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Post About that weak schedule…

Wednesday January 16, 2013

Before we put one of our favorite preseason topics in cold storage, let’s take one more look back at Georgia’s 2012 schedule. Sagarin’s final ratings are out, and they include strength of schedule for all FBS and FCS teams. (h/t to @OtterDTX for finding the link.) I know there are disagreements with Sagarin’s methods and results, but we’ll stick with them for this post.

Georgia had Sagarin’s 27th-toughest schedule. Among Sagarin’s top 10 teams, every other team but Oregon had a tougher schedule. The separation isn’t that great though. Only five of the top 10 teams had a top 20 schedule, and three others were there in the 20s with the Dawgs. Here are some teams of note:

  • Alabama: #1 rating, #19 schedule
  • Texas A&M: #3 rating, #6 schedule
  • Georgia: #4 rating, #27 schedule
  • South Carolina: #6 rating, #23 schedule
  • FSU: #11 rating, #66 schedule
  • Ohio State: #13 rating, #60 schedule
  • Nebraska: #22 rating, #20 schedule
  • Ole Miss: #24 rating, #8 schedule
  • Vanderbilt: #25 rating, #42 schedule

For what it’s worth, Georgia Southern wasn’t the lowest-rated team on Georgia’s schedule. It wasn’t even in the bottom third of opponents. Sagarin has Georgia Southern rated at #72. Far below them lie Auburn (#81), Kentucky (#93), Buffalo (#131), and Florida Atlantic (#137).

Some other observations:

  • The Dawgs ended up playing three other top 10 teams (and went 1-2). No top 10 team played more than four other top 10 opponents, and Kansas State didn’t face a (final) top 10 team until their bowl.
  • Georgia faced six top 30 teams, and they had a 4-2 record in those games. Those lopsided Ole Miss and Vandy wins look a lot more impressive in hindsight.
  • What does having the nation’s toughest schedule get you? Say hello to Missouri, whose move to the SEC meant that they were the only team in the nation to face five eventual top 10 teams. The #2 schedule? Auburn’s next coach will hope for a little easier slate.
  • If you wonder why SEC teams schedule as they do, the conference ended up with 12 of the nation’s 30 toughest schedules. Only Vanderbilt and Mississippi State didn’t have a top 30 schedule.
  • Taking that last point further, the SEC had six of the nation’s top 10 schedules and three of the top 5.
  • It’s worth noting that only two of those six SEC teams with top 10 schedules qualified for a bowl.
  • The average BCS team had a strength of schedule rating just over 40. Even when you exclude Northern Illinois’ abysmal #121 schedule, the average BCS team’s strength of schedule was #31.

Post Lady Dogs rediscover the paint in a successful week

Monday January 14, 2013

The Lady Dogs’ first two road trips after the Christmas break didn’t go well. They lost their first game of the year in a sluggish effort at Illinois, and then they saw a close game deteriorate in the second half at Tennessee. After starting 12-0, the team had lost two of three games.

The team had some opportunities to recover over the past week, and they cashed in with a pair of wins in games that featured very different styles. Thursday’s game at Alabama, an 95-83 win, was a shootout. About the only way either team could stop the other was by stealing the ball; the teams combined for 19 steals. But Georgia shot 56%, Alabama shot 64% from outside, and both teams put up some of their highest point totals of the season. It was close at halftime, but Georgia pulled away to lead by as many as 19. Five Georgia players scored in double-figures.

Sunday’s home game against South Carolina was the complete opposite. The Lady Dogs won a 42-40 grinder against South Carolina, one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The South Carolina defense and its on-ball pressure was an especially strong test for Georgia’s guards, and the visitors came away with 13 steals. But it also meant a stiff test for Georgia’s own defense. With things going slowly on offense, a Georgia defense that gave up 83 points to Alabama couldn’t afford another high number.

South Carolina did a few things to help Georgia out. The Gamecocks were a woeful 0-for-11 from outside and only shot 8-for-16 from the foul line. Free throws aside, South Carolina’s open looks from outside were the byproduct of an effective Georgia zone defense. South Carolina’s strength is in driving to the basket. Georgia’s zone helped to limit this penetration, and the visitors shot only 34%. South Carolina did have one advantage, and that was toughness inside. The Gamecocks pulled down 12 offensive boards and out-rebounded Georgia 37-28. This rebounding edge helped South Carolina overcome their poor shooting: 10 of South Carolina’s 40 points were second-chance baskets.

This was a close defensive battle typical of what we’ve come to expect against Dawn Staley’s South Carolina teams. Neither team led by more than 6, and both teams made key plays on both ends of the court when it seemed that one side might look to make a run. Georgia’s guards usually aren’t shy about shooting, but the South Carolina defense kept the Georgia backcourt to no more than 8 attempts from any one player. The Lady Dogs did get some good looks, but they too struggled from outside, hitting only one of nine attempts from behind the arc.

Two players accounted for nearly half the points in the game. South Carolina forward Aleighsa Welch was tough to stop with 19 points on efficient 8-for-10 shooting. Georgia had an answer on their frontcourt. Jasmine Hassell also poured in 19 points, and she scored Georgia’s final three points to help seal the win. Hassell’s solid game came on the heels of a 21 point, 7 rebound effort at Alabama. Those two game earned her SEC Player of the Week honors, and she did it all with a broken nose suffered during the Alabama game.

Hassell’s importance to the team has been clear over the past month. She was key in the Alabama and South Carolina games, but there have been times when that production hasn’t been there – or when teammates have struggled to get the ball inside. In the loss at Tennessee, Hassell only scored 4 points, but she only attempted 4 shots. Even in a solid win over Missouri to open SEC play, Hassell got 3 points on 4 attempts. I understand that sometimes defenses make it a point to keep the ball from Georgia’s only true post player, but more consistent output from that spot has to be a key for the team going forward. Good things happen when she gets the ball inside.

Now the focus turns to Anne Marie Armstrong. Georgia’s other senior forward has been recovering from a foot injury since before the season. The injury has had a glaring impact on Armstrong’s scoring. She was held out of the Alabama game to help her recovery, but her four games since Christmas haven’t been successful. She’s shooting just 3-for-28 during that stretch, and there were three games in which she didn’t make a shot. You need her in the game because as an intelligent and experienced senior, she finds other ways to contribute. Her defense is solid, she contributed two steals against South Carolina, and she led the team with 4 assists. You just hope that the ankle can come back to a point where Armstrong is again an inside-outside scoring threat.

Georgia has an interesting week coming up with another away/home pair of games. The long-ish trip to Arkansas, especially on a weekday, is never pleasant. It doesn’t help that Arkansas is a decent team this year. Georgia returns home on Sunday to welcome Texas A&M to the SEC. While most of the state will be glued to the Falcons, this will be the second straight Sunday Top 20 game at Stegeman Coliseum. A&M’s football program is the toast of College Station now, but this basketball team has been one of the strongest Aggie programs over the past couple of years. They reached the national title game two years ago and returned to the Sweet 16 a year ago. They’re back in the top 20 this year. Though they’ve lost five games, all five losses have been to top 10 teams, and only the loss to UConn wasn’t close. A&M coach Gary Blair, through his former position at Arkansas, is no stranger to Athens. Georgia’s upperclassmen were there for a humiliating loss when these teams last met in the 2011 Sweet 16, and hopefully that bitter taste will be on their minds.


Post Hoops update: if it were an NFL team, it would be time to play for the #1 pick

Monday January 14, 2013

Back when sports blogging awards were a thing, there was one called the “Job Award.” It went to the poor soul who kept plugging through his or her team’s awful season. It’s easy and fun to write about a winning season like the one we just enjoyed with Georgia football. Things were less fun in 2010, but, still – we’re not talking about a 2012 Auburn season. You have to salute (pity? wonder about?) those fans who not only show up for and watch every game but also try to make sense of it all for the rest of us.

That all applies to anyone writing about Georgia basketball these days. It’s just not enjoyable. And as bad as it is to watch and then revisit, it’s that much worse to play and coach through. It’s tough on a team that’s not all that good to come to practice and prepare for the next game with the right outlook and attention to detail that will create the foundation on which a poor team will become a better team.

Georgia’s loss at Florida in the SEC opener wasn’t unexepected, but the hosts weren’t even challenged. Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State was a missed opportunity to defend the home court against one of the league’s poorest teams. It was a measuring stick against a conference peer, and the Dawgs came up short. The offense that had a fairly productive first half by Georgia standards fell apart once Caldwell-Pope went quiet after a defensive adjustment. Georgia had some chances midway through the second half to take control of the game, but they couldn’t separate. MSU, and Jalen Steele in particular, made the Dawgs pay with their own run in the final minutes to open up the game, and Georgia wasn’t able to recover.

At 0-2 in the league, Georgia faces a tough four-game stretch where a home game against a decent LSU team might be Georgia’s best (only?) shot for their first conference win over those four games. We know by now that this team is just going to struggle to put points on the board, and so they’ll struggle to win when they can’t bring the kind of defense it takes to hold games under 60 points. With the direction of the season fairly evident now, we’ll look to the development of some promising freshmen and see if they can offer fans hope for a better future.


Post Dynasty by happenstance

Monday January 14, 2013

Alabama was dominant in the national title game a week ago. Not many around the SEC were surprised. Not only did we know Bama; the SEC has also built its current dynasty through a habit of beating the nation’s #1 team. In five of the seven years during the current streak, the SEC team that ended up winning the national title came into the game as the #2 team. That doesn’t mean all five of those teams were underdogs in the championship game, but in those five seasons the polls and computers agreed that there was a more obvious participant in the title game. In four of the seven seasons, the road to the title for the eventual champion only became clear after some improbable late-season upsets.

  • 2006: Not only did Florida get caught up in Michigan/Ohio State rematch talk, but they also needed a 5-loss UCLA team to upset mighty USC in the final week of the season.
  • 2007: The litany of upsets and poll manipulation that put a two-loss LSU team into the championship could fill its own post, but the Pitt upset of West Virginia is enough to illustrate the kind of year 2007 was.
  • 2011: LSU was going to be in the game regardless, but their opponent didn’t even win their conference. But after Oklahoma State faltered at Ames and Boise State had a placekicking meltdown for the ages, the SEC streak lived on thanks to an unlikely rematch of a game played just two months earlier.
  • 2012: Alabama’s spot for a title defense was all but booked after October, but the loss to A&M opened the door for a slew of other teams. The champs again needed intervention in order to earn the opportunity to repeat. That intervention came on a night where two top-5 title contenders fell within hours. Then Notre Dame controlled the top spot, and the SEC championship became a de facto national semifinal. It was also fortunate that Ohio State was ineligible, or we would have watched two midwestern teams fight over the SEC’s crown

I”m not trying to take anything away from Alabama and their repeat. They’ve been the best team over the body of two seasons. As the SEC has been so dominant in the title game, their spot in the game has been as fragile as an Iowa tailback. Things will change somewhat with the introduction of a playoff, but even then there will be debate. Few teams were better at the end of the season than Texas A&M, but I can’t imagine even an 8-team playoff having room for the Aggies. It’s been a little amusing then to read and listen to all of the analysis over the past week of what it will take to end the SEC’s run. There doesn’t have to be any great power rising up from the west or midwest. All it could take is a double-digit home favorite somewhere taking care of business.


Post Trouble been doggin’ my soul

Monday January 7, 2013

One reason for optimism about the 2013 Georgia offense is that for the first time since 2010, the team looks likely to return its leading rusher. It will be the first time since 2008 and only the second time under Mark Richt that Georgia returns a 1,000-yard rusher.

The relative calm surrounding the running back position is a stark contrast to the saga of Georgia’s leading rusher from 2011. Isaiah Crowell transferred to Alabama State after his dismissal from the Georgia program. Crowell had a fair season with 842 yards and 15 touchdowns, and he was named the SWAC newcomer of the year. But as with Crowell’s 850-yard debut in Athens, his first year at Alabama State can’t avoid drama.

ASU self-reported violations regarding Crowell before the season even started. The violations didn’t affect Crowell’s eligibility, but they ended up as a central issue in the firing of the school’s athletic director.

Former ASU AD Stacy Danley claims, and the school denies, that “(Danley) was pushed out at the school after he insisted that head football coach Reggie Barlow be fired for repeatedly lying” during the Crowell investigation. The whole story is a strange volley of allegations between Danley and the administration involving Danley’s role during Crowell’s reinstatement, a Burger King, the daughter of the school’s executive vice president, and the local Thai place.

Georgia has a lot on its plate between now and the 2013 season, but I’m at least glad that the cloud that seems to follow a running back wearing #1 has moved west. Considering what it seems to have cost ASU to land him, Georgia should consider itself lucky for a certain June traffic stop.


Post Georgia 45 – Nebraska 31: A happy ending

Sunday January 6, 2013

A pair of second-half fumbles became game-turning plays for two SEC schools in their New Year’s Day bowls. One fumble will be shown for years, especially on Draft Day 2014 when the college football world celebrates its freedom from Jadaveon Clowney’s reign of terror. You probably won’t see the other fumble again. There might even be doubt whether it was a fumble as replays proved inconclusive. But Alec Ogletree’s forced fumble and recovery as Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah dove to move the chains on a 3rd-and-1 in a tie game was every bit as significant in that game’s outcome as Clowney’s world-stopping play was in his.

Abdullah’s fumble didn’t lead to an outburst of points for Georgia. The Dawgs went three-and-out after the fumble, and they didn’t score again until the fourth quarter. The impact on the Nebraska offense (and the Georgia defense) though was significant. The Huskers looked unstoppable on their first drive of the second half. They marched for a score in thirteen plays on a run-heavy drive, and Georgia’s defense couldn’t even line up correctly. Their second drive started the same way: they moved the ball 47 yards from their own 14 and faced an easy 3rd-and-1 before Georgia was forced to take their second timeout of the half just to get the right people on the field and ready for the snap. The Dawgs were bewildered, and Todd Grantham’s defense looked as ineffective as it did at South Carolina (or Kentucky, for that matter).

Abdullah managed to convert the first down, but Ogletree popped the ball out as Abdullah lunged forward. Nebraska’s next drive was only their third three-and-out of the game as Christian Robinson managed to contain Taylor Martinez on a third-down scramble. The Dawgs forced another three-and-out on Nebraska’s subsequent possession after Georgia had reclaimed the lead. Suddenly the Georgia offense had a chance to build on their lead, and they capitalized with Chris Conley’s 87-yard untouched catch and sprint. Georgia’s two-score lead and the dwindling clock put increased pressure on Martinez to make plays, and he obliged by heaving a long pass that was intercepted by Damian Swann. The Dawgs didn’t score again, but they ran 4:39 off the clock in ten plays to all but end the game.

Prior to the fumble the Cornhuskers had piled up 123 yards in less than ten minutes of the third quarter. Abdullah fumbled with 5:30 to go in the quarter. Nebraska’s four possessions over the remainder of the game yielded just 59 yards and no points. Martinez was 3-for-8 passing on those drives for 19 yards and 1 INT.

What happened? To begin with, Georgia was more effective limiting the big play. The Huskers had no run longer than 11 yards and completed no pass longer than 8 yards after the fumble. Ogletree and the rest of the interior defense became more active. Penalties also put the Huskers in a hole – their three drives following the fumble each had a false start with a punt or a turnover soon to follow. As many good things as there are to say about the Georgia offense, the transformation of a defense that looked lost and disorganized for much of the game was amazing. The biggest difference in this game and the horrible loss at South Carolina was that the offense was able to keep up until the defense figured it out. Without Aaron Murray shaking off his start and coming through in a big way, we’d be having some very different discussions about the other side of the ball.

  • How clutch was Murray? Though he hovered at or below 50% for much of the game, there was this (courtesy of Bill Connelly): on third downs, Murray was 11-for-14 for 246 yards and two touchdowns.
  • In 2002, Georgia went to Auburn with key receivers Terrence Edwards and Damien Gary out injured. When Malcolm Mitchell was lost to a concussion early in the game, that 2002 Auburn game was about as close as I could come to Georgia’s passing game facing such dire depth conditions in such a big game. Three of Georgia’s top four receivers were out, and Murray still put up prodigious numbers against a good pass defense.
  • Of course in that 2002 game almost all of the load was taken up by one player, Michael Johnson. Murray and Bobo managed to come up with a diverse passing attack using whatever happened to be laying around. Tavarres King, as the lone veteran left standing, certainly did his part to go out on top, and he probably should have even had another score. Then there’s Conley. If you want to see SEC speed, watch his acceleration after the catch. Wooten nearly had a touchdown and made an important block to clear the way for Lynch to score. Scott-Wesley worked through a rough start to come up with big catches. McGowan got open for the two-point conversion.
  • There’s a reason why Georgia was after an impact JUCO receiver like Cordarelle Patterson in last year’s signing class. He’d help any team, but Georgia’s depth at receiver wasn’t seen as a strength – especially with Mitchell claimed by the defense. This group was able to not only survive the loss of two, and eventually three, of its most experienced and talented members. It was able to thrive and become a big part of one of the nation’s top offenses.
  • Georgia’s passing game has been more inclusive since the Florida game, and two of the five passing touchdowns didn’t go to receivers. Lynch has set himself up for a big senior season. Marshall’s improvisation on his touchdown catch was outstanding. His original route was a simple release to the flat. When Murray started to scramble, Marshall was covered by a slower linebacker. Marshall took off to the endzone, and Murray threw his trademark back-shoulder dart which Marshall caught and turned into a score as smoothly as any receiver.
  • Have we become numb to 100-yard performances from a tailback? True, a lot of us expected both Gurley and Marshall to go for about 300 yards each after watching the Big Ten championship. Georgia found it difficult to establish a running game against a defense giving up around 195 yards per game. But as in the SEC Championship, the running game made it impossible to focus on Murray. Georgia’s 162 yards rushing were also a far sight better than the 51 yards gained on the ground in last year’s bowl game.
  • Not exactly a state secret here, but Georgia really likes the underneath route rolling to the right on two-point conversions. Usually it’s a man in motion from the far side that curls underneath, and drifted as Murray rolled out.
  • The role of Geathers stepping in for Jenkins got a lot of attention, but I was also pleased with the performance of the ends. Garrison Smith has developed a good feistiness to go along with his ability, and he’ll be a star next year. Ray Drew has quietly had a very solid finish to the season. I’d like to have seen more of Thornton. He did well while in the game, and I hope that the next defensive line coach trusts his guys enough to rotate them more.
  • You take the personal fouls and the biting on play action because Shawn Williams is still in Taylor Martinez’s head.
  • The losses on defense are severe, but a core of guys like Smith, Drew, Jordan Jenkins, Herrera, and Swann are a great group around which to build. Though depth and immediate contributions from newcomers will be important, I think the biggest key for the 2013 defense will be the ability of young players already in the system like Dawson, Thornton, and Harvey-Clemons to step into regular roles.
  • You have to consider the kicking job up for grabs during the offseason, don’t you?

Post Aaron Murray will return

Sunday January 6, 2013

Georgia’s offense learned that the nation’s second-rated passer will return for his senior season:

With Murray returning, Georgia loses only receivers Tavarres King and Marlon Brown from the nation’s top offense in terms of yards-per-play. King and Brown leave big shoes to fill, but the return of Michael Bennett, the arrival of some key newcomers, and a year of development for everyone else will have expectations sky-high for the Georgia offense as the defense rebuilds.

Defensive tackle Kwame Geathers is the only draft-eligible Bulldog who hasn’t announced his intentions yet.


Post Capital One Bowl: Forget what you know

Monday December 31, 2012

As we sit watching a great Chick-fil-A Bowl, I realize that I haven’t written much anything on our own bowl game. There’s been some great analysis elsewhere, but we know this team so well that the keys become either the obvious (turnovers) or the unpredictable (motivation).

You never know about the motivation thing until they get to hitting. Both teams will say and have said the right things. It is strange, though, how much Georgia’s motivation has been questioned. It’s the age-old question about whether it’s easier to shake off a blowout or a heartbreaking loss, but both teams bring baggage into this game. Georgia of course came up yards short of the national title game, but Nebraska got run over by an underdog they had already beaten with a trip to the Rose Bowl at stake. Their reward is a trip back to the same bowl they got last season – will they be motivated to return?

When we last saw these two teams, Nebraska was getting blown out by a middling Big 10 team, and the Dawgs went toe-to-toe with the defending national champion. That made the Capital One Bowl seem like a mismatch, but it’s a lot more likely that neither team will play as they did in their championship games. Nebraska is much better than their showing in Indianapolis, and Georgia will find it tough to sustain the high level of play with which they finished the season after a month of holidays, family time, and other distractions.

For a Georgia team that was gashed for 350 rushing yards by Alabama, facing the nation’s #8 rushing attack isn’t a comfortable thought. The Huskers have five players with over 300 rushing yards, and all five average at least five yards per carry. Complicating things is quarterback Taylor Martinez, one of the best playmakers in the nation. We know of Georgia’s troubles with dual-threat quarterbacks, and Martinez is a better dual threat than either Franklin at Missouri and Rodgers at Vanderbilt.

Another complication is Georgia’s defensive line. Jenkins is ineligible, and Abry Jones won’t be in top condition if he plays at all. That leaves a fairly thin group including Geathers, Drew, Smith, and Washington with much experience. Mike Thornton is also available, but he’s working back from a leg injury on a cut block by Georgia Tech. If Nebraska can stay on the field and sustain drives, this group could wear down against another good running game. This is another area where Martinez’s abilities come into play. He’ll have his designed runs, but the plays to watch will be the third downs that break down. Can Georgia’s defense contain Martinez and get off the field, or will Nebraska’s quarterback improvise to move the chains?

You don’t like to talk about it, but Georgia’s defense is full of guys who could be expected to have one eye on their draft status. On one hand, that’s a positive – this is another big stage for them, and for the underclassmen it’s the last game they’ll play in before they get poked and prodded by NFL scouts. If they value this opportunity to make a final impression, it could mean good things for the Georgia defense. On the other hand, the proximity to the draft and potentially a lot of money could make some play tentative in order to avoid injury. While this is a big game, it doesn’t have the stakes of a BCS or especially a title game. We should find out very quickly whether Georgia’s defense brings the same intensity with which it finished the season.

With so many variables on defense, I’m looking to the offense for consistency. The offense was fantastic in November, and they played Alabama as well as any team not led by a Heisman winner. Murray is in good form, Gurley has been consistently excellent, and additional weapons (like the tight ends) have emerged. It would take a lot for Georgia to put up 40 points, let alone 60 or 70, but it’s going to take a better effort on offense than Georgia has come up with in the past two bowls.

The less said about the 2010 showing against UCF, the better. But even last year the offense was a weakness. They put up 30 points against Michigan State, but remember how shaky it was. Those points included a long bomb to King and a punt return by Boykin. Georgia had a decent scoring drive in the fourth quarter after falling behind, but that was about all of the sustained offense they could muster. As the game wore on, MSU’s defensive line became more dominant to the point that Georgia all but conceded their inability to run in overtime. The game also featured some crippling turnovers by Murray that let MSU overcome their 16-0 halftime deficit.

With solid performances against Florida and Alabama under their belt, we’re still not far removed from questions about this team’s ability to perform against ranked teams. They’ve since answered those questions, but this is still one of the better teams Georgia has faced all season. It’s their fourth opportunity against a ranked opponent in the 2012 season, and the Dawgs need a win to get to .500 against their ranked foes.

It’s been what seems like an eternity since Georgia’s last bowl win, and there aren’t many key players who were on that 2009 Independence Bowl team. It’s been since 2008 that Georgia has beaten an opponent of this quality in a bowl.


Post Georgia not out of the attrition woods yet

Monday December 31, 2012

Over the weekend Seth Emerson took a look at a big preseason concern: going into the season well under the 85-scholarship limit.  As it turned out, Georgia’s low scholarship total wasn’t a detriment.  Even with fewer than 70 players who signed with the team out of high school, the Dawgs came within yards of a national title shot and still stand a good chance of finishing as a top 5 team. 

Mark Richt reflected:

"We didn’t have a lot of injuries," Richt said. "We did have a couple ACLs, as we know, and Abry (Jones) we lost for a good bit of time. But overall we didn’t have a massive amount of injuries. You don’t play 85 guys in any one season. You might play a core of about 35 guys, 40 guys. So we were blessed to have guys stay healthy and we just played well together."

It’s true that Georgia’s low numbers didn’t torpedo the season.  That’s not to say though that Georgia didn’t feel the effects of attrition.  It showed up most of all along the lines.  The Dawgs were nominally deeper at offensive line than they’ve been in a while, but in practical terms it wasn’t a deep group.  Georgia started a true freshman at right tackle, and there were some very public growing pains for the promising newcomer. Georgia’s left tackle is a converted guard who could move back inside if the 2013 recruiting class pans out.  That’s not to bag on Theus or Gates – if anything, they were better than expected.  Only better defensive fronts like South Carolina caused problems for the unit. 

If we’re going back to preseason storylines, the emergence of David Andrews at center is one of the bigger individual reasons why the line had the year it did.  Just a couple of weeks before the season the starting center position was still a question worth asking. Andrews had just minimal experience in mop-up time as a freshman, and the other option at center was converting a starting guard (Burnette). As with the tackle spots, the plan had to work, and it did.  The numbers didn’t matter, but the margin for error was nonexistent.  

We might also become more aware of depth issues along the defensive line in the bowl game.  With Jenkins out and Abry Jones limited in his comeback, Georgia’s bodies up front are very limited.  We saw some of these effects in the SEC Championship.  Georgia just didn’t have any answers up front as Alabama put together sustained drives on the ground in the second half.  Of course many teams have issues stopping the Alabama ground game, but the Smith-Geathers-Jenkins line got very little relief.  The Tide weren’t able to shut down Georgia’s offense either, but they were at least able to be a little more versatile with their personnel on the defensive front. Now without Jenkins, we’ll see more Washington and Drew, but it will also mean that more is asked of Geathers.

Admittedly these are picky points, but little details like that show up and become magnified when great teams face each other. We could also add the secondary to areas where low numbers caused some shaky moments, but the early schedule allowed Georgia to navigate those waters without it showing up in the wins and losses.

Scholarship numbers aren’t a static one-year issue, and we’ll be talking about it again next year as we try to piece together a defense.  Even with a big signing class, impact true freshmen like Jordan Jenkins are few and far between.  We’ve looked at the disappearing 2010 signing class last year, and those are the guys who would be the veteran core of a 2013 team.  


Post Garner gone

Friday December 21, 2012

After 15 years associated with the Georgia program, Bulldog recruiting coordinator, assistant head coach, and defensive line coach Rodney Garner has accepted a comparable position with Auburn, his alma mater.

Before saying anything that might come across as sour grapes, we’re grateful for what Garner did at Georgia. His willingness to serve as a key member of the transition from Donnan to Richt helped stabilize the program, and that stability had a great deal to do with Mark Richt’s ability to enjoy immediate success in 2001 and 2002. From Richard Seymour to DeAngelo Tyson, Garner’s linemen are spread across the NFL, and more are on the way this year. 15 years of service is a long time for any coach, but it’s an eternity in the fluid world of assistant coaches.

It’s a lateral move in terms of job titles, but it might’ve just been time for both parties to go their separate ways. Georgia didn’t seem to put up as much of a fight as they did in 2009 when Lane Kiffin tried to pry Garner to Knoxville. Though he’s added the title of assistant head coach over the years, Garner has been primarily a position coach for his 15 years at Georgia. He has seen Georgia hire three defensive coordinators over him, and his career had stagnated. With aspirations to be a head coach, he likely sees Auburn as an opportunity to re-boot his career path at age 46.

The immediate concern is recruiting. Georgia has a solid class committed, and they have the opportunity to finish with a bang. Obviously the loss of the recruiting coordinator is significant. Current commitments must be reassured, and the remaining prospects will have to build new relationships with the Georgia staff.

Before we panic, Garner wasn’t the only recruiter on Georgia’s staff. Tight ends coach John Lilly was the former recruiting coordinator at Florida State and remains one of Georgia’s best closers. Mike Bobo is also an outstanding recruiter and – along with Todd Grantham – accounted for many of the key signings in the “Dream Team” class of 2011. These three, as well as Coach Richt and the rest of the remaining staff, will be in contact with recruits as soon as the rules allow. There will be the need for immediate damage control as rivals jump on a perceived moment of weakness and opportunity, but the right people are in place to keep any attrition to a minimum.

Any concerns or theories about what Georgia might do with this opening (such as bringing in a special teams coach) were put to bed by Todd Grantham almost as soon as the Garner news broke. Grantham told UGASports.com that “(Grantham) will be the person responsible for hiring Garner’s replacement, and that the hire will be for a new defensive line coach.”

If Grantham’s track record with Lakatos and Olivadotti tell us anything about Garner’s replacement, it will be that Grantham will lean on his personal and professional relationships to find a coach. Lakatos had been a longtime friend of Grantham’s before Georgia’s new coordinator announced what seemed like an obscure hire. Grantham had coached with Olivadotti’s father in the NFL.

Garner will be missed, but his departure affords Grantham the opportunity to own the composition of the defensive staff. Georgia’s 2013 line will be relatively inexperienced and thin (depending on draft decisions), and they’ll be looking to build depth quickly. The Dawgs will need a capable technician able to step in and build on the standard set for Georgia defensive linemen, and they’ll also need a strong recruiter to replace what they’re losing in Garner. Hopefully such a man exists in Grantham’s contacts list.


Post Schedule will force a quicker decision on Mitchell

Tuesday December 18, 2012

The tug-of-war over Malcolm Mitchell looks to continue into the offseason. The need at cornerback is obvious, but so is Mitchell’s potential as a receiver. There will be several sub-plots to the story, and the readiness of guys like Blake Tibbs or Shaq Wiggins will nudge this story one direction or the other. If Alvin Kamara signs with Georgia, will he help in the role envisioned for the injured Tramel Terry?

To me, it comes down to schedule.

The early part of Georgia’s 2012 schedule shielded the Dawgs from much of the personnel chaos caused by the suspensions. That won’t be the case in 2013. They’ll face three ranked teams before the end of September. Mitchell claims that “he still was ‘rusty’ at receiver even by the Oct. 20 game against Kentucky when he had a career-high nine catches for 103 yards.” It was obvious that others affected, Ogletree for example, didn’t round into form until November. Mitchell noted that instincts got him far enough to get open, but longer runs like the final score against Florida require practicing technique. “That just comes with the offseason and I didn’t have the offseason at receiver,” he added.

Mitchell says bluntly that “I don’t want to play full-time defense.” He’s always going to consider himself a receiver who moonlights on defense. Georgia needs Mitchell (and everyone else) at top form out of the gate in those three big September games. Suspensions would be costly of course, but the coaches also need to move the timetable up on these personnel decisions that sometime linger well into August camp. Mitchell’s preference to be offense first means that he won’t have time (or motivation, really) to develop into the kind of cornerback he’d need to be to make the effort worthwhile.

The defense needs the help, but the offense could be truly special with Mitchell focused on that side of the ball. We know that’s his preference, and I expect that the coaches will realize the importance of Mitchell dedicating the offseason to perfecting his craft at receiver.

UPDATE: The assistants can tug all they want, but the Top Dawg has made it clear: Mitchell is a receiver. “I doubt he plays any more corner. I think he needs to play one position,” Mark Richt told the media on Tuesday. “If he’s going to be the best he can be at either position, I think he needs to concentrate on just one of them and receiver is where he’s going to be.”


Post Hoops update: post-exams edition

Tuesday December 18, 2012

Georgia’s mens and womens programs emerged from the first games after exams headed in opposite directions. There are just a couple of weeks until conference play begins, but we’ve already learned quite a bit about the squads so far.

The men missed a golden opportunity for a decent win over an Iona team that made the NCAA Tournament field a year ago. Georgia overcame a slow start and took several second half leads, but the Dawgs surrendered 12 three-pointers to the visiting Gaels and had a team-wide collapse at the free throw line. The overtime loss was Georgia’s third in a row and the seventh in the last eight games. Yes, it’s to the point of starting to ask some unpleasant questions.

The Iona loss masked some positive developments. The offense was more productive as the team was able to work the ball inside and find guys like Donte Williams (16 points). The Dawgs shot 44% which is still an improvement over the season average of just under 40%. Even more promising was the continued development of a decent freshmen class. Morris continues to earn playing time, and Mann had his best game yet.

Unfortunately, leaning on the freshmen so much implies something about the upperclassmen. Georgia was able to lean on a pair of veteran guards (and the freshman Caldwell-Pope) to somewhat compensate for an absent frontcourt last season. While the frontcourt has made marginal strides this year, the drop-off in the backcourt has been precipitous. You’re just not getting production from senior guards Brantley and Williams. The freshmen are fine, but they’re not going to have an impact like Caldwell-Pope had a year ago. Even with KCP you take the good with the bad – he’s a gifted scorer, but you want your best player to make better decisions than the rushed, off-balance shot he attempted with no shot clock and 20 seconds left at the end of regulation on Saturday.

The backcourt isn’t the only spot where there’s a vacuum in production from veteran players. Marcus Thornton is banged up again, but he hadn’t posted more than 8 points in any of the first eight games. More importantly, the fall in production of Djurisic has been significant. Nemi’s big enough to bang around the basket, but he’s only getting to the line just over two times per game. We know he prefers to face the basket, but his three-point percentage has been cut in half from 36.4% a year ago to 18.5% this season. He continues to be in love with the outside shot though and has already attempted half as many three-pointers as he did as a freshman.

In short, it’s a mess. The good news? Have you seen the rest of the SEC?

In a more pleasant development, the women built on their unblemished record over the weekend with a 93-42 thrashing of Lipscomb. Georgia’s defense was relentless, and 23 steals led to numerous transition chances that helped Georgia shoot over 50%. The Lady Dogs are now 11-0 and sit just outside the top 5. Andy Landers has a luxury he hasn’t had much of in the past ten years: quality depth. There’s a strong core of upperclassmen and a very talented group of freshmen and sophomores. Landers has been able to work the newcomers in quite a bit, and they’ve responded. After several seasons of running players like Houts and James for 35-40 minutes per game out of necessity, Georgia can now run in waves of players in roughly 5-minute intervals. They’re able to play much more of the pressure defense Landers prefers, and the results have been promising so far. The team will still rely on its seniors – especially James, Armstrong, and Hassell – but the depth will help make sure that the team can finish the season with lots in the tank.

If there’s any uncertainty, it’s that Landers’ squad hasn’t been tested with top-quality competition yet. Rutgers and Georgia Tech were good opponents, and New Mexico’s Pit is traditionally a tough place in which to win. Though Georgia’s next two opponents aren’t ranked, TCU and Illinois still represent a step up in quality from the Mercers and Lipscombs of the world. They’ll give Georgia a chance to test their road chops before league play begins in January. Georgia’s last trip to TCU two years ago was a near-disaster, and Anne Marie Armstrong had to sink an ultra-long range three pointer at the buzzer for the team to escape with a win. This Georgia team is in a much better place and should arrive at the January 3rd SEC home opener against Missouri with their perfect record intact.


Post 10 biggest moments of the 2012 regular season

Monday December 17, 2012

There’s still one big game to go, but we have some down time to look back at some of the most important moments of the regular season. These plays didn’t all come at critical times (like a Gurley touchdown late in a rout of Vanderbilt), but they all were significant moments in the story of the 2012 regular season either for individuals or the team.

10. Samuel stuffs the fake punt. Georgia had scored just before the end of the third quarter to take a 24-20 lead on Missouri. It was Georgia’s first lead of the game, and it came during a stretch where both teams posted points on four consecutive drives. The fact that neither team was doing much to stop the other had to weigh on Missouri coach Gary Pinkel’s mind, because he called for a fake punt on 4th-and-11 from his own 35. The play actually had a good chance of success and was blocked well, but Richard Samuel was able to shed his blocker and stop the punter short of the first down marker. The Dawgs added a field goal on their next possession and set the stage for Jarvis Jones’ heroics.

9. Grown-man Jarvis. Samuel’s play on the fake punt stopped any momentum Missouri had, but Georgia was still only up 7 on a team that had showed an ability to score quickly. The two teams traded punts midway through the fourth quarter, and Georgia pinned the hosts back on their own 12. A pass interference penalty seemed to bail the Tigers out of trouble and gave them a first down. Jarvis Jones dropped back into coverage on the next play and sat in the underneath passing lane. James Franklin threw right at him, and Jones picked off the pass. He returned it just short of the goal line, and the Dawgs were able to score and open up a 14-point lead. Jones wasn’t finished – he came on a speed rush during Missouri’s next drive and forced a fumble. The Dawgs recovered inside the Missouri 10, and they added another score for a much more comfortable final margin.

8. Norman recovers the onside kick. Even with a bye week, Georgia wasn’t able to shake off the blues of the South Carolina loss. They found themselves in an early hole at woeful Kentucky. It was the kind of night where Marshall Morgan had to bank in a short field goal off the upright just to give Georgia a thin 16-14 halftime lead. Georgia didn’t establish a multiple-possession lead until the fourth quarter, and they needed a roughing the punter call to sustain that drive. Even after the Dawgs went up 29-17, they couldn’t put the upset-minded hosts away. Kentucky put together a scoring drive to pull within five with four minutes left. Georgia’s defense had few answers at that point, and you had that sense of dread about what would happen if Kentucky got the ball back trailing by less than a touchdown. The Wildcats attempted an onside kick, and it was executed fairly well. Kentucky’s blockers controlled the first line of Georgia’s return team, and the Wildcat kicker had a good chance at diving on the ball. The dribbled kick took just a little too long to advance the required ten yards, and the Kentucky kicker had to wait for it to roll. That delay gave Connor Norman an opportunity to sprint in from the side of the play and pounce on the ball right before the Wildcat kicker curled around it. Georgia’s offense was able to get a few first downs and kill enough clock to keep the ball away from Kentucky until the waning seconds, and the Dawgs escaped Lexington.

7. 3rd and 25. Ole Miss had been playing well and were on a little roll after posting their first SEC wins in several seasons. A Homecoming loss would cost the Dawgs everything they had earned in Jacksonville. Georgia’s offense was sluggish in the first half with the only score coming on the hidden ball play. Ole Miss looked in position to take a lead into halftime – especially as Georgia wasted time and lost yards on sacks during their final drive of the half. Instead of a likely field goal opportunity, Georgia was faced with a desperate 3rd-and-25 from the Ole Miss 40. Somehow Tavarres King got behind the Rebel secondary, and Aaron Murray threw his best pass of the half for a touchdown. Georgia rode the momentum to a second half rout.

6. Tough enough. After some poor performances and after a week dealing with the whole “soft” challenge and controversy, Georgia was determined to show something different in Jacksonville. The Bulldog defense took the field first and immediately brought pressure against the Gator offense. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was hit and fumbled on the game’s first play from scrimmage. He recovered the fumble, but Georgia kept up the pressure. Damian Swann came on a blitz from the slot on third down and again separated Driskel from the ball. This time Jarvis Jones was able to recover the ball for Georgia, and the Dawgs were set up early on the Florida 20. Todd Gurley took it in a few plays later, and Georgia had served notice that they were ready for a brutally physical game.

5. Gurley plows through Vanderbilt. We were introduced to Todd Gurley during the season opener when he followed up a powerful touchdown run with a kickoff returned all the way. But Buffalo was one thing, and Gurley was held to just 65 yards in the SEC opener. His next big showcase came in the SEC home opener. Gurley and Keith Marshall combined for 212 yards and four touchdowns. Late in the third quarter, Gurley topped off the scoring with this run. He took a handoff out of the pistol, got up a head of steam through a nice hole, and shed four would-be tacklers on the way to the endzone. Gurley had more significant runs than this late score in a blowout win, but few of them showed off his combination of power and speed like this one.

4. Rambo takes the ball. It’s likely that Georgia Tech wasn’t going to do much to stop the Georgia offense, but that was the case in 2008 also. Tech had put up a basketball score a few weeks earlier against UNC, and they were used to having to compensate for poor defense. Georgia scored immediately, but Tech began their own march towards a score. The Jackets put together a 10-play drive that set them up on the Georgia 20. Tech back Robert Godhigh ripped off another run that took the ball inside the Georgia 10. With a host of Georgia defenders slowing Godhigh’s progress, Bacarri Rambo was able to go for the ball. Rambo wrested the ball away and took off down the south sideline before he was forced out around midfield. The Dawgs scored for the second time just a few plays later, and Tech didn’t come close to the endzone again until the fourth quarter.

3. Commings sends Tennessee packing. Georgia’s defense hadn’t done much to stop Tennessee since the second quarter. The Dawgs had to protect a single-score 51-44 lead for much of the fourth quarter. Sanders Commings had spent much of September at safety as he covered for the suspended Rambo, and this was his first game back at cornerback full-time. Georgia turned the Vols over on three consecutive possessions to secure the narrow win, and Commings was responsible for two of those turnovers. The Dawgs avoided the upset and preserved their undefeated record – for another week, anyway.

2. Mitchell breaks open the WLOCP. Though Aaron Murray had struggled for most of the Florida game, Georgia’s coaches turned to the passing game clinging to a one-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. The drive started slowly and needed a defensive holding penalty to move the chains. Murray then completed four of his next five passes. A short second down pass to Malcolm Mitchell had to be reviewed, but it set Georgia up with a manageable 3rd-and-5 in Florida territory. Florida showed tight coverage, and Murray was able to find Mitchell again. A move back to the inside got Mitchell clear of his defender, and Florida’s tighter coverage meant that Mitchell suddenly found himself with a lot of green in front of him. He took off towards the north endzone, evaded a couple of desperate attempts to catch him, and gave Georgia and 8-point lead.

1. Jones thwarts the Gators. We started this list with a Jarvis Jones play that gave Georgia a touchdown, and we end it with a Jones play that prevented an opponent’s touchdown. Mitchell’s score gave Georgia a larger lead over Florida, but the Gators were still within one possession of a tie game. They began to find success mixing the run with passes to tight end Jordan Reed, who was creating matchup problems against Georgia’s linebackers. Just inside the Georgia 20, Reed caught a short pass and broke free of Alec Ogletree. Like Mitchell on his scoring play, Reed’s evasion of the initial tackle opened up a path for a score. Georgia’s defenders gave chase, but it looked as if Florida would have the ball inside the five at worst if Reed didn’t score. Branden Smith came in from the side and dove at Reed, forcing the Florida receiver to jump. Jarvis Jones had started rushing the passer but turned as soon as it became clear that he couldn’t get to the quarterback in time. He began pursuing Reed. The slight delay caused as Reed jumped to hurdle Smith gave Jones a chance to catch up with the receiver, and Jones punched the ball free into the endzone. Sanders Commings dove on the loose ball, and the Dawgs were able to run out the clock to secure the win and claim the inside track to a consecutive SEC East championship. Even more, it meant Georgia’s first back-to-back wins over the Gators in over two decades.

Do you have a few different moments in mind? A different order? Let’s hear them in the comments.


Post “You get better location and cheaper prices buying over the Internet.”

Friday December 14, 2012

Nebraska AD Tom Osborne states the obvious in a story about ticket sales for the Capital One Bowl.

Georgia’s doing reasonably well, selling 10,000 of its 12,500 allotment so far for the January 1st game. Nebraska has only sold 4,000. There are several reasons for their slow sales: Nebraska isn’t around the corner, the economy isn’t all that hot, the Huskers played in this same bowl last year, and did you see their last game?

Osborne identifies another “problem,” at least from the perspective of the school.

“The problem is so many people buy tickets now from the secondary market,” Osborne said. “People sometimes feel like you get better location and cheaper prices buying over the Internet. It’s really difficult anymore to assess how many fans you’re really going to have in that stadium.”

He estimates that as many as half of his school’s fans in Orlando last year didn’t buy tickets through the school. Teams are often held accountable for the unsold portion of their allotment, so it’s in their interests to sell as many tickets as possible. But fans know they can get better seats at a discount elsewhere. Fans don’t want to see their school take a hit, but they’re only loyal to a point.


Post Bama’s Dial won’t be suspended…and that’s OK

Friday December 14, 2012

The SEC announced today that “Alabama defensive end Quinton Dial won’t be suspended for his disputed hit on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray in the SEC title game on Dec. 1.”

I’m not exactly sure what a “disputed hit” is. There was nothing disputed about the excessive shot Dial put on Murray. SEC coordinator of officials Steve Shaw admitted that “we missed the call.” There’s no question that the hit broke the NCAA rule that “No player shall target and initiate contact to the head or neck area of a defenseless opponent.” The SEC didn’t say today that the hit was clean and legal; they just ruled that it didn’t merit a suspension.

A suspension isn’t a do-over. I know a lot of Georgia fans feel that no suspension means that Dial got away with the hit…and he did, then and now. Review by the league office isn’t a way to make up for penalties that should have been called. If that were the case, half the conference would have been suspended by the league office at one time or another. If Dial’s hit were flagrant enough to merit a suspension – penalty or not – then the league should have taken action. I’m not so sure it wasn’t anything beyond your garden variety cheap shot though. Georgia was flagged for an unnecessary roughness penalty against Alabama’s quarterback during the game, and Alec Ogletree won’t be suspended either.

We can debate whether the hit on Murray rose to the level of the hits that got Trae Elston and D.J. Swearinger suspended earlier in the year. The consistency in judgement calls like this is a whole other topic.

The league also said that “all subsequent action will be handled internally by the two institutions,” meaning that the likelihood of Dial missing the BCS Championship game is zero.