If I had one issue with the ticket plan, it’s this: I was disappointed to see that only 3,000 tickets will be reserved for students. I understand why: the first half of Greg McGarity’s letter outlining the new ticket policy clearly laid out the financial stakes, and as many people as possible need to be paying the full $150/game. Students also won’t contribute as much to the struggling Athens economy that depends on home games. There are still some very good reasons why students should get a larger share:

• Students are in a much lower-risk group than the typical fan. Of course COVID-19 has affected all age groups, but on average those around college age are much less likely to face severe disease or worse if there is transmission among the crowd.
• Donors will be able to be right back in their same seats next year and beyond. Students, on the other hand, have a limited time to enjoy the experience of attending a game as a student. Student tickets are already constrained by a lottery. Alumni can recall how their passion for watching Georgia football and their lifelong relationship with the program was cultivated in the student section. Even fewer students will have that experience now.
• Students are more likely to make noise. With attendance limited, you want to maximize the impact of those who are in the stands.
• If tickets were limited to students, groups of fans without tickets would be less tempted to come to Athens to tailgate or score a ticket.
• Perhaps most importantly, students won’t have to travel to the game. By the first home game, students will have been in Athens for at least six weeks. Their loose networks of contacts will have stabilized. Local initial outbreaks might have settled down. Other fans will travel in from areas with varying levels of outbreak. Tens of thousands of people descending on Athens from all corners of the state four times during the fall will establish potentially new networks of transmission when those fans return home.

I trust that a lot of thought has been put into keeping the gameday experience as safe as possible for those who are able to attend. Of course any policy comes down to compliance and enforcement, and we’ll see how that goes.

They’re going to try. We know what the modified SEC-only schedule looks like, and now we know that a limited number of fans will be able to see it in person. The SEC will allow each school to set its own attendance policy subject to state and local regulations. The only common guideline is that only 500 visitor tickets will be allocated for each game, and those tickets will likely be held in reserve for the visitor’s family members and official traveling party. In other words, road games won’t be part of the new ticket application.

Georgia’s policy is similar to others we’ve seen. Tickets will be kept to 20-25% of capacity with social distancing enforced. Masks will be required outside of the seating area. Tickets will be allocated in blocks of four. This means roughly 20,000 tickets will be issued for each of Georgia’s four home games, and that figure includes tickets set aside for visitors, students, guests, faculty, administration, and all of the other usual uses. The rest of the tickets will be offered to donors, and they’ll have the option to request from one to four games based on contribution level with no guarantees. The general public will not be able to order tickets directly through Georgia.

Of course with capacity reduced, the policy also includes information about refunds and options for 2020 Hartman Fund donations and season ticket orders. Fans will have to decide to opt in or out of the new ticketing system to help UGA gauge demand and allocate the tickets. Fans will also have to decide what to do with the money already deposited for the 2020 season. Fortunately there are options regardless of the decision to opt in or out.

The big takeaways of the policy were:

• Your seat location and priority level won’t be affected if you choose to opt out. This is very important for those who might have reservations about attending games.
• 2020 donations and season ticket payments won’t roll over to 2021 but can be refunded or turned into a tax-deductible donation for 3x Hartman Fund points.
• Unless your annual donation is over $5,000, you will be able to request at most one home game this year, and it’s not a sure thing. They’ll use the same system used for road games and postseason tickets, and demand at the top levels will determine how many tickets are available lower down the priority system.

I’d like to see who actually ends up using the tickets. Tailgating and games likely won’t be the elaborate social and networking opportunities we’re used to. No one will get more than four seats, and they won’t be in the location you’re used to around the same people. If (on-campus) tailgating is limited or prohibited, you’ll park, go to the game, and leave – maybe after grabbing a bite to eat. Will attending a game be less appealing with the social element stripped down?

Certainly there are some younger donors in the Magill Society, but a large share of Georgia’s top donors are older fans in more vulnerable age groups. Will they simply distribute their tickets to younger relatives or try to make some money reselling their tickets? Will they simply pass and open up tickets for donors at lower priority levels? I’m interested to see how that secondary market develops. Will there be much excess demand for those scarce 20,000 tickets? With Auburn and Tennessee coming to town, I expect there will be.

It’s also worth pointing out that even this revised policy is subject to change. It’s not likely that more tickets will be issued, but it could certainly go the other way if conditions merit. Venerated events like the Kentucky Derby and the Masters have announced that they’ll proceed this fall without fans or patrons. The schools would prefer to salvage as much ticket revenue as possible, but if it comes down to holding a game with no fans versus no game at all, the stands will be empty.

Georgia’s revised conference-only 2020 schedule was released Monday night. It’s surreal to write about a schedule that stands a fair chance of further revision or outright cancellation, but it’s what we have for now.

Even if it ends up never taking place, the 10-game SEC slate looks mighty attractive, and it’s going to be tough going back. Give me Tech and maybe another P5 nonconference game, and you’ve got a compelling schedule in the years to come. The revised home schedule isn’t great, but the original schedule wasn’t much to look at either. Tennessee and Auburn are still on there, and a visit from Mike Leach’s MSU Bulldogs replaces Georgia Tech and a couple of forgettable contract games.

Here’s the complete SEC schedule, and here’s Georgia’s slate:

Sept. 26: at Arkansas
Oct. 3: Auburn
Oct. 10: Tennessee
Oct. 17: at Alabama
Oct. 24: at Kentucky
Oct. 31: Bye
Nov. 7: vs. Florida (Jax)
Nov. 14: at Missouri
Nov. 21: Mississippi State
Nov. 28: at South Carolina
Dec. 5: Vanderbilt

• Attention will be focused on the front of the schedule, and consecutive games against Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama jump out. What might be more important to Georgia’s season is the midseason stretch from Alabama through Florida. There will be three straight games requiring out-of-state travel, and Kentucky has proven to be a credible threat in the division. Alabama and Florida need no hype. By that point in the season, you’ll also have the early wear and tear begin to take their toll – remember how much the fortunes of 2013 changed from September to October.
• In 2019, Georgia’s November SEC schedule was widely described as a “gauntlet.” The four-game stretch from Florida to Texas A&M featured three opponents ranked in the top 16 of SP+, and Missouri was still a respectable #36. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year. Missouri and Mississippi State will still be working through first-year coach issues. We know better than to overlook South Carolina, especially on the road, but Georgia should once again be favored. If Georgia comes out of Jacksonville on top of the division, they’ll be heavy favorites to finish the job.
• Yes, that’s only four home games out of ten. It’s Georgia’s turn as the home team in Jacksonville, and the Bulldogs won’t have any of the nonconference games that would have filled out the usual home slate. Georgia will have to travel out-of-state for six of its ten games.
• That itinerary means that Georgia will go six weeks in the middle of the season without a true home game. That’s not unusual; the game in Jacksonville often means an extended road trip during October even in normal seasons. There will also be the usual pre-Florida bye week during the road trip.
• Since this is all improvised, several traditional dates were sacrificed. Georgia-Auburn moves to the beginning of the season, but that was expected in the original schedule. The Iron Bowl is no longer the last game of the season. Alabama’s “Third Saturday in October” opponent is now Georgia rather than Tennessee. Georgia-Florida won’t be a Halloween trick or treat, but the November 7th date is more in line with when the game was played prior to 1992.
• A schedule release usually leads us to think about travel plans. Georgia hasn’t been to Fayetteville since 2009. For the first time in years, the Kentucky trip is in October. Keeneland’s Fall Meet will run through October 24th, though attendance details haven’t been released yet. Columbia, SC might even be pleasant in late November, and it will be nice to avoid the furnace that is a mid-September game over there.
• It might be best to hold off planning elaborate road trips. The SEC will limit visiting teams to just 500 tickets, and there almost surely won’t be tickets sold to the general public.
• I hope your WLOCP reservations were refundable. Maybe you’ll just extend your plans another week.
• The Jacksonville NFL schedule wasn’t much help in divining the date of the WLOCP. Jacksonville will host the Georgia-Florida game and an NFL game on consecutive days. That’s quite a long night for stadium operations people, but it would be made easier if organizers aren’t expecting many people at either event.
• It’s small potatoes in the scheme of building a schedule from scratch during a pandemic, but I do hope Georgia’s administration at least tried to preserve the date in Jacksonville. It’s the only neutral-site game in the conference, and so it’s the only game for which both sets of fans would travel. Even if fans aren’t allowed at the game (or are limited), a lot of people have money wrapped up in the weekend of October 31st.
• When schedules began moving around in the spring and summer, a tantalizing possibility was a double-header with a big Georgia home game and the Masters. Now we know that Georgia won’t host a home game on November 14th (they’ll play at Missouri), and Augusta National won’t have patrons at the Masters. You’ll be watching both events from home.

The January commitment of 5* quarterback Brock Vandagriff seemed to solidify the Georgia QB room for the next several years. Todd Monken had an upperclassman starter with P5 experience (Newman), younger talent to develop (Beck and Mathis), and now adds a blue chip prospect waiting in the wings.

We know Kirby Smart is never done recruiting, and he’s not going to pass up the opportunity to improve even a deep position like quarterback. Adding J.T. Daniels might seem like gilding the lily, but we know that you never want to be without options at quarterback. In terms of fitting into the room Daniels falls between the experienced Newman and the underclassmen. He has starting experience at Southern Cal, but his progress has been put on hold with a knee injury. He has a couple of years of eligibility remaining, so he can be developed with a longer-term outlook.

It’s important to continue to improve the position because there are reasons to have reservations about all of the available quarterbacks:

• Daniels: He’s less than a year from an ACL injury. We’ve seen players return from ACL injuries in a year, but we’ve also seen how it can take some time to rebuild the confidence that allows someone to perform at a peak level. Chubb had a decent 2016 after his 2015 injury but wasn’t his explosive self until 2017. Zamir White was only just beginning to round into form at the end of 2019. Daniels can’t redshirt, but would he benefit from a year as the backup? There’s also a risk his transfer waiver could be denied in which case he’d have that extra year of recovery regardless.
• Newman: He’s a favorite of the analysts, but it’s tough to make a splash at a place like Wake Forest unless you’re putting up Heisman-like numbers. His stats dropped off as the competition became tougher and key receivers were injured. Is his success dependent on a strong surrounding cast, or will he be able to elevate an unproven group of skill players?
• Mathis: Mathis hasn’t played in a college game, but he has spent some time on the practice field. At this point only Bennett has more time as a member of the team. He’s been cleared to resume activities with the team, but brain surgery is nothing to mess around with. The program has, and will continue to be, appropriately cautious with Mathis’s well-being.
• Beck: Inexperience is the obvious knock. Georgia struck true freshman gold with Fromm, but that’s rare. The depth and experience at the position means that Georgia won’t have to rush Beck along.
• Bennett: He’s been a career reserve and has yet to break through. Coaches might have confidence in his experience and ability if their hand were forced, but there haven’t been any indications of Bennett moving past that reserve role.

Newman will likely start the season, but the depth chart could go any direction after that. A lot of it will depend on the fitness of Daniels and Mathis especially early in the season. Setbacks to either could reshuffle the order or even force Beck into action, but you’d hope that Georgia can find the kind of production and stability they need from among those five.

This year’s unusual NFL Draft was a welcome gulp of water while we are parched for live sports. It was hardly a return to normalcy, but it did give us a reason to look ahead to a time when sports and football would be back. I kind of liked the virtual format. Seeing all of the prospects in their homes surrounded by family gave the event a more raw and humanizing touch relative to the slick production the league had prepared in Las Vegas.

The Bulldogs had seven players drafted including two first-rounders. The seven players selected matched 2019’s total, and Georgia had one more player selected in the first three rounds this year than a year ago. Georgia’s draft showing could be called…fine.

A second straight season with seven draft picks seems like good news, but at the same time expectations might have been a little higher. The hype factory at the AJC speculated about a record draft, tying or surpassing the program-best eight picks. Instead it was a tough night for some of Georgia’s higher-profile draft entrants. Jake Fromm slid from high-round projections to the fifth round. He won’t be a lock to make the Buffalo squad. The lack of scouting opportunities outside of the combine due to the pandemic surely hurt Fromm as well as injured players like Lawrence Cager. Fan favorite and Lou Groza award winner Rodrigo Blankenship seemed like a lock to sneak into the late rounds, but he remained undrafted as other specialists came off the board. Defensive leader J.R. Reed also went undrafted.

Georgia’s defense might have relished the “no-name” label applied to the squad that led the nation despite no superstar standouts, but that anonymity also continued into the draft. Tae Crowder, selected with the draft’s final pick, was the only member of the productive defense to be drafted. In fact, let this sink in: Georgia has had more offensive linemen (4) drafted in the past two seasons than defensive players (3).

(How fantastic and improbable was it to see Crowder drafted? He was a converted tailback best known for his recovery of a squib kick in the Rose Bowl, earned a starting job at inside linebacker, and held off several 4* and 5* prospects as he became a Butkus Award semifinalist. Now he’s the only player drafted from the nation’s top defense. Kindley is a similar story. He didn’t switch positions, but as Georgia got better and better at recruiting offensive linemen, it was always assumed that the 3* Kindley would give way. He didn’t, and his left guard spot was one of the more stable positions on the offensive line.)

If there was a sure winner based on Georgia’s 2020 draft results, it was someone no longer associated with the program: three of Sam Pittman’s offensive linemen were among Georgia’s draft crop. Four of the five starting offensive linemen on the 2018 team have been drafted. That’s a testament to what everyone saw with their own eyes: Pittman was able to harness the resources available at Georgia to elevate the program’s offensive line recruiting. Kirby Smart identified that as a need from his opening press conferences, and the draft results speak to Pittman’s and Smart’s success. It also sets a bar going forward for Matt Luke.

When a program leans as heavily as Georgia does on its production of NFL players as a selling point for recruiting, the draft is the scoreboard. Numbers will be scrutinized especially relative to Georgia’s peers. National champion LSU had a record-tying 14 picks. Alabama, after a “disappointing” season that left them out of the playoff, produced nine picks – all in the first three rounds. Georgia’s seven selections placed fifth among all schools, tied with Clemson, Florida, and Utah.

The drafts of the past two seasons saw a large drain of talent from the offense at all positions. The pendulum should swing back towards the other side of the ball in 2021 as the offense retools and younger players from the 2018 and 2019 defenses become draft-eligible. Georgia has had three consecutive recruiting classes rated #1 by Rivals, and they’ll begin to become draft-eligible in 2021. Fans expect to see that influx of talent pay off in wins and titles, but it’s also important for Kirby Smart to see those top-rated classes turn into not just draft picks but *high* draft picks.

Georgia’s 2020 NFL Draft Picks

• Andrew Thomas (1st – NY Giants)
• Isaiah Wilson (1st – Tennessee)
• D’Andre Swift (2nd – Detroit)
• Solomon Kindley (4th – Miami)
• Jake Fromm (5th – Buffalo)
• Charlie Woerner (6th – San Francisco)
• Tae Crowder (7th – NY Giants)

Marc Weiszer wrote a piece last week about season ticket renewals during these times, and I was happy to contribute my perspective. I was surprised to see renewal rates so high, and I expect Greg McGarity is also (pleasantly so). As I shared with Weiszer, our decision to go ahead and renew came down to a couple of points:

• We considered ordering tickets as a moderate-risk bet that there would be football this fall.
• The possibility of a refund if the season were canceled (or played without fans) lessened the risk.
• We like our location(s) in the stadium and didn’t want to be displaced after 20+ years.
• We are grateful to be able to place that kind of a bet right now.

The last point is difficult – I know so many are struggling right now either with immediate needs or with crippling uncertainty hanging over them. That renders any other consideration meaningless. Georgia has been flexible with dates and payment options, but in the end season tickets are an expense that’s suddenly become an extravagance for many people. Even if the season is canceled and refunds issued, many can’t tie up money for that long.

There’s one scenario for which we had to accept some risk: what if they decide to open the stadiums and we aren’t comfortable returning?

There’s no question that things are going to be muddy for a while even after this first wave of infection passes. There will be no clean break and no “over”. Until there is a vaccine, the job will be playing whack-a-mole against isolated outbreaks of an easily-transmitted virus. Meanwhile, much of the nation is under intense pressure to reopen. Sports will be a big part of that reopening. There’s a symbolism to the return of sports, but there are also real financial considerations. We’ve seen the panic of schools faced with the loss of the football season that funds the whole operation. We’ve heard about the campaigns to support arena and stadium staff. We know what kind of economic impact sports has on small towns like Athens.

I don’t suggest (Mike Gundy aside) that leagues would willingly put athletes or fans at risk, but their standards and risk aversion will necessarily be colored by the pressures they face to play ball. Gabe DeArmond pointed out that it’s not news that coaches want to play. It will be news when someone with a financial stake in the game says that we shouldn’t play. Blutarsky recently touched on a question I’ve been thinking about for a couple of weeks. Coaches and administrators want business as usual – or at least to get back out there as soon as possible. Fans sorely miss sports. The real question though is much more personal: when will you be comfortable being packed shoulder-to-shoulder with 92,000 random fans who have traveled in from across the southeast?

The change of the past month has been swift. In early March, I was sat among fans from Tennessee to South Carolina to Mississippi at the SEC women’s basketball tournament. Sure, we knew to wash hands a little more carefully and be suspicious of coughs and fevers, but the games went on. A little over a month ago Georgia played a men’s basketball game in Nashville. It all ended abruptly that week: first the NBA pulled the plug. (Rudy Gobert was irresponsible, but how many lives did his recklessness indirectly save?) College conference tournaments began postponing and then finally cancelling games. The NCAA tournament wasn’t going to take place. Within a week the SEC had ended spring sports. Now we’re separated from friends and loved ones, and a simple trip to the grocery store is fraught with peril. That’s a severe and sudden psychological and behavioral shock, and it’s not easily reversed.

I told Weiszer that I wouldn’t attend games under current conditions. That implies limited testing and an unproven toolkit of therapeutic responses. The hope (and the assumption) is that we’ll be working under a different paradigm later this year. That means more widespread testing to identify and contain outbreaks, contact tracing, and more proven therapeutics that will reduce the risk of mortality or even severe illness for those who are infected. Most every plan forward outlines those elements as requirements along the long road from shelter-in-place to a vaccine. The extent and effectiveness of those remedies will determine which pieces of society can safely resume and at what level.

The “how” of sports returning doesn’t concern me so much. It’s something I’d like to see very much, but it’s not really under my control. Whether it’s an abbreviated schedule, a delayed start, a season without fans in the stands – those are all just ideas based on our current understanding of how things might work. It’s good to think about those things now, and you’d expect any decent organization to have an array of plans available in order to be flexible when the time comes to reopen. Certain administrators and pundits have taken heat for pessimism about playing this year, but a lost year is a possibility that can’t catch anyone off-guard. Time (and the virus) will help to instruct us about under which circumstances sports may return. The same applies to travel, retail, tourism, entertainment – any activity that brings people into shared spaces.

What I can control is my participation. That’s the agency any of us has in whatever comes next. You’ve likely seen the survey that found that over 60% of fans wouldn’t be comfortable returning to the stands until a vaccine is available. It’s possible that many respondents were spooked by the sudden onset of the pandemic and might moderate their views as time goes on. It’s still very likely that fans will be slow to return in person even as games get underway. I expect we’ll see the same in other areas of life as things are allowed to reopen.

Public health regulations might allow games to occur. Students might return to campus, and other necessary conditions might be met. Each of us will still have our say in whether we feel safe enough to attend. At most I’ll lose the cost of a ticket. It would hurt to miss something I love dearly. Fortunately I don’t have to make that decision right now. As Weiszer writes, we’ll “now have the months ahead to see what a Bulldogs football season might look like in 2020.” It’s foolish now to make forecasts whether or not there will be a football season and what form it might take. Renewing season tickets now bought me time to watch and wait and make a more informed decision months from now. I hope progress is such that there’s an easy decision to make.

While most public statements are optimistic about a normal college football season in the fall, we also know that most every sport is kicking around alternative plans. There’s too much money at stake; games will be played in some form if authorities give the go-ahead. That might mean games with no fans in the stands. It might mean a delayed start to the season. Coaches have raised alarms and proposed solutions to the amount of time necessary to prepare for the season. One suggestion even moves the season to the spring of 2021.

That idea does raise plenty of questions and issues, but, again, there will be desperation to fill the coffers. The implications of a “season-ending injury” are certainly worth thinking about. I wonder what a roster for a spring season might look like:

• How many top seniors and draft-eligible underclassmen will skip all or part of a season that extends into spring semester? Unless the NFL also delays its 2021 draft date, the first three months of the year are dedicated to focused draft preparation once the college season ends. Workouts, combines, all-star games for draft-bound players, pro days – all of these pre-draft activities occur early in the year. Basketball (especially women’s basketball), baseball, and softball have drafts much closer to the end of the season – sometimes even before the college postseason is over. Those players play complete seasons, but we know that the physical demands of football make it a different animal. Who will want to go from the grind of a college season straight into NFL OTAs if the lack of a recuperation and conditioning period hurts their chances of making a roster spot?
• Would early enrollees be eligible to play in spring games? Currently they may participate in bowl practices before classes begin, but they can’t play in bowl games. If they’re enrolled and taking classes at the start of the season, what would distinguish them from any other member of the team?

Interesting piece from Seth Emerson about the resources (and limitations) of keeping Georgia’s football program up and running while we are all asked to be at home. Athletes, along with all other students, must rapidly adapt to online courses. They won’t have access to on-campus facilities for meals and conditioning (unless they are rehabbing an injury.) Communication between staff and players is governed, and detail-obsessed coaches won’t have the kind of oversight they’re used to. At this time of year before spring practice the contact with players is primarily done by the strength and conditioning staff. Even that contact is regulated.

There are some exceptions, as (Georgia compliance director Will) Lawler explained: “If they ask and say: ‘Hey, I’m here at my house, I don’t want to go to a gym, can you give me some body-weight workouts?’ or something like that. You could provide it to them. But you can’t require it. There’s no reporting back. There’s no any of that. There’s some flexibility. This thing kind of moves pretty quickly.”

My first thought on reading that quote: it sure is nice to have not one but two experienced strength coaches on staff now. Both Scott Sinclair and Scott Cochran have years of experience developing individualized offseason workouts for football teams. Now that’s all Georgia, or any team, is allowed in terms of player development. With gym equipment likely limited or unavailable altogether, creativity will be tested. I know Cochran was brought in to be an on-field coach, but I would expect him to be a valuable resource for Sinclair in this unusual time.

Cochran’s expertise could be valuable in another way. The offseason program requires steady monitoring and accountability even for the most self-disciplined athletes. Now at home and isolated from that support structure, it’s easy for things to slide and bad habits to form. Cochran hasn’t had much time to get to know the team, but one of his key roles at Alabama was as the motivator and the guy that kept players pushing past their limits. His energy and constant reinforcement will help keep things moving in the right direction.

Did you see the video featuring several coaches encouraging students to finish out the spring semester? An appropriate and necessary message for the student body of course, but there’s a self interest too. The NCAA might come up with all sorts of waivers and exceptions by the time students return to campus, but for now they’ll have to be in good academic standing and on track. With the spring and summer semesters moving online, much of the academic calendar will have passed by the time football players report back. Without on-campus tutoring, class checks, counseling, and other academic resources, the need for academic discipline and self-motivation while in isolation will be as great as it is for player development.

A familiar name is back on top of SEC women’s basketball. South Carolina took a small step backwards in 2019 after a dominant four-year period, but they’ve come roaring back in 2020 with an undefeated conference record. As much as 2017 was the breakthrough season for Dawn Staley and her Gamecocks, this year’s edition might be more well-rounded with few weaknesses. South Carolina enters this year’s SEC tournament in Greenville as the overwhelming favorite. It would be a shock if they didn’t reach the finals. If there’s to be much drama this weekend, it’s likely to come in the early rounds as teams jockey to become South Carolina’s championship game opponent. Four teams tied for third place with 10-6 records, and they could all be involved in head-to-head knockout games in Friday’s quarterfinals.

The SEC might not have many of the nation’s best teams, but some of the nation’s best individual talent will be on display in Greenville. Rhyne Howard and Chennedy Carter are among the nation’s top five in scoring. Rennia Davis has a flair for the dramatic big play. Chelsea Dungee, and really any Arkansas guard, can take over a game. Unfortunately teams have had to deal with injuries to many of those same star players. Howard and Carter missed significant time during conference play, forcing Kentucky and Texas A&M to lean on their supporting casts to remain near the top of the standings. LSU’s Ayana Mitchell was lost for the season, and the Tigers have had mixed results since. The good news is that Carter and Howard are back in form, and SEC fans will get to see Carter in postseason action for the first time in two seasons.

It’s also been a year of youth. It’s not just top teams South Carolina and Mississippi State showcasing impact freshmen (though they certainly did.) Teams from Missouri to Florida to Vanderbilt introduced players who will be handfuls for the next three seasons. Only one of the league’s top ten scorers is a senior, and three of the top 11 are true freshmen. That’s a positive for the future of the league, but it’s also meant that most teams don’t have the seasoned depth to make much noise outside of the conference. The SEC could get as few as six or as many as eight NCAA tournament bids this year, though only South Carolina and Mississippi State look to be first round hosts. Much of the spotlight in NCAA women’s basketball has shifted west this year. UConn isn’t as dominant outside of their conference. Notre Dame will miss the NCAA tournament. The Pac 12 though has been wild with a pair of national title contenders and enough good teams to cause chaos. Baylor is just cooling their heels waiting to defend their 2019 national title. The SEC hasn’t made many waves nationally this year – except for the powerhouse in Columbia.

Georgia’s Path Through the Tournament:

Wednesday: Bye
Thursday / Second Round: vs. #8 Alabama: Noon ET SEC Network
Friday / Quarterfinals: vs. #1 South Carolina: Noon ET SEC Network
Saturday / Semifinals: 5:00 pm ET ESPNU
Sunday / Finals: 2:00 pm ET ESPN2
Complete Bracket Here

The Field

(LY – last year’s finish, PS – coaches preseason projection)

1) South Carolina (7-22, 16-0) (LY-2nd, PS-2nd): We warned last year that if you couldn’t beat South Carolina in 2019, it might be a while. The Gamecocks still finished second in the league, but they were upset by Arkansas in the SEC tournament and “only” reached the Sweet 16. They’ve added the nation’s top signing class and quickly find themselves back on top of the SEC and the nation. They recorded the program’s first win over UConn and beat both the Huskies and Baylor by double figures. They’ve had only a couple of stumbles with an early loss to Indiana and a close call at home against Mississippi State, but this is a complete team that’s improved over the season.

Dawn Staley has done a wonderful job of mixing the young infusion of talent with her two senior leaders. Mikiah Herbert Harrigan spent her first two seasons in the shadow of A’ja Wilson, but she’s developed into a well-rounded senior who can score inside or outside, rebound, pass, and defend. The offense flows through point guard Tyasha Harris. Harris can create offense and scores 12 points per game, and she set the program record for assists.

Staley augmented that senior duo with four ESPN top 100 5* freshmen. Three of them have started all 30 games for the Gamecocks. Relying on that many freshmen in key roles might have been the reason why the coaches didn’t project the Gamecocks to win the league, but this group has been up to the job. Guard Zia Cooke might eventually replace the senior Harris as the floor general, but with Harris running the show Cooke has been free to do damage as a combo guard. Cooke leads the team in three point attempts and makes, but she also leads in free throw attempts. Cooke isn’t afraid to drive to the rim and draw contact. Forward Aliyah Boston was both the SEC Freshman of the Year and Defender of the Year. She was an imposing figure inside right out of the gate and has the most blocks in the conference. Boston isn’t just a defender; she’s even with Herbert Harrigan as the team’s leading scorer and shoots an efficient 61% from the floor. Brea Beal is what you want from a wing: someone who can play on the perimeter but is also at home posting up inside to take advantage of her size.

So South Carolina has perimeter offense, interior offense, a rim protector, the league’s best distributor, good wing play, depth, and one of the game’s best coaches. That’s why they enter the tournament perfect in the league and the odds-on favorite to beat the field for their fifth tournament title in six seasons.

2) Mississippi State (25-5, 13-3) (LY-1st, PS-3rd): A step back was inevitable. The final pieces of a core group that played for two straight national titles broke through to win an SEC tournament title last season. The roster has all but completely turned over since that incredible three-year run. It says something about the foundation Vic Schaefer built that the Bulldogs could lose so much talent over two seasons and only fall back to a solid second place finish in the SEC and a borderline top ten national ranking. MSU hasn’t been as dominant as they’ve been in recent years, but they’ve had more than enough on most nights. A narrow loss to Stanford was their only non-conference blemish. They came within two points and a controversial call of beating South Carolina in Columbia. A rematch with the Gamecocks on a neutral court (as much as Greenville, SC can be “neutral” for South Carolina) might be interesting, but the Bulldogs have shown that they’re not a lock to reach the finals.

Jordan Danberry is the link to those historic MSU teams. She was granted a fifth year of eligibility after an NCAA appeal and is a graduate student. Danberry is second in the SEC in steals and chips in 12.5 PPG. She’s the lone senior though, and the team’s top two MSU scorers are underclassmen. Jessika Carter emerged as a worthy heir to Teaira McCowan at center. The sophomore leads the team in rebounding and blocks and scores nearly 14 PPG. MSU also has an impact freshman: forward Rickea Jackson is the first McDonald’s All-American to sign with the Bulldogs. Much like former star Victoria Vivians, Jackson is a long athletic forward who can score anywhere on the court. Also like Vivians, Jackson led the team in scoring as a freshman and will be one of the SEC’s top players years to come.

The Bulldogs lost three conference games including a two-point heartbreaker at South Carolina. Other teams have pushed them, and the Bulldogs can go through droughts in the halfcourt offense. They were 1-8 from outside in an upset loss to Alabama, and the team’s perimeter scoring usually depends on the streaky shooting of Chloe Bibby. As one of the league’s top teams in generating turnovers, they rely on transition for explosive offense. More often than not, they get it. They’re set up for another finals clash against South Carolina, but this Bulldog team has shown just enough vulnerability that you can’t quite pencil in that rematch just yet.

3) Kentucky (21-7, 10-6) (LY-4th, PS-4th): Matthew Mitchell’s team has only finished out of the top four twice since he took over the program. SEC player of the year Rhyne Howard’s midseason fractured finger raised the difficulty level of another top four finish. Thanks to a win over Mississippi State, the Wildcats were able to emerge from a four-team tie with the highest seed. It’s tough to say that Howard’s absence cost Kentucky a shot at a higher finish. Losses to Florida and Arkansas were certainly winnable games, but Kentucky fell to LSU and Vanderbilt with Howard in the lineup.

An upside to losing a star like Howard is that other players have no choice but to step up. Kentucky has six players shooting at least 33% from outside. Only Arkansas shoots better from outside. The team as a whole takes care of the ball, and Kentucky is third nationally in turnover margin. Howard also leads the team in rebounds, but four players have pulled down at least 100 boards. There’s no question that Howard is the star, but this is still very much a team that’s better than the sum of its parts. Forward Keke McKinney has become an emotional leader of the team after battling her own injuries. Sabrina Haines is shooting 40% from outside, and senior point guard Jaida Roper has been the veteran hand guiding the whole operation.

The Cats are fun to watch just to see so many moving parts working together, but occasionally this year the system has ground to a halt. Kentucky will have to avoid those lapses in order to advance through a fairly difficult bracket. Mississippi State would love to get another shot at a Kentucky team that beat them earlier in the season, but a quarterfinal against a very desperate Tennessee team might come first. The Wildcats just edged the Lady Vols thanks to a career-high 37 points from Howard. Does Howard have it in her to carry this team deep into the weekend?

4) Texas A&M (22-7, 10-6) (LY-3rd, PS-1st): The Aggies were preseason favorites due in large part to the return of Player of the Year candidate Chennedy Carter. Carter had an excellent junior season and finished second in the SEC in scoring, but she missed seven games during conference play with an ankle injury. A&M lost the game in which Carter was injured and went only 4-3 during her absence. Carter returned in a big way with 37 points in a win at Tennessee, and it seemed as if the Aggies were back on solid footing. They fell to Alabama and South Carolina in the final week, and that stumble means a much more difficult path to the finals relative to a third place finish. They still earned the double-bye and will advance to Friday, but they’ll be challenged right away in the quarterfinals. Arkansas upset the Aggies in the SEC semifinals a year ago, and the clash of styles between Gary Blair’s deliberate inside-the-paint squad and Arkansas’s bombs-away approach is always interesting.

Fortunately for the Aggies the players behind Carter were experienced and capable enough to prevent complete collapse without their star. N’dea Jones and Ciera Johnson are among the SEC’s top ten in rebounding. Kayla Wells remains another strong scoring option at guard. This is very much a Gary Blair team: they don’t shoot a ton from outside, but they hit a decent percentage. They win with defense, protecting the rim, and owning the glass on both ends of the court. Throw in a typical night from Carter, and it’s a very successful formula. If Carter is out or having a poor night, as she did in the loss to Alabama, A&M will struggle to keep pace with teams in the top half of the league.

5) Arkansas (22-7, 10-6) (LY-10th, PS-5th): The Razorbacks were the surprise story of the 2019 tournament. They began as the #10 seed and pulled three upsets en route to the championship game. The offensive firepower of Arkansas was never in doubt, and they were able to put it all together for a deep run. Mike Neighbors’s team built on last season’s strong finish for a very respectable 2020 season that represents the program’s highest SEC win total. They didn’t vault to the top of the standings, but they have remained a borderline ranked team all season and proved that last year’s tournament run was no fluke. A couple of surprise losses to Georgia and Florida kept them just on the outside of the top four. As devastating as their offense can be, defense has been shaky at times and can have them on the wrong side of an up-tempo game if the offense isn’t in top form.

Chelsea Dungee continues to be one of the more dangerous scorers in the SEC, but she hasn’t had to match the ridiculous productivity she had a year ago. Arkansas spreads the scoring around and has three of the top eight scorers in the league. Any of the “Splash Sisters” (Dungee, Amber Ramirez, and Alexis Tolefree) can lead the team on a given night, and it’s a defensive nightmare to find and cover all three in Arkansas’s fast-paced offense. The Hogs lead even South Carolina with 84.4 PPG, and they lead the SEC in three pointers made and attempted as well as three point percentage. They can score inside off of rebounds or transition, but Arkansas will live or die with the outside shot.

6) Tennessee (20-9, 10-6) (LY-8th, PS-7th): With one former Lady Vol standout ousted after last season, Tennessee turned to another former Pat Summitt point guard to turn the program around. Kellie Harper survived the usual attrition after a coaching change and held on to a good signing class. The Lady Vols started strong with a 17-4 record and a 7-1 mark in the SEC. That record was a bit of a mirage as quality wins were few and far between. Tennessee dropped five straight in February as the conference schedule became more difficult. They righted the ship and closed the regular season with three straight wins, but even those wins featured a couple of too-close-for-comfort games against Vanderbilt and Auburn. The Lady Vols enter the postseason with 20 wins, but they’re still not on solid footing for the NCAA tournament. LSU is the lone quality win in their pocket and their only success against the top half of the league. A Friday matchup with Kentucky presents a great opportunity to enhance their credentials, but a loss on Thursday could be devastating.

Rennia Davis has had a productive junior campaign and leads the team in scoring. The Lady Vols are another team that leans on impact freshmen. Tamari Key’s 78 blocks lead the SEC. All-Freshman guard Jordan Horston is a matchup nightmare at 6’2″. But aside from Davis’s 18.3 PPG, there’s not a lot of punch to this team. There are a lot of good, if not great, pieces, and only three players average over 10 PPG. It’s no surprise that a Summitt pupil would continue Tennessee’s long tradition of relentless rebounding and matchup zone defense. The Lady Vols are the SEC’s tallest team, and they use their length to their advantage to disrupt passing lanes, alter shots, and secure rebounds on both ends. It’s become a broken record though – you’re not sure what you’re going to get with Tennessee, and their annual Bubble Watch is still very much a thing.

7) LSU (19-9, 9-7) (LY-9th, PS-6th): The Tigers lost star forward Ayana Mitchell in an early February game against Texas A&M. They were able to hang on for the upset win, but it’s been tough going since. LSU is 3-4 in games without Mitchell, and they’ve dropped four of their last five heading into the postseason. LSU has had some big wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and a sweep of Texas A&M, and those wins should be enough to get them into the NCAA tournament. They’ve also fallen to Missouri, Georgia, and Auburn and could be vulnerable to an athletic Florida team in their SEC tournament opener. LSU was a low-scoring team even with Mitchell, and they rely on good defense and slow tempo to grind out wins. Forward Faustine Aifuwa has had to become the primary interior presence. Without Mitchell’s scoring, the backcourt has had to take on a larger role. Awa Trasi came on near the end of the season. Leading scorer Khayla Pointer is a classic penetrating guard. In typical LSU fashion, this isn’t a great team shooting the ball from outside, but they’ll generate offense with defense, score inside of 15 feet, and make an opponent earn everything they get.

8) Alabama (18-11, 8-8) (LY-11th, PS-11th): At the end of January Alabama was near the bottom of the conference at 2-6. They eeked out a one-point win at winless Ole Miss, avoiding a loss that might have sunk their season. That escape at Ole Miss was a turning point. Alabama went 6-2 in the second half of the conference schedule, losing only road games at Kentucky and Georgia by a total of five points. They enter the SEC tournament as one of the league’s hottest teams and are on a four-game winning streak that includes upset wins on the road against Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Even at 2-6 they had some very close losses including a buzzer-beating heartbreaker at Tennessee. This is a much-improved team, and they’ve gained confidence now that they’ve put a few wins together. The month of February took the Tide from a Wednesday play-in game to the precipice of the NCAA tournament. Alabama is one of the mythical “first four out” according to ESPN’s bracketology, and that leaves them with some very clear motivation in Greenville.

The Tide are led by a fleet of athletic wings and guards who can attack the basket or hit from outside. The offense runs through point guard Jordan Lewis who returns after a season-ending injury a year ago. Lewis is the team’s leading scorer but has also dished out 113 assists. Even at 5’7″, Lewis ins’t afraid to go to the rim. She’s the team’s third-leading rebounder and has attempted 150 free throws – almost twice as many as any other Alabama player. Forward Jasmine Walker is a dynamic wing who leads the team in three-point shooting but also rebounding. Cierra Johnson hasn’t been the force she was in 2019, but she’s still a capable scoring guard. The Tide also have a physical inside presence with Ariyah Copeland who can make teams pay for extending their defense.

9) Georgia (16-13, 7-9) (LY-7th, PS-10th): The Lady Dogs are right about where they were expected to be. Whether or not that’s a good thing is a topic for a separate post. For the second straight season, the Lady Dogs will need to win the tournament to continue their season. If that doesn’t happen, it will be the first time in program history that Georgia has missed consecutive NCAA tournaments. Georgia has been capable of high-level wins in games at Arkansas and LSU, but home losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt, along with unremarkable nonconference results, all but ended Georgia’s hopes of an at-large bid.

Joni Taylor’s team is led by its large junior class. A lone senior, Stephanie Paul, contributes but is limited by chronic knee pain. A top 15 freshman class hasn’t really developed as hoped. The team usually needs a good night from three of its juniors to have a shot. Gabby Connally has been the team’s leading scorer, but she’s had to play out of position all season at point guard. All-SEC defender Que Morrison was lost for the season in late February. The story of the season has been the February emergence of center Jenna Stati. The Maryland transfer is scoring 11.5 PPG, but she’s averaged over 20 PPG in the last seven games and scored at least 15 points in 8 of the last 9 games. Her contribution has led the Lady Dogs to a 4-2 record to end the season even with Morrison sidelined.

There are some wildcards who could carry Georgia into the quarterfinals. Shaniya Jones is a streaky shooter who could put up double figures in a matter of minutes. Wing Maya Caldwell often has the opportunity for open jumpers. The team has been playing well enough to cool off a hot Alabama team and will almost always play with great effort defensively, but Georgia must do the little things to advance: hit layups, manage their foul load, and value possession without turnovers. Those haven’t been sure things this season, and that’s why the Lady Dogs are in the position of having to win the tournament.

10) Florida (15-14, 6-10) (LY-13th, PS-14th): Florida made measured progress this year and escaped the bottom four. Wins over Arkansas and Kentucky (minus Rhyne Howard) helped the team surpass meager preseason expectations and avoid a game on Wednesday. Much of the team’s progress has to do with the emergence of freshman wing Lavender Briggs. Briggs leads the team in scoring with nearly 15 PPG and is second on the team in rebounding. Fellow freshman Nina Rickards gives Florida another perimeter weapon. Forward Zada Williams is capable of a big game, but Florida has several quick players with good size who can cause matchup problems. Their issue this year has been putting the ball in the basket as they lag in shooting, free throw, and 3pt percentage. The Gators were 4-4 in February and could present a challenge to a reeling LSU team on Thursday.

11) Missouri (8-21, 5-11) (LY-5th, PS-9th): The Tigers lost a strong senior class that featured Sophie Cunningham and Cierra Porter, and their rebuilding year has been much tougher than expected. A win over LSU in January was the bright spot of the season, and they looked to be turning a corner in early February with a close loss against Arkansas and a win over Georgia. Losses in four of their last six leave them among the four teams playing on Wednesday. They should be able to get past Ole Miss, a team they swept during the regular season, but their season will likely end against Tennessee. Amber Smith was poised to take over as team leader following Cunningham and Porter, and she has had a solid season. But it’s been a pair of freshmen, Aijha Blackwell and Hayley Frank, who lead the team in scoring. That bodes well for the future, but it also helps to explain the slide this year.

12) Vanderbilt (14-15, 4-12) (LY-14th, PS-12th): This is progress, right? Vanderbilt doubled both their conference and overall win totals from a year ago. That still leaves them near the bottom of the standings, but they’re out of last place and will be wearing their home whites in an SEC tournament game. The Commodores raised a few eyebrows with a 10-3 nonconference mark that included a win over Washington and respectable losses to Rutgers and UConn. They started 2-1 in the SEC with convincing wins over Auburn and Georgia, and Stephanie White’s fourth season began to look much different from her first three. Reality set in over the rest of the conference slate: Ole Miss was their only other win for almost two months. Vandy has been playing better of late though. They had close single-digit losses at both Tennessee and LSU, and a fourth quarter outbust powered them to an upset of Kentucky on the final day of the season. Freshman forward Koi Love has been a great find and forms a productive frontcourt with Mariella Fasoula, but the team has struggled outside the arc. Jordyn Cambridge leads the conference in steals.

13) Auburn (10-17, 4-12) (LY-6th, PS-8th): It’s been a disappointing season for Auburn after a trip to the NCAA tournament a year ago. Junior Unique Thompson is a first team All-SEC selection and averages a double-double, but the Tigers have struggled to find her much help. Thompson and lone senior Daisa Alexander are the only upperclassmen on a team with 11 freshmen and sophomores, and Terri Williams-Flournoy’s squad took it on the chin during this rebuilding year. There are signs of improvement: in February the Tigers took Mississippi State to overtime, beat LSU, and lost to Tennessee by a point in the season finale. They won’t be afraid of a quarterfinal game against Arkansas if they can get past Vanderbilt, a team with which they split the season series.

14) Ole Miss (7-22, 0-16) (LY-12th, PS-13th): Coach Yo struggled to find a breakthrough win this season, and it’s unfortunate that the team’s most newsworthy moment came from scoring two points in the first half against South Carolina. To their credit, the team has continued to fight and has come close to several wins. They’ve lost to Georgia by seven, Florida by two, and Alabama by just one point. Ole Miss will welcome a solid recruiting class to Oxford next season and should soon be a much more competitive team.

I’ve been waiting for a piece like this for a while. The one-time transfer exception seemed like a good idea a year ago when everyone was up in arms about the transfer portal. Since most sports operate that way already, I thought it was reasonable to ask how they managed.

It would be interesting to see coaches interviewed from other sports who have had to deal with unrestricted transfers for years…These coaches live in this world already and could provide some good insight on how to manage a program.

Nicole Auerbach did just that. It’s at The Athletic and behind the paywall, but what she finds shouldn’t surprise anyone. Recommended reading.

The key takeaway is that these coaches have adapted to their transfer process, and there are just as many ways to stretch a different set of rules. Coaches don’t explicitly recruit players who haven’t announced an intent to transfer. Instead the backchannel work is done with a club coach or other third party, and the player magically has a destination not long after they announce their intent to transfer. The transfer market will have to be considered as another source for improving the roster even more than it is today. Coaches will have to balance a full recruiting class with the flexibility of keeping a few scholarships in reserve for transfers. Yes, adjustments will be required, but “none of these coaches are turning over huge portions of their roster each year.”

One scenario I hadn’t considered was suggested by a soccer coach. He “can absolutely envision a world where high-major or elite Power 5 football coaches tell a recruit that he’s not quite good enough to play at School X right now, but he could be after a good season at School Y. Those coaches could maintain the relationship with the recruit and circle back a year later, eventually adding him as an up-transfer.”

Is that not the next evolution of blue/grayshirting?

By now we’ve become accustomed to most of the recruiting drama occurring around the early signing period in December. February is now for tying up loose ends and revisiting what happened in December. Even so, the late signing period offered some twists and turns in recent years. In 2018 Tyson Campbell committed and signed in February. Quay Walker had his infamous Tennessee hat-tossing signing ceremony. Otis Reese flipped from Michigan – a big deal at the time, but alas…

Of course the signing of George Pickens (and the flip from Auburn) dominated the February news in 2019.

The late signing day in 2020 was a little different. It featured some uncertainty but not much drama.

The day’s biggest question was whether Georgia would hold on to two long-time offensive line commitments. Sedrick Van Pran and Broderick Jones didn’t sign in December, and that caused a bit of consternation given the new position coach and the need to rebuild the line quickly after several early departures. Neither decommitted, but not signing opened the door for rivals to attempt to flip these highly-regarded prospects. Van Pran more or less shut things down well before signing day. Jones went so far as to hold an announcement on signing day, but his cancellation of a scheduled visit to Auburn in early February was a big sign that Georgia had convinced the five-star tackle to remain in the fold. There was uncertainty, and there always is until the ink is dry, but there was no shocking or unexpected news around Georgia’s signing class.

The Dawgs did add a couple of pieces at the offensive skill positions. 4* tailback Daijun Edwards was the first signee of the morning. Edwards committed to Georgia in late January, and he will join Kendall Milton to replace D’Andre Swift and Brian Herrien in the Georgia backfield. Ladd McConkey was a late addition to a stellar group of freshman wide receivers.

Georgia also was able to flip three-star defensive back Daran Branch, landed three-star defensive lineman Cameron Kinnie and added walk-on quarterback Jackson Muschamp, the son of South Carolina coach Will Muschamp, to add to its already outstanding class.

Now that everyone has signed, the most impressive story over the past two months is how quickly and definitively Kirby Smart changed the narrative around Georgia football. Think about the state of the program around mid-December. We just saw an ugly loss to LSU in the SEC Championship that exposed just how far Georgia had to go to become a true national contender. Sam Pittman, one of the most popular members of the staff, left to helm the Arkansas program, and an important class of offensive line commitments was up in the air. We learned that around 20 players would miss the Sugar Bowl for a variety of reasons. Four of five offensive line starters left the program, and by the end of it all only two starters would return on offense for 2020. Georgia still had a bowl game to play, but no one really seemed to care. Fans grumbled about the state of the offense as they had since mid-October, and the memory of last season’s half-hearted performance against Texas meant that there would be plenty of seats available in New Orleans.

The response started before the bowl game. Matt Luke was brought on to replace Pittman, and the former Ole Miss head coach jumped right into the job of salvaging recruiting and preparing the team for the bowl. Luke cobbled together a serviceable group of five linemen for the bowl game, including one first-time starter, and they performed well against a top-ten opponent. Georgia’s December signing class received high marks, and there was only a single decommitment. The remnants of the 2019 team regrouped for the bowl game and handled a decent Baylor team to end the year on a high note. The new year started strong with significant signings from top tight end and defensive back prospects. Jake Fromm’s decision to leave was a temporary shock to the system, but the Dawgs soon added the top available graduate transfer quarterback. Todd Monken arrived in mid-January to lend immediate credibility to Smart’s imperative to transform the offense.

The dust has settled, and Georgia has finished with one of, if not the, top classes in the nation. They are well-positioned at the quarterback position despite the unexpected departure of Fromm. They’ve addressed the shortcomings on offense with a respectable new coordinator whose experience aligns with the vision of a more open, modern offense. Time will tell of course, but events since December have served to create a much more positive outlook heading into the 2020 season than we faced two months ago.

Major news today as Georgia announced the addition of Todd Monken to the coaching staff. Monken was named offensive coordinator which means that James Coley is no longer calling plays. Coley has the opportunity to remain on staff though as assistant head coach, and I’m glad to see that. Coley contributed to Georgia’s success over the past couple of seasons and was responsible for recruiting several high-profile members of Georgia’s team, and I think he can continue to have a positive impact in a modified role.(*) Know this – Kirby Smart wants Coley to remain with the program.

Coley’s reassignment does remind us that the staff dynamic is something worth watching in the year(s) ahead. The LSU experiment only worked because Brady and Ensminger meshed and complemented each other well. Georgia’s bringing in two coaches for 2020 with college head coaching experience, and they’re being added to a staff with a reassigned offensive coordinator. That’s a lot of experience and perspective to offer the program, but it’s also an opportunity for pride and egos to clash when several guys are used to calling the shots. You want coaches to challenge and question each other, and passive get-along types usually don’t last long in the pressure cooker environment. It’s easy though for things to get out of hand and factions to form that undermine other assistants or even the head coach.

Kirby Smart has taken on the challenge of managing those personalities because the payoff can be immense. I wrote before the season about Smart growing into the head coaching role – there are still only four SEC coaches who have been at their programs longer. Dealing with staff turnover is part of any head coach’s job, and he’s had to replace several coaches and both coordinators. Some decisions were home runs: Dan Lanning replaced Mel Tucker and produced the #1-rated defense in SP+. Coley’s experience didn’t go as well, but he wasn’t a failure. The Dawgs finished slightly better in 2019 than in 2018, but that’s only part of the story.

The bigger point was this: “if our faith in the new coordinators lies largely in the belief that they’re instruments of Kirby Smart’s preferences, Smart’s own role in decisions deserves greater scrutiny.” That’s been the question ever since it became clear that things weren’t quite right with the offense in 2019. What does Kirby Smart want from an offense? We’ve seen the “manball” perjorative used – not unfairly – but that can’t be all of it. Georgia had explosive and productive offenses with a similar approach in 2017 and 2018. After three years of teams that were great-but-not-great-enough, it was again time to ask what was holding Georgia back. It’s not facilities. It’s no longer recruiting. It’s fair to ask whether the coaching was at the level of players they did so well to bring in. The departure of Scott Fountain gave Smart the opening to evaluate in which areas Georgia came up short. The explosive plays that defined the 2017 and 2018 offenses dwindled in 2019, and one of the most efficient passers to play at Georgia could barely complete 50% of his attempts by the end. Smart recognized the need for change, and Monken definitely represents a different direction.

Todd Monken is a familiar name to longtime college football fans. He grew the Oklahoma State program with Les Miles and made the jump to LSU when Miles did. In a second stint at Oklahoma State, he orchestrated a productive offense with Mike Gundy that went 12-1 in 2011. That offense was #1 in S&P+ in 2011 and #7 in 2012 despite injuries to the top two quarterbacks. That success earned him the head coaching job at Southern Miss where he had to rebuild a shambles of a program. Southern Miss improved from 0-11 in 2012 to 9–5 in 2015 while the offense improved from #117 in S&P+ to #53. He made the jump to the NFL in 2016 and has worked with both Tampa Bay and Cleveland.

Yes, bringing in someone fresh off an unsuccessful NFL job might initially give off “2015 Part II: The Schottening” vibes. Monken isn’t Schottenheimer. He has far more experience in the college game with previous gigs as a college offensive coordinator and head coach and did very well in them. We try to be optimistic about any change, but Schottenheimer took a lot more convincing. Maybe that had to do with the circumstances of the change (Bobo leaving versus Coley being reassigned.) I wrote at the time that “there seems to be a lot more wait-and-see” with Schottenheimer relative to the addition of Jeremy Pruitt as defensive coordinator a year earlier. There doesn’t seem to be nearly as much of that this time, especially among people who have followed the college game closely enough to be familiar with Monken’s work at earlier stops.

Bill Connelly’s 2012 Oklahoma State preview illustrates how Monken attacked defenses with his top-rated 2011 offense:

Monken’s 2011 play-calling was a picture-perfect case study in taking what the defense gives you. Opponents are forming a cloud around Justin Blackmon? That’s fine; we’ll throw to Josh Cooper 15 times. Opponents are selling out to prevent the deep ball? Okay, then we’ll fire quick slants to Blackmon, or we’ll swing the ball from sideline to sideline until they change their tactics. (This was the entire comeback strategy against Texas A&M. Hubert Anyiam, the No. 3 receiver in 2011 until he got hurt, caught 10 of 13 passes for 92 yards versus A&M, and most of that came from snap-and-throw passes to him on the line of scrimmage.) Ignoring the line of scrimmage a bit too much? Then we’ll run, and run, and run, and run.

Not a bad way to run a railroad. Monken will have a similar buffet of options with his Georgia offense beginning with Jamie Newman at quarterback. He’ll have more talent at tailback than he’s used to having on any of his college teams. He’ll be asked to bring along what might be the nation’s best incoming receiver class while getting the most out of George Pickens and the returning group of receivers. Those are a lot of moving parts to get on the same page in a short amount of time, especially with a trip to Tuscaloosa looming in September. Of course it will all ultimately serve Kirby Smart’s preferences, so Georgia won’t be going full Air Raid. Monken won’t be constrained though by the head man in playcalling as he was in Cleveland and even Tampa.

We’re excited that Smart made a change, but that in itself is no guarantee that it will work. Comparisons with LSU’s overhaul will be inevitable, and neither Smart or Monken can let that drive their approach in 2020. Monken was part of a successful OC/HC team with Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, but he reportedly clashed with Freddie Kitchens in Cleveland. There’s always a risk things could blow up with such sweeping changes to both the roster and offensive coaching staff. We don’t know how well Monken can recruit his side of the ball and how much Georgia will continue to rely on Coley to bring in elite talent. All that said, Monken isn’t a reach. He’s proven at this level and one of the first names you’d consider to help an offense evolve. It will be extremely impressive if he can put all of these new pieces together and show immediate results in 2020.

* – There’s no point in re-litigating Coley’s performance as coordinator in 2019. He’s taking the fall here, but many of us still don’t appreciate the drain of talent at receiver and tight end. Georgia became almost completely reliant on a graduate transfer receiver from Miami (and thank goodness for Lawrence Cager), but this would have been a completely different offense regardless of coordinator with Ridley, Hardman, Nauta, and Ford.

While Burrow, Brady, and the offense deserve the spotlight, LSU became a scary machine when the defense rounded into form late in the season. The book on LSU had been “great offense, but there are points to be had against them.” They survived a shootout with Texas, got lit up by an Alabama team with a hobbled quarterback, and how many Georgia fans hung their hopes on the 38 points scored by Vanderbilt or the rushing yardage LSU surrendered to Ole Miss?

The 2018 LSU defense was a juggernaut that finished ranked 5th by SP+. Devin White and Greedy Williams left for the NFL. Some important pieces returned, especially Chaisson and Delpit, but the Tigers would be counting on several inexperienced newcomers to fill in the gaps and come along quickly. LSU’s defense was ranked 37th by SP+ after week 7, and the inexperience was compounded by some early injuries. Injured players began to return to the team, and young players like Derek Stingley Jr. began to emerge. There wasn’t a sudden turnaround, but the defensive SP+ rating improved into the 20s and cracked the top 20 by the beginning of the postseason.

The Tigers held Texas A&M, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson to 7, 10, 28, and 25 points to close out the season. That list includes three of the top five teams in the final playoff rankings. The LSU offense went supernova, and they were aided by an improved defense that began to keep the offense well-supplied with possessions, turnovers, and field position. You can even credit the offense with providing the defense plenty of cover to improve. Keeping up with LSU’s output put tremendous pressure on opponents, and the best-laid plans to control the ball and keep Burrow on the sideline went out the window as the Tiger offense went scorched-earth. Opponents were jarred out of their comfort zones, and gameplans went out the window. The LSU defense could key on pass plays, and an inexperienced and banged-up unit still finished second in the SEC in sacks and first in interceptions.

I’m happy for LSU – to an extent. They were a fun team to watch with exceptional players, and there’s no denying the greatness of this year’s team. In Georgia terms, this was their 2017 – except that they finished. They’re still the competition, especially on the recruiting trail. Will Georgia now be chasing two teams in the SEC instead of just Alabama? Has LSU supplanted Alabama? Alabama and Clemson were able to survive wholesale turnovers of talent and win multiple national titles within a couple of years of each other. LSU will also face a big drain of talent from its roster and perhaps also its coaching staff. They’re not going to disappear from relevance like Washington or FSU. But will they be able to remain part of the title discussion like Clemson or Alabama, or will they take a step back to the next tier of teams?

Georgia fans know all about that next tier. We’ve taken up residence there for two seasons now. As much as we might have enjoyed LSU’s win as SEC sympaticos with their likeable cast of characters, it was a little bittersweet. Georgia was supposed to be next. 2019 was set up as a test of whether Georgia could finally get over the Alabama hump an on to bigger things. Instead it was LSU that blew past the rest of the SEC, Georgia included, en route to a national title. LSU proved that our vision for Georgia was possible; it was just put into practice somewhere else.

It’s still not too late for Georgia. The Bulldog program isn’t fading away, and top-rated talent continues to arrive. We’ll see whether LSU’s success is enough of a shock to the system to force Kirby Smart to reconsider the offense he chooses to pair with his top-rated defense. The approach so far was good enough to beat just about any team on a typical regular season schedule, but the Georgia program is in a position now where it is judged against a higher class of competition.

(obligatory headline)

Georgia has added Wake Forest graduate transfer quarterback Jamie Newman to the program. He enrolled at UGA last week and will be available for spring practice as the Dawgs begin the process of finding Jake Fromm’s successor. Oregon was considered to be Georgia’s top competition, but Newman drew interest from several major P5 programs who were losing their starting quarterback.

With Newman at the helm Wake Forest rose as high as #19 in the 2019 AP poll before the bottom fell out at the end of the season. He finished 2019 with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Like most of us trying to get an idea of what Newman brings to the team, I’ve watched more Wake Forest football in the past few days than I did during all of the 2010s. I have very little idea what to expect. Wake’s coach is Dave Clawson, so Newman ran an offense with a heavy dose of RPOs. The stats tell us a couple of things:

• His stature (6’4″, 230 lbs) is roughly comparable to Justin Fields (6’3″, 223 lbs).
• Newman’s 574 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs in 2019 would have rated second on Georgia’s team behind only D’Andre Swift. His 3.19 yards per carry on the other hand wouldn’t have cracked the top 10 among Georgia ballcarriers.
• He was a high-volume ballcarrier with at least 10 rushing attempts in all but three games, but there were few explosive runs: Newman had only three games with a run longer than 10 yards.
• Newman threw an interception in all but four games. Better decision-making is surely going to be an area of early emphasis by his coaches.
• Newman’s 2019 completion percentage followed a very Fromm-like trajectory: the year started strong, but he was over 50% in just one of Wake’s last five games. The Deacons had some key injuries at receiver during the year at the same time that they faced a couple of the ACC’s tougher defenses.

I doubt Newman would have transferred in without an expectation to start, but it’s not a done deal yet. He’ll compete for the job with the three scholarship quarterbacks already on the roster: Carson Beck, D’Wan Mathis, and Stetson Bennett. Newman’s odds to start seem good – Mathis still hasn’t been cleared for full contact, and Beck will be a true freshman. A lot could happen before August, and there’s no need for Kirby Smart to name a starter. (In fact, it would be completely on-brand for Kirby Smart to put off naming a starter well into preseason leading to dozens of repetitive dead-end questions and speculative articles. Isn’t that what the offseason is for?)

Does Newman’s arrival hint at a change in Georgia’s approach on offense? Not necessarily. His rushing stats draw your eye, but he’s a passer first and will look to develop his throwing in a pro-style offense ahead of entering the 2021 draft. In fact, he might be the best downfield passer Georgia has had in a while. His running ability helps in three ways. First, he’ll have the freedom to salvage busted passing plays just as any quarterback, including Fromm, can. Newman might be able to get a few more yards out of those scrambles and help Georgia sustain more drives. Second is as a credible threat to keep the ball on read option plays. Georgia’s inside and outside zone reads were more or less single-option running plays, and opposing defensive fronts could key on the tailback. Fromm wasn’t going to run the ball himself, and Georgia used play-action less in 2019, so odds were that the tailback was getting the ball. Newman has experience running read option plays, and the threat of him keeping the ball could open things up for Georgia’s fleet of tailbacks. Along those lines, Newman’s experience running an RPO-based offense could help with what Georgia is trying to do with its own RPOs. A running threat at quarterback turns any RPO into a triple option: hand off, pass, or keep. Georgia will have better weapons at the skill positions than Newman had at Wake Forest, and explosive threats at receiver and tailback could present headaches if the quarterback also has to be accounted for.

Again, what we know of Newman is the sum of the highlights we’ve hastily queued up since his name appeared on Georgia’s radar. National pundits (even Mark Richt!) seem to like the move. There seems to be univeral acclaim that Newman was the best prospect available from the pool of graduate transfers or unsigned true freshmen. Most illuminating might be this piece from Pro Football Focus that named Newman the third best returning quarterback in college football behind only Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. The money line: “Joe Burrow is far and away the highest-graded quarterback throwing to a tight window, but Newman is second — and third isn’t anywhere near him. He also limited his uncatchable pass rate to the fourth lowest.” Those attributes will be important in bringing along a talented but inexperienced group of receivers.

That’s fairly high praise – the PFF list didn’t include any returning SEC quarterbacks (including Trask, Nix, or Hilinski, and Mac Jones looked more than capable when pressed into service at Alabama). Georgia fans might be wary that a transfer from Wake Forest could become one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks in short order even if someone like Kyle Trask isn’t Joe Burrow. It’s especially tough to project Newman’s prospects at Georgia when the 2019 season ended with such dysfunction in the passing game. Mobile quarterback or not, a vacancy on the staff leaves unanswered questions about the direction of Georgia’s offense in 2020. Those questions weren’t enough to keep Newman from identifying Georgia as the best destination for his senior season, but who designs the offense will be something Georgia fans watch during the offseason as much as who ends up executing the offense. For now Kirby Smart did what he had to do and landed the best available solution to replenish his quarterback depth chart for another season.

Jake Fromm has decided to turn pro – the first Georgia quarterback to forego his senior season since Matthew Stafford in 2009. Fromm’s accomplishments at Georgia began in his very first game when he led Georgia to its first win by more than 14 points in almost two years. His freshman season was out of a storybook: he stepped in for an injured Jacob Eason, led a dramatic comeback win at Notre Dame, held on to the starting job, won the SEC championship and Rose Bowl, and played for the national title. He leaves with three SEC East titles and a near-spotless record against Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia Tech. He was a winner, a leader, and will be extremely difficult to replace.

After dealing with the initial shock though, Georgia only finds itself in the same position as LSU and Alabama: having to replace a special multi-year starting quarterback. As Jeff Schultz concludes, if those programs are better positioned to survive the transition and Georgia takes a big step back as a result of losing Fromm then “(Kirby) Smart hasn’t built nearly the program many thought he had.” Life, and Georgia football, moves on.

I don’t think things are that dire even if Georgia’s total losses on offense might be more comprehensive than at other top programs. Georgia has recruited at an elite level going on three or four seasons, and there are plausible, if not proven, answers at most every position. Lack of experience is a concern, but these days all teams are young teams. Smart gets to do now what he’s done several times in his four seasons as head coach: find creative and effective solutions to fill out his roster.

You’ll see dozens of pieces this week about the names Georgia might consider now at quarterback. The names will generally reduce down to one of these three groups:

The current roster: The guys already in the program will get the first look, and there’s talent there that was wanted by Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida. Stetson Bennett has been biding his time as Fromm’s backup. D’Wan Mathis hasn’t been fully cleared after brain surgery last summer, but he was able to do some scout team work towards the end of the season and continues to progress. Carson Beck has joined the program as a true freshman and early enrollee and will go through spring practice. Beck is kind of a forgotten man in the current signing class since he committed in early 2019, but he was a former Alabama commitment whom Florida hoped to land. It’s tough and rare for a true freshman to have Fromm’s level of success, but Beck is cut from similar cloth and might be the favorite to win the job from among those on the roster.

A graduate transfer: Several P5 quarterbacks have entered the transfer portal as graduates, and the Dawgs have had an impact graduate transfer at varying positions in just about every season since 2015 – yes, even Grayson Lambert counts. Georgia lacks a returning starting quarterback, and the top competition is arguably an incoming freshman. Georgia will be replacing many of its offensive skill players, but the Dawgs have top prospects in place or incoming at TE, WR, and RB. Georgia would seem like a good landing spot for a talented and experienced quarterback looking to go out with some hardware. Finding the right match will depend on the direction in which Kirby Smart wants to take the offense.

An underclassman transfer: Really any college quarterback short of Trevor Lawrence falls into this category. Justin Fields wasn’t on the Ohio State roster after the 2018 season, he certainly wasn’t a grad transfer, but he was able to find an opportunity that fit him and transfer in immediately. Georgia has been on the departure end of some high-profile quarterback transfers recently, and it could just as easily be a destination. The NCAA is unpredictable with its transfer waiver criteria and adjusted its waiver criteria last summer after the transfer frenzy in early 2019 that included Fields. Still, Smart never stops looking for ways to improve the roster, and he wouldn’t hesitate to bring in a transfer that could help right away. Though this is the least likely scenario we’d be wrong to completely dismiss it given the modern college football landscape and Smart’s track record of surprising us with some of his roster moves.

One other thing: The aftermath of Fromm’s decision could cast a longer shadow. Georgia is currently after some of the top QB prospects in the 2021 class. What will the depth chart look like entering that season? If Georgia does go the graduate transfer route in 2020, there would be an open competition in 2021 just as there would be had Fromm stayed. But if Beck, Mathis, or Bennett earn the job in 2020, there will be a returning starter in place heading into 2021. It’s the same story if Georgia is able to find an underclassman transfer to play in 2020. While it’s possible for a successful starter to give way (see Clemson and even Alabama), a smoother transition from a one-year starter would seem more attractive to a prospective QB than the challenge of having to unseat an established starter. That’s a situation that Kirby Smart can’t afford to consider right now; he has to find the best starter for 2020. It will be interesting to watch the recruitment of Brock Vandagriff and Caleb Williams over the next few months to see how they respond to Georgia’s evolving quarterback situation.