would just hope that the situation doesn’t mirror 2006 in that the position is unsettled – to the detriment of the team – into the middle of the season. The depth chart at the end of the 2008 season will at least tell us who the favorite is going into spring.

The "cleanest" scenario seems to be if Stafford stays for his senior year. Gray would be ready to step in as a redshirt junior, and Murray and Mettenberger would continue to develop until their turn to fight it out as juniors. It might seem absurd to think that we’d have to wait until 2012 to see a quarterback as promising as Murray take the reigns, but isn’t that preferred to having to turn to a new freshman every four years or so? We value depth and the ability to turn over experienced players every few years at positions on the offensive and defensive lines, and Mark Richt looks to be setting up the quarterback position to do the same.


Post Are you…that Georgia fan?

Friday July 18, 2008

Earlier this week Doug pointed to this handy quiz where you could find out if you were "that guy". Other than letting the occasional "my bad" slip, I think I came out of the quiz OK. Since Doug also brings us the Friday Random Ten+5, we’ll steal borrow heavily from his format to present 5 ways to tell if you’re "that Georgia fan". Yes, we’re only six weeks from kickoff, and pretty soon we’ll be face-to-face with…that fan. At one point or another, this has probably been most of us.

You wear red pants.
Admit it: you don’t wear the red pants hoping that you go unnoticed. They look pretty damn sharp, and you’ve embraced your inner attention-whore. The red pants are widespread enough now that the pants by themselves aren’t enough to make someone "that fan". Not everyone rocking the red pants is a tool, but tell me you’re surprised by what this guy is wearing:

Red pants – check. Black polo – check. White hat (possibly mesh, possible reading "Herschel for Heisman") – double check.

You start the "drunk obnoxious Georgia fan" cheer.
Calling the Dawgs is as much a part of the pregame ritual as being, well, drunk and obnoxious. Put them together and you should have the perfect cheer, right? But the novelty tends to wear off when it’s 11:30 a.m. and it’s already the 29th time this morning you’ve heard some lush with no rhythm take three or four minutes to slur, "Whut’s that comin’ down thuuuu track?" Bonus points if your version includes "all dressed up in red and black."

You’re the tailgate emcee.
We all have our game day playlists. Division of labor at a tailgate is a good thing – you need someone who knows how to work the grill, someone who could zero in on a satellite signal from the deck of an Alaskan crab boat, and good tunes help too. Your friends might love your clever mix of David Allan Coe and acceptably mainstream hip-hop played at 130 decibels, but the guys three cars down who are just trying to watch Gameday wish you’d catch bird hepatitis.

You get involved in sit down / stand up arguments.
I’d like to think we live in a world where standing and sitting at a ballgame is less scripted and regulated than a Catholic Mass. By God, if I want to jump up when Rennie Curran adjusts someone’s spine or if I want to kneel in fervent prayer on 4th-and-1, I will. But there is a give and take here. The only thing worse than the "down in front" nazi is the guy who stands on principle knowing there’s an elderly fan or kid behind them who can’t see.

You provide play-by-play and color commentary to everyone sitting around you.
We all talk about what’s going on, but I can see that the last play was a Southerland run that gained 4 yards. Why, yes, the defense is in man coverage. If you could only run down to the sideline and get some info on that injury, I could turn my radio off. Bonus points if you a) ever put on the Munson voice or b) launch a rant on the wrong player or coach. (Um, dude, Chandler was on the sideline for that whole series.)

Have a great weekend! Only six of them left until we have better things to do.


Post Is it time to expand Sanford Stadium again?

Wednesday July 16, 2008

The shockingly high ticket cutoffs announced yesterday led many in message board land to ask the obvious question: is it time to expand Sanford Stadium?

There seem to be no immediate official plans to increase capacity. Ticket manager Tim Cearley told UGASports.com, "I have seen no mention or plans for a stadium expansion. I have not been given any indication from the Development Office that there is a plan or study for doing so."

That doesn’t mean we can’t kick the idea around. It’s a discussion worth having. You’ll see below that my view on expansion is generally negative in the "do you realize what it will take to do this?" sense. Any expansion worth considering will likely be the single most expensive undertaking in the athletic department’s history. It would also place significant additional stresses on the campus and city of Athens. Those concerns don’t mean that there aren’t solutions, and we might even be willing to live with some of the discomforts.

Pros

  • Revenue. At $40 per game, adding 5,000 seats means $1,200,000 in revenue over a six-game home schedule. That’s before any additional Hartman Fund contributions to secure the right to buy those tickets. The costs of expansion will be great, and it will take some time to recover those costs, but eventually an expansion should become a revenue generator if demand remains high.
  • Status. Sanford Stadium still trails only Tennessee’s Neyland Stadium among SEC schools in terms of capacity, but the neighborhood has become a bit crowded lately with recent expansions at Alabama and LSU. Would an expansion make Georgia the largest stadium in the SEC or the nation? Likely not. But it might get Sanford close to 100,000 seats. This might seem like a silly point, but college football – especially in the South – is all about the big. Coaches salaries are big. Even mundane facilities like offices and weight rooms are now caught up in the arms race. Bigger is better, and that applies to the stadium as much as anything else.
  • Accessibility. With a point total of over 10,000 necessary for first-time season tickets, most recent alumni won’t sniff season tickets for years. Alums from my era in the early 1990s never had this problem (there were even such things as non-renewable season tickets!), but Georgia football is now accessible to fewer young alums and families. There’s no right to watch Georgia football in person, but you hate to turn away fans who want to support the program and start their own traditions of bringing their families to Athens for game day.
  • Fixing what’s broke. I’ll bring this up again in the cons, but expansion will force improvements in existing areas of the stadium such as concessions, entry gates, and concourses. These areas need work even at the current capacity.
  • The view is changing anyway. Almost everyone speaks wistfully of the view out of the open end of the stadium whenever expansion comes up. It isn’t special because of what you see (I mean, is Baxter Hill really that scenic?), but the sense of open space is what makes it work. Between the Student Learning Center and work going on around the Tate Center expansion, that view is changing on its own. If, as planned, a mirror of the SLC is built on the southeast corner of Baxter and Lumpkin, you’ll be looking at a lot of brick.

Cons

  • Additional costs. Whether Sanford Stadium is expanded by filling in the west (bridge) end zone or extending the Tech Deck around to the east, there will be some very expensive consequences. Either option will require rerouting or tunneling a main campus artery. Construction on the east side would also have to deal with an active rail line. Construction on the west side would affect not only the bridge but also the Tate Center and the improvements currently underway for Tate 2. This extra work before actual stadium work begins will add significantly to the cost of the project.
  • Parking. As recently as ten years ago, free parking was the norm on game day. One could park as close as the corner of Baxter and Lumpkin for no cost. The combination of campus construction, stadium expansion, and the expansion of Athletic Association-controlled lots has put a price tag on much of the parking on and close to campus. Free parking remains in nooks and on the campus’s southeastern fringes.
  • Finances. Though the Athletic Association continues to operate in the black and bring in record revenues, it still carries close to $90 million in long-term debt. The last major expansion in 2003 cost $21 million, and it didn’t involve much of the extra work that the next expansion would. Would the fiscally conservative athletic department be willing to take on that additional debt with other projects like the Butts-Mehre expansion still ahead?
  • Campus concerns. The state of campus after big games has drawn the attention of President Adams and other campus leaders. Their suggestions and proposals for dealing with a trashed campus have only added to the friction between Adams and the football fan base. Will the University administration be receptive to adding several thousand more fans onto crowded streets and a crowded campus?
  • Stadium bottlenecks. The Gate 6 improvements showed how much has to be done around the rest of the stadium. Concession and bathroom lines are long, concourses are narrow and cramped, and it can take a while to get through the gate if you arrive close to game time. Those are problems that would have to be addressed before another major expansion.
  • Tickets can still be had. The record-high cutoffs have led to a bit of overreaction, and I admit I contribute to that above by implying that Georgia football is somehow accessible to all but the loyal and the wealthy. That’s not really the case. Half of Georgia’s home games each year are more or less throwaways. Tickets for Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, and Vanderbilt will be easily available on game day and you’re almost certain to pay less than face value. Tickets for the other home games will be a little more difficult to come by, but they can still be had even if you have to use a broker like StubHub. The same applies to road games. If a $10,000 donation is too rich for your blood, I would be willing to bet that you could get into every regular season Georgia football game – home and away – this season for less than $1,000. If all you want to do is see a few games at Sanford Stadium with your kids, you can do it and pay less than face value for the tickets if you aren’t picky about the games.
  • Demand is cyclical. Paul is right on. Times are good now, and they’ll be that way for the short term (wait til you see next year’s home schedule!). But reality is that it won’t be that way forever. Demand for Georgia football will probably always be strong, but the peaks will ebb and flow. Planning for stadium capacity according to those peaks will end up leaving a lot of excess capacity. If you don’t believe me, look at the stands during the second half of the season opener.

What do you think? Is expansion inevitable? Is Sanford at ts optimal size? Are the parking problems and other concerns exaggerated? Is preserving the view and aesthetics of the stadium overrated? Are there other considerations or benefits everyone else is overlooking?


Post Could Stafford break Greene’s record?

Wednesday July 9, 2008

David Greene had plenty of accomplishments at Georgia, but his NCAA-record 42 wins as the starting quarterback is probably the most impressive. Sure, it’s ultimately a team accomplishment, but quarterbacks usually end up – deserved or not – with exaggerated credit for wins and blame for losses.

Getting to 42 wins is tough. First you have to be in a program strong enough and consistent enough to win over 10 games per season over your career. That eliminates most people right there. But most programs that strong rarely have to go into game one with a freshman at such a key position as quarterback. Tim Tebow didn’t start until his sophomore season. Peyton Manning started his freshman year at #3 on the depth chart until injuries cleared the path.

Greene’s record took not only the good fortune to be here during one of Georgia’s best runs in program history; it also took the unusual opportunity to start out of the gate and hold the job for four seasons. Let’s not forget that he also took plenty of beatings and stayed healthy. The combination produced a career for the record books.

When it took nearly half a season to establish Matthew Stafford as Georgia’s starter, Greene’s record appeared safe. But after a successful 2007 season and some promising years ahead, it’s now a somewhat realistic question: could Stafford break Greene’s career wins record?

The numbers tell us that it’s theoretically possible, but it would take consecutive seasons on the level of 1980 and 1981 to do it.

Greene’s record is 42 wins. Stafford currently has 17 as a starter. There are 28 possible games for Georgia over the next two seasons (including possible SEC Championship games and bowl games). To tie Greene’s record, Stafford would have to start in 25 more wins. That could be a perfect 14-0 season and another 11-2 year, a 12-2 season followed by a 13-1 campaign, or any other combination. The feat seems nearly impossible without winning SEC titles and major bowl games.

Of course back-to-back 14-0 seasons would put Stafford at 45 wins and shatter Greene’s record. And the rapture will come and take us all.

The catch is that an ultra-successful 2008 would likely make Stafford a prime NFL draft candidate. If Georgia wins 13 or 14 games in 2008 to put Stafford within striking distance of the record, does he stick around?

So what do you think? Your answer has a lot to do with how high you see Georgia’s ceiling over the next couple of years. With "only" ten wins per year, Stafford won’t even sniff the record. Does he even break 40 wins as a starter? Georgia would have to win more than 11 games in each of the next two seasons just to get Stafford to 40 wins. Does he come up just short of Greene? Or do the Dawgs have their most successful consecutive seasons ever and push Stafford to the 42-win mark?


Post Inside the selection of Uga VII

Monday June 30, 2008

Uga VI will be laid to rest inside Sanford Stadium this afternoon. It says something about Georgia fans that the Athletic Department has had to make it clear that this is a private ceremony. Still, given that they have made the time and the date of the interment public information, I really hope that a crowd doesn’t gather on the bridge. There’s a fine line between paying your respects to Uga and becoming one of those Barbaro freaks.

After Uga is buried, the process of naming a successor will begin. This is no small job. It’s not just about looks. The ideal Uga must also have the personality and the temperment to handle the job week in and week out in front of SEC crowds. Just any white bulldog won’t do.

The last transition was public and smooth. Uga VI of course was selected and introduced while Uga V was still alive, and Uga V had a chance to retire before passing away. But now we face the scenario of an active Uga passing while in office, and an interregnum is a new experience for many Georgia fans. It’s been a while since we’ve gone through this process, so I’m here this morning with a look inside the process.

The process begins this week after the burial of Uga VI. Living members of the University’s Circle of Honor and football players with retired numbers will arrive in Athens beginning this afternoon, and they will sequester themselves on several floors of the Georgia Center for Continuing Education (Uga’s Athens residence during a home game). They will take several days to become familiar with the candidates and deliberate. Most of the day will be spent in seclusion in their Georgia Center rooms reflecting on the qualities of Uga while consulting "Best of Munson" DVDs and the 2008 Phil Steele.

During this time the Circle of Honor must decide what kind of mascot they want. Uga VI was large and playful with a sense for when it was time to play ball. The Circle might decide that they want a more hard-line, no-nonsense mascot to keep the team on task during this difficult season ahead. They might want a young, smaller pup who has a little more animation than his father. Less-conservative members of the Circle might even support a mascot with some carefully-hidden brown patches as a sign of inclusiveness and an appeal to widen the growing Georgia bandwagon.

Then they will vote. Each day the members of the Circle of Honor will cast a ballot with a single name. Damon Evans, whose duties as Athletic Director include administrative oversight of this process, will read aloud the result of each ballot. If no candidate receives two-thirds of the votes, the Circle of Honor will retire for the evening, and the ballots will be shredded and used to line the cages of the various candidates.

Once a candidate gets at least two-thirds of the votes, members of the Seiler family will remove the other candidates from the room. The Uga-elect will be presented with a dummy of an Auburn player (an actual Auburn player may be substituted) and a television cable. If the Uga-elect correctly lunges at both items, Sonny Seiler will immediately place the bulldog on a bag of ice and speak the name of the new mascot while proclaiming him Defender of the End Zone and Protector of That Big Air-Conditioned Dog House. Seiler may choose any appropriate name; there is some speculation that Uga IV was nearly named Herschel I. But it’s expected that this year’s new mascot will be named Uga VII.

Seiler will then place a custom-made red sweater on the new mascot. The Chapel Bell will ring. Finally, Seiler will emerge from the lobby of the Georgia Center and announce, "Habemus canum y’all" (we have a dawg). The new mascot will emerge and make his public debut as he is taken for a walk around the Georgia Center grounds, possibly stopping to anoint the vegetation along Carlton Street.

The Seilers and the new mascot will return to Uga’s summer residence in Savannah to prepare the mascot for his first public appearances. His first big foray into the public world will be at Picture Day in August, and he’s only two months away from his first game when he will lead the Bulldogs into action against Georgia Southern.

Georgia fans wait on North Campus

Eager Georgia fans wait outside the Main Library for news of the next Bulldog mascot.


Post That was fun

Wednesday June 25, 2008

What can you say about a 19-10 loss? Georgia had the momentum, the pitching matchup they wanted, and even a 5-0 lead, and it vanished in an inning. Within the span of three innings, Fresno State scored 15 runs and made Georgia fans put away the champagne and start biting fingernails.

Georgia’s been in this position before during this tournament. They won the first game of the Super Regional, but N.C. State struck back against Georgia pitching to take Game 2 going away. Georgia bounced right back in Sunday’s game with a 9-run first inning. They’ll need that kind of resiliency against a Fresno State team that has proved to be no fluke and every bit the team that sent some very good clubs packing earlier in the tournament.

Simply put, the championship comes down to Georgia’s pitching. Georgia has plated 17 runs in two games against Fresno. Though Fresno will be able to start a regular starter in tonight’s game, so will Georgia. The Dawgs have hit Fresno’s better pitchers during this round, and there’s no reason to doubt their ability to score a fair amount of runs.

The question then lies with some experienced Georgia pitchers. Moreau. Weaver. McRee. Fields. Georgia doesn’t exactly have to piece together a staff tonight if the guys they send out there can give a decent performance.

You’ll hear all day that Fresno has taken momentum, and the Cinderella talk will be in overdrive (do we need to come up with a drinking game for this?). Forget that. Georgia is throwing Moreau, an experienced Sunday starter. The same toughness that has been with this team from Arkansas through the regional and Super Regional and in three comeback wins already in Omaha is still there. Georgia has come too far to let one setback sink them, and I think we’ll see a fired up and focused Georgia team ready to bring a title home.


Post We have all been here before

Tuesday June 24, 2008

You can’t really blame ESPN for dwelling on Fresno’s underdog status (though we know they were preseason top-20, won their conference and made the NCAA Tournament three years in a row, etc., etc.). They would be the lowest-seeded NCAA champion (had you heard that?), and it’s a compelling story. ESPN has to sell the game to impartial viewers who don’t give a damn about Georgia or Fresno State. Offering the opportunity to watch history sells. Fresno may or may not rank up there with 1985 Villanova or the 1980 U.S. hockey team, but you have to push a story if you want someone other than Fresno and Georgia fans to watch the game.

That said, those of us who have watched more than a few games of this CWS can probably recite word-for-word what we’ll hear from the booth tonight:

  • Did you know Gordon Beckham made the final out for Georgia in the 2006 CWS? Me neither.
  • Hey – how about that Fresno player with the busted ligament. He’s playing anyway! And what’s with that guy’s wierd batting grip?
  • The ball leaves the pitcher’s hand in the light, but it arrives at the batter in the shadows. That’s just wacky.
  • One more shot of the Massinari cheering section, please.
  • Brainwashed by endless Coke Zero ads, Georgia will be suing for "dawg infringement." And driving away in a VW.
  • Here’s an obscure referece to a pro player from 15 years ago. That kid really reminds Orel of Kevin Seitzer. I was just going to say the same thing.
  • Fresno’s tough. Like their coach. Like a steak at Ryan’s. Like facing Josh Fields.
  • The last couple of champions haven’t been a national seed. And whaddayouknow…here we have an unseeded team.
  • No, seriously…back to the Massinaris. I hear the kid looks like Miss Nevada or something.
  • Georgia is apparently the third team Matt Cerione has played for during this CWS.
  • I mean Fresno’s just a bunch of gamers. A team of utility players. It would be like having a football team of Jacob Hesters.
  • David Perno – who played for the 1990 national champion, by the way – got his team’s attention in the offseason by making them haul rocks from a local quarry to build the new Vince Dooley statue on campus.
  • We’ll now have someone who spent the first week talking about ice cream interview the most brilliant financial manager in the world.
  • Is comparing Fresno to the Bad News Bears really telling the story? Don’t we really have to ask if this compares with David facing the Philistine?

…and most of them are going pro in something other than sports.

UPDATE: And who can forget all-important updates about photos of Big Brown’s loose horseshoe (quick! get Zapruder on the case!) or Shaq’s scathing freestyle rap?


Post CWS Game 1 Live Blog

Monday June 23, 2008

Let’s get this going. First pitch is in a few minutes, and we’ll try to be here for the duration.

6:59: First, a note from Anthony Dasher over on the DawgVent… it’s good to know that Mark Richt will be there to support the team. We’ve seen Roy Williams and Fresno’s Pat Hill.

7:01: Our cat is curled up next to me on the couch. Before you write this off as meaningless, she’s been in this position for most of the postseason games, and she first started watching games with us during the SEC basketball tournament. Yep. Things are looking good for the Dawgs.

7:06: No question how ESPN is setting the narrative for this series. Fresno’s story is a good one, but, again…they were ranked coming into the season.

7:09: Dave Perno: “We’re in great shape with our pitching and just need to execute.” Fresno coach: “We had a handful of (pitchers) who just can’t go today.”

7:12: And we’re off. Bulova first pitch time, 7:12. GO DAWGS!!!!

7:20: A leadoff walk doesn’t cost the Dawgs; Holder strikes out two to strand a Fresno runner at third. Close call at first on the second out. Was Poythress off the bag?

7:30: Dawgs draw first blood! A hustle play on a leadoff hit by Peisel pays off as he scores from second on a Poythress single. Georgia was a strike away from wasting the leadoff double, but Poythress continues his clutch hitting from Saturday. Georgia 1 – Fresno 0 after 1.

7:37: Another leadoff runner stranded in scoring position by Fresno. Holder gets through the second with far fewer pitches.

7:42: Fresno’s defense showed up tonight. Heck of a play by the 3B. Cerione hit one to the fence…missed by a few feet. Georgia 1 – Fresno 0 after 2.

7:45: Fresno #9 batter hitting under .200 launches one to tie the game. Holder’s weakness against NC State and Miami was homers off of pitches left up, and hopefully that’s the last one of those tonight. Holder bounces back with a tough play to throw out the next batter. The ball hit off Holder’s right foot, and he’s trying to work it out. Dodson is stretching in the pen.

7:54: Holder stays in the game and retires the rest of the side including his second K of Fresno’s #2 hitter.

7:57: Fresno is a bunch of “gamers”. They’re talking about Fresno as if they were a white running back. Really heady, gritty guys. I haven’t heard them called “throwbacks” yet, but it’s coming.

7:59: Three solid defensive plays retire Georgia in order. The Dawgs are hitting the ball hard, but Fresno is bringing the defense. Holder will remain out there for Georgia. Georgia 1 – Fresno 1 after 3.

8:02: Lyle Allen might have stolen a HR. What a catch up high against the fence.

8:05: Holder retires the side in order after the leadoff scare. Georgia needs to start making the Fresno pitcher work and make them burn a few pitchers. Beckham’s leading off, and this is a great chance to make his impact on the CWS.


Post Stafford’s efficiency

Tuesday June 17, 2008

The Senator asks an interesting question this afternoon.

I keep wondering the degree to which Stafford’s completion percentage/efficiency rating is important, not so much in regard to his personal legacy, but rather in the context of Georgia’s offensive scheme.

Good question. Just what’s so important about completing 60% versus 55%? I’ll put in my two cents here.

Let’s get the drops out of the way. Every team has them, so Stafford isn’t going to get some Drop Correction Factor (even in the South Carolina game). I’m not going to analyze every pass from 2007, but it was my belief that drops were more or less down in 2007 and on par with most teams.

If you grant that Georgia has a run-oriented scheme, you’d expect that the quarterback’s most important role would be to sustain drives when the running game can’t. Even allowing for the occasional first and second down throws to keep the defense honest, third down is what most of us would consider the passing down. So the third down conversion rate seems like a pretty important performance indicator for the quarterback in an offense like Georgia’s.

As you might expect and hope, the Bulldogs were better on third down last season than they were during Stafford’s freshman campaign. Georgia was 8th in the SEC in 2006 with a 39% conversion rate on third down. In 2007, the Bulldogs had improved to 4th in the conference with a 44.8% conversion rate. In absolute terms, the difference is also impressive: Georgia converted 20 more third downs in 2007 than in 2006. It’s kind of a self-perpetuating system. Because Georgia was able to convert third downs at a higher clip, they kept drives going and had 15% more third down opportunities in 2007.

OK, you say, we did better on third downs, but how much of that was because of some good tailbacks, and how much can we credit to an improved Stafford? It’s hard to tell, but we do know that the run-oriented Bulldogs got more first downs through the air than on the ground last year. But here’s the important takeaway:

63% of Georgia’s completions came on third down.

That stands out, but it’s not a huge shock because, again, third down is generally a passing down even for run-based teams. The point is that incremental increases in pass efficiency will pay the biggest dividends on those all-important third downs. Here’s how.

Using Stafford’s attempts from 2007, an improvement to a 60% completion rate represents just 15 more completions over the season. That’s little more than one more catch per game. It doesn’t seem like a lot – one pass not dropped here, one better throw there. But using last season’s results as a rough guide, that’s potentially ten more third down conversions through the air. Ten more third down conversions in 2007 would have put Georgia over 50% on third downs – second-best in the SEC behind only you-know-who.

So, for what it’s worth, that’s my guess as to why efficiency is such a priority (other than "more completions = good"). Even with a star tailback and quality quarterback, the Georgia offense is still middle-of-the-pack in the SEC. Stafford’s additional completions are likely to be ones that keep drives alive, and an offense that is converting third downs close to 50% is likely to be very productive.

(By the way, how important was third down to LSU last year? The Tigers converted 104 of 223 third downs – numbers which, even considering their 14-game schedule, dwarf the rest of the SEC. Their conversion rate of 46.6% was good enough for top 3 in the league. That’s an awful lot of chances though, and it’s to their credit that they were able to keep grinding out drives and converting. Les Miles probably still went for it half the times he didn’t convert on third down.)


Post Never in doubt

Monday June 9, 2008
Dogpile

After the wonderful dismissal of rival Georgia Tech in the regional round, it was reasonable to wonder if the Georgia baseball team could get back up for a series with an unfamiliar opponent. Georgia’s recent postseason opposition had been regional or conference foes like South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, and Georgia Tech – all very familiar, all usually very good, and there was no problem getting up for those teams.

But here was N.C. State. The two programs don’t play each other. They, more or less, don’t recruit against each other. N.C. State’s story was one of a solid but not traditionally-strong program having a great season and seeking its first trip to Omaha since 1968. Georgia fans probably even cheered the Wolfpack when the boys from Raleigh dispatched South Carolina in the regional. Though a trip to the College World Series is always its own motivation, I wondered in the back of my mind if a letdown was possible after the euphoria of taking two games from Tech.

It didn’t take long into the series to discover that 1) N.C. State was a very formidable opponent and 2) it would indeed be very enjoyable sending them home.

It started on Friday when Wolfpack coach coach Elliott Avent asked the home plate umpire to examine Trevor Holder’s cap for a foreign substance. (The cap, of course, checked out clear.) It continued on Saturday when Georgia star Gordon Beckham was hit not once but twice by Wolfpack pitching. It came to a head Sunday afternoon when Wolfpack reliever Drew Taylor hit Lyle Allen following a Joey Lewis home run in the bottom of the 6th. Intentional or not, the pitch just below Allen’s head fired up the Bulldogs to finish the job and enjoy the beating as if it were an SEC or regional rival. Though the umpires and coaches did a good job of keeping the emotion from boiling over, the Bulldogs made sure to get their revenge on the field.

  • "We wanted to make them sorry for Lyle getting hit," catcher Bryce Massanari said. "It woke up the sleeping dogs. After that, we just wanted to pour it on and embarrass them."
  • "Embarrass them," (Gordon) Beckham said about Georgia’s mindset. "I think we got like eight runs after that, didn’t we?"
  • "We were asleep," (coach David) Perno said. "We were in the dugout going ’12 outs. 12 outs, we’re going to Omaha. Nine outs.’ All of a sudden, they woke the bats back up."

If a pitch aimed at a Georgia batter’s head led to a five-run explosion in the bottom of the 7th, Wolfpack pitchers must have been peppering the family members and girlfriends of the Bulldog team prior to the game. Georgia erased any concerns about a tense nailbiter by putting up nine runs in the bottom of the 1st inning. The fact that the only scoreboard drama of the day came when State closed to within six runs indicates how complete of a win it was. On offense, eight Georgia singles combined with two walks and a hit batsman did the damage in the 1st. On defense, Nick Montgomery had yet another strong outing, and he was helped with strong plays in the field by Ryan Peisel, Lyle Allen, Matt Cerione, and Gordon Beckham.

While history might remember Allen’s HBP as the spark for Georgia’s final push at the plate, the first few runs actually came at a very important moment in the game. LSU’s dramatic comeback against Cal-Irvine on Sunday demonstrated that no lead is ever safe in college baseball, so the Wolfpack’s three runs in the top of the 6th were enough to get one’s attention after four straight scoreless innings from the Bulldogs. Gordon Beckham’s first home run of the day, a solo shot to left, got the Bulldogs back on the scoreboard and helped to stem what might have been the beginning of an NCSU comeback. Lewis’s two-run blast completed the scoring for the inning, and Georgia had answered the visitors’ challenge and ensured a relatively anti-climatic finish.

There were no need for Keppinger-esque heroics, and Josh Fields was, if anything, sloppy in closing out the 17-8 win. Instead, the lopsided win provided an opportunity to reflect on the many accomplishments and storylines across the roster. From Beckham’s star power to the emergence of Nick Montgomery to timely hits from the bottom half of the lineup, Sunday’s win gave us the chance to enjoy it all.

Click here for an outstanding gallery from UGASports.com of the celebration.


Post If it walks like a playoff…

Thursday June 5, 2008

I was reading this post at CFR that was, at face value, just another innocent-enough post about the playoff discussion ("jeez – he’s about to make another playoff post," I hear you say). One sentence in particular took me off on a tangent.

The Plus One is effectively the gateway to — shudder — a real playoff in college football.

I’m probably (almost certainly) not the first to raise this question, but is the "plus one" the point of no return or did we already pass the playoff event horizon with the introduction of the BCS?

We hold the regular season sacred, but why is the national champion not named immediately after the regular season? That’s not a ridiculous question; until 1968 the final polls were released before the bowls. The interim between 1968 and 1998 moved the focus of the national title to the bowls, but there was still very little formal structure in terms of determining a consensus champion. The Bowl Coalition and Bowl Alliance attempted to put some framework around the postseason, but the introduction of the BCS in 1998 was the biggest shift to create a single championship game between the nation’s two best teams.

What is the BCS, then, if not the mechanism behind a two-team playoff? Is the current discussion a question of playoffs vs. BCS, or does it all just boil down to resistance against the "bracket creep" of expanding our current two-team playoff to four teams or more?

I don’t ask these questions as gotchas for those who consider themselves playoff opponents. Truth is, there aren’t only two sides on which to come down on this topic. Unless you’re for a return to the ’80s-era bowl free-for-all or a wide-open 64-team tournament, there’s a ton of middle ground with plenty of tradeoffs to talk about. But asking "how big do we want our playoff to be" versus "do we want a playoff at all" are two very different questions, and the time to have that discussion might have been ten years ago.


Post Around the Dawg Nation

Wednesday June 4, 2008

By now you know that Georgia’s SEC opener against South Carolina will be at 3:30 on CBS. It will be the nation’s first look at this title contender, and I couldn’t think of a better network on which to make our national debut.

It’s not that Georgia hasn’t had significant wins on other networks. The Sugar Bowl destruction of Hawaii was on FOX, and the overtime defeat of Alabama was on ESPN. But FOX managed to turn a dominant bowl win into a trudging and tedious broadcast that just…wouldn’t…end. ESPN’s production of the Alabama game turned on Mike Patrick’s bizarre fascination with Britney Spears.

But great games on CBS can be transcendent. From the South Carolina and Auburn games in 2002 to the LSU game in 2004 to the Florida and Auburn games last season, appearing on the Canine Broadcasting System has been great for the team. They haven’t always won on CBS, but we’re assured of a first-rate production and broadcast team. While other networks flounder when a close game turns into a rout, the broadcast booth becomes one big party at CBS.

Pendulum Swings Back

Deserved or not, the SEC tied its own record with nine teams in the 2008 NCAA Baseball Tournament. While there is plenty to back up the SEC, I think the reason for nine teams is much simpler: the SEC received only five bids last year – a result that was at least as controversial, if not more, than this year’s nine bids. This year it was the Pac-10 who got five teams in, and defending champ Oregon State was a casualty of that fact. We’ll see if the committee takes that into account next year.

Good News

Finally, it’s always a little weird to get personal with someone whom you "know" only through bits and bytes, but it’s nothing but fantastic news that Doug’s father is doing well. It’s an incredibly jarring experience when the men we hold up have a brush with their own mortality. Father’s Day will have a little more meaning than usual this year.


Post Shocker: Coaches want to lock in commitments sooner

Thursday May 29, 2008

I’ve written before about an early signing period for college football. It’s not that it’s an awful idea or would ruin college football, but something about the motivation has always seemed a little questionable to me. I’m not surprised that the SEC coaches have voted to push the idea forward, but the coverage of this news I’ve read so far doesn’t do much to diminish my primary concern with the early signing period: we tend to hear a lot more about why this is great for the coaches and college programs than we do about benefits for the student-athlete.

That said, I don’t have much of a problem with the idea as endorsed by the SEC coaches. But at the same time, it really doesn’t address many of the reasons why people claim we need an early signing period. The key detail in the SEC proposal is that prospects would only be eligible to sign early if they don’t take official visits.

Think about what that condition implies. Aside from the "been a fan all my life" prospects who jump on their dream offer, why would a prospect want to forgo the official visit even if they only visit their chosen school?

To the kind of prospect whose commitment is that solid, it doesn’t matter when signing day is. The kid isn’t going anywhere and really isn’t receptive to other recruiting overtures because his intent is obvious. So the program has no need to "babysit" such a prospect during the final months of the recruiting process, and there isn’t much pressure or attention put on someone who makes his plans crystal clear in March or whenever he gets his dream offer.

The prospects for whom recruiting pressure, endless phone calls, and media attention are unpleasant realities are the undecided. These are exactly the prospects who should be taking their visits, thinking things over, and shouldn’t be rushed into "getting it over with." Once they do start taking visits, the SEC plan wouldn’t allow the high-profile undecided prospect to sign early anyway.

Who is speaking up for the student-athlete in this discussion? We’re getting no end of woe-is-us stories from the coaches, but forgive me if I don’t melt because some guy whose salary is pushing seven figures has to make a few extra phone calls. This is the one time in the process where the student-athlete holds a bit of the upper hand and when changing his mind won’t come with a substantial penalty. You can’t say that for the job-hopping coaches.

Tony Barnhart writes, "The rationale for the rule is that more and more players are committing early and would like to sign and avoid the final six weeks of recruiting." They would? How do we know? Barnhart had plenty of quotes supporting the coaches’ positions, but who is carrying the torch for the prospects claiming that they "would like to sign and avoid the final six weeks of recruiting?"

ESPN’s Chris Low makes a bit of a reach when he discusses the coaches’ motivations for the vote. (Emphasis added.)

One of the reasons most of the SEC coaches favor an early signing period is because so many prospects commit early and then hold everybody hostage as they look around in January and February.

That’s overstating it just a little, isn’t it? I admit to being familiar only with Georgia’s recruiting, but the Dwayne Allens and A.J. Harmons of the world seem much more like the exception than the rule for a given class. And the "hold everybody hostage" line is just over the top. While there are always those who love to play the game and string everyone along (again – they’d still be signing in February anyway under the SEC proposal), I just don’t recall a lot of the early commitments shopping around into January.

Bobby Petrino makes a quality point: "We got here in December and were able to change some minds of some young men in our state. Had there been an early signing period those kids might have been already signed." That’s an issue for the prospect as well. The college regular season is still ongoing in late November. Few, if any, personnel moves would have been made by this point. Prospects would still run the risk of signing with a school about to change the head coach or any number of assistants.

We’ve heard enough on the subject from the coaches. The next reasonable step seems to be getting a good sample of prospects candidly on the record. Would an early signing period really be something that they want? Would they be willing to give up the plum official visits if it meant that they could end the recruiting process two months early? Would they feel pressure to sign early if it meant that their scholarship offer depended on it?