Georgia’s women’s basketball team earned a #4 seed in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. The seed is Georgia’s highest starting position since receiving a #3 seed in 2006 and 2007. With Georgia’s legacy and tradition, it’s not quite right to say that a #4 is evidence of a program on its way back, but it is recognition of one of Georgia’s strongest teams in several seasons.
Georgia will be aiming for its third consecutive Sweet 16 appearence. Despite earning a #5 and #6 seed over the past two seasons, Georgia has managed to pull some mild second-round upsets and advance. Now it’s Georgia turn to play the role of the favorite for the first time in five seasons. The Lady Dogs are coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit in the SEC Tournament, but they’ve had two weeks to continue to get healthy and work on some persistent problems.
The Lady Dogs will begin the tournament in Tallahassee on Sunday at noon against Marist. Marist, a small school from my old stomping grounds in Poughkeepsie, NY, has been a mid-major success story in women’s hoops under coach Brian Giorgis. The Red Foxes have dominated the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), and with seven consecutive league titles they’ve become a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. They blew through the league again this year with a 17-1 conference record.
So while Marist will be a heavy underdog, they’ll be as comfortable and familiar with the pressures of the tournament as Georgia. The two programs met a couple of times during the middle of last decade – Georgia pulled away to win a close game on Marist’s court, and they had a little easier time when the teams met in the NCAA Tournament a season later.
Joining Marist and Georgia in Tallahassee are #12 seed Florida Gulf Coast and #5 seed St. Bonaventure. The winners of Sunday’s games will meet on Tuesday evening.
The SEC Women’s Basketball Tournament returns to Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena on Thursday, and it’s a tradition around here to do a preview of one of our favorite non-football SEC events.
There’s one dominant theme this year: farewell. Two of the league’s more veteran coaches have already announced that they won’t be returning. Hanging over the event will be the possibility that it could also be the last SEC Tournament for the conference’s and sport’s greatest coach. There will be a little added energy around the crowd given the potential magnitude of the event.
There’s a lot to watch for on the court. The SEC continues to be outside the national title discussion, but there are several strong teams each with a fighting chance to cut down the nets on Sunday. That there’s no clear-cut favorite this year should make for some interesting games. Even the bottom teams in the conference have made some noise this season. For Georgia, it’s an opportunity to return to the top of the conference for the first time in a decade. They’re as healthy as they’ve been in months, and roles and identity are well understood now. The Lady Dogs wrapped up a bye and the third seed with Sunday’s win over LSU, but all that earns them is an extra day of rest. They’ll dive right in on Friday with a likely rematch against a very good South Carolina team that took them to the buzzer just a few weeks ago.
Georgia’s Path Through the Tournament:
Thursday / First Round: Bye
Friday / Quarterfinals: vs. South Carolina-Alabama winner, ~10:00 p.m. ET. FSN
1. Kentucky (24-5, 13-3): The Wildcats are your regular season champion, and they’ve been the frontrunner since a January 12th win over Tennessee. The ‘Cats started SEC play a perfect 10-0, but they stumbled in early February. A three-game losing streak featured a blowout loss against an inspired Tennessee team, and it also included a bad showing against 11th-place Alabama. UK has since recovered to win their final three games, and that was enough to secure the regular season crown.
Kentucky starts with relentless pressure defense. They’ll press full-court, and they lead the league in steals and turnover margin. Of course that creates a lot of transition buckets, but what makes Kentucky a champion is that they can score in the halfcourt too. They lead the SEC in three-point shooting, and they’re the best at getting offensive rebounds. Put together, it’s no surprise that they also lead the conference in scoring.
Kentucky is led by their guards, notably junior A’dia Mathies. It should say plenty about Mathies that not only does she lead the team in scoring and assists – this 5’9″ guard also has the most rebounds on the team. 77 of those rebounds were on the offensive glass. While Mathies is the player that gets things going for the ‘Cats, they get consistent shooting from Bria Goss and Keyla Snowden. Though those three guards lead UK in scoring, I think a big difference in this Kentucky team is the midseason addition of UConn transfer Samarie Walker. Walker gives UK a legitimate presence inside, and that creates tremendous opportunities for the capable guards.
Can Kentucky take the tournament title to go along with its regular season championship? They were a perfect 18-0 in Lexington this year, but they – like most any team – are more vulnerable away from home. The ‘Cats had dropped three straight road games before righting the ship with their final two home games. Kentucky thrives on its defense, and teams that can solve the press and make it a halfcourt game can give the Wildcats trouble.
2. Tennessee (21-8, 12-4): Any discussion of SEC women’s basketball comes down to Tennessee, and this is no exception. There are so many possible storylines with this team, and of course they all start with the future of Pat Summitt. Summitt has been increasingly hands-off with this team, at least on the court, and there is speculation that this might be her last SEC Tournament at the helm of the program she built. While any formal announcment on her behalf would understandably overshadow anything else that happens in Nashville, just the possibility of the end will dominate the conversation.
That brings us to the team. Tennessee’s season has been rocky, especially by their standards. They’ve lost eight games against a typically tough schedule, but it’s the home losses to good-but-not-great teams like South Carolina and Arkansas that get your attention. This is a vulnerable Tennessee team, and it doesn’t all have to do with talent. When Tennessee is at their best, as they were against Kentucky just a few weeks ago, no one in the conference compares. But that intensity has let them down several times this year.
Tennessee fans remember the 1997 team that lost 10 games but still got it together for the second of three straight national titles. But that team had what this one lacks: a consistent superstar. There is no Chamique Holdsclaw on this Tennessee team. There are great pieces. Johnson might be the best post player in the conference. Stricklen is a threat to score on anyone. Massengale has made a huge impact. I could continue down the roster, but the rest of the SEC knows it well. There is talent, but there isn’t that consistent star to set the standard.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see them win the tournament, especially given the emotions involved. The team will be laser-focused, and Tennessee fans will likely be even more of a presence than usual in order to be a part of what could be Summitt’s swan song. On the other hand, a possible quarterfinal matchup against Vanderbilt could be veeeerrrrry interesting.
Georgia
3. Georgia (22-7, 11-5): Georgia is a bit of a buffer between the top of the league and the large pack of teams in the middle. Georgia’s done enough to separate themselves from the pack, but an 0-3 record against the top two teams doesn’t merit inclusion with the favorites. It’s been tough to get a read on Georgia. They have a win over a good Georgia Tech team, but they dropped winnable games against ranked opponents Georgetown and Gonzaga. The story was similar in conference. They generally played well, but losses at Vanderbilt and Florida kept the Lady Dogs from the top of the SEC. Both in and out of conference the Lady Dogs have been just-barely-almost there on the outside of doing some really big things.
Injuries have held Georgia back at times, and those midseason knocks were especially dire for a team that doesn’t go more than 8 or 9 deep to begin with. Inconsistent offense has also plagued Georgia. They aren’t incredibly big inside, rebounds can be hard to come by, and they can get stuck passing the ball around the perimeter if the entry pass isn’t available. The Lady Dogs lean on good defense, usually with favorable results. Four players have posted at least 50 steals. When the defense isn’t just tough but truly disruptive, this is a dangerous team.
It’s a nice lineup. Armstrong has emerged as one of the league’s most well-rounded players. Hassell uses position and agility to overcome size disadvantages inside. Miller can turn a game from outside. James can create offense. Mitchell can be a shut-down defender who does the little things on offense. The bench goes 3 to 4 deep, and the top reserves have all contributed at key moments.
The Pack
4. LSU (20-9, 10-6): Things looked shaky for LSU midway through the SEC schedule. They were mired in the lower half of the division with a 4-5 SEC record. An upset of Kentucky that handed the SEC champs their first conference loss of the season turned things around for first-year head coach Nikki Caldwell, and the Tigers ran off six straight wins. They entered the last game of the season with a chance to finish as high as third. Still, fourth place isn’t bad for where LSU found themselves several weeks ago.
LSU’s physical style lends itself to games in the 40s and 50s, and they like it that way. Their defense could keep them in a game against anyone in the league, and they’ve already beaten their likely quarterfinal and semifinal opponents. At the same time, their relative lack of firepower on offense makes it unlikely that they’ll keep up in a higher-scoring contest.
5. Arkansas (21-7, 10-6): If there’s a surprise in the SEC this year, it’s been Arkansas. They’ve done a good job of flying under the radar and managed to spend the season just on the outside of the rankings despite entering the final day of the regular season tied for third place. They were all but written off when they started conference play with four straight losses, but coach Tom Cullen turned things around. The Hogs went on a streak of 10 wins in 11 games, highlighted by wins over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, and South Carolina. A loss at South Carolina on the last day of the season knocked them out of a first-round bye, but Arkansas has developed into a dangerous team and will play in the NCAA Tournament.
The Hogs feature a true inside-outside combination. Sarah Watkins is one of the more underrated post players in the SEC. Guard C’eira Ricketts isn’t much of an outside threat, but she’s a slasher that can get to the basket. The Arkansas perimeter offense comes from sharpshooter Lyndsay Harris. Harris can be streaky and isn’t shy about putting it up, but when she’s on she can hit from anywhere.
6. South Carolina (21-8, 10-6): Dawn Staley finally broke through. The Gamecocks have risen from the bottom of the conference to a .500 finish and now to double-digit conference wins. They served notice with an historic win in Knoxville that snapped Tennessee’s run of homecourt SEC success and ended years of Gamecock futility against the Lady Vols. They’re less than 10 points away from a 13-3 SEC record, and they’ve only lost one conference game by more than 10 points.
The Gamecocks are another strong defensive team and play with an intensity that befits their coach. They lead the league in scoring defense, giving up under 50 points per game. Like LSU, South Carolina would prefer a low-scoring grind of a game, and they usually get it. On offense SC leans heavily on guard play. Markeshia Grant and La’Keisha Sutton are threats to go off at any time. If they have a weakness, it’s on the interior.
7. Vanderbilt (21-8, 9-7): It says a lot that a team that has impressive wins over Tennessee and Georgia and spent most of the season in the Top 25 winds up with the #7 seed. Vandy was just on the outside of a group of five teams that finished with between 5 and 7 SEC losses, and they weren’t far from coming out on top of that group. Just a single three-point loss at LSU last week could have meant the difference between a top four finish and their #7 seed.
Unfortunately that fate sets them up with a difficult bracket. Vandy will enjoy the hometown crowd and should handle Mississippi State. Tennessee awaits in the quarterfinals, and we’ve already been over their motivation. I don’t know that the tournament has ever had a more anticipated #2 vs. #7 matchup. Vandy won’t be scared; they’ve already knocked off Tennessee, and that was no fluke.
Vanderbilt has the makings of a very potent offense. Their halfcourt execution is solid – they lead the league in shooting percentage and assists. They feature the SEC’s leading scorer, sophomore guard Christina Foggie. They can score outside or work inside to forward Tiffany Clarke. Clarke and frontcourt teammate Stephanie Holzer are two of the top seven rebounders in the SEC.
Vandy isn’t terribly deep this year; only eight players have seen most of the action. That depth might’ve caught up with them down the stretch. They’ve lost three of their last five games, and only a circus shot at the buzzer prevented a fourth. They have the firepower to play with and beat anyone in the league, but defense can be spotty – a big problem when the scorers are having an off night.
8. Florida (18-11, 8-8): If there’s a team in the tournament playing for its postseason life, it’s Florida. A much-needed win over Georgia put them in a position to finish with a .500 conference mark, but they’ll likely have to advance to Saturday and upset Kentucky in order to feel comfortable about making the NCAA Tournament. Florida has played in a lot of close games and lost more than their share. They came within 5 of Kentucky, and they took both Arkansas and Vanderbilt to overtime on the road. They probably won’t be an easy out.
9. Auburn (13-16, 5-11): Auburn is one of at least two programs for which this SEC Tournament will be the last for their coach. Nell Fortner is stepping down after eight up and down seasons with the Tigers. She came to Auburn with impressive crednetials: she had coached in the WNBA, coached the 2000 U.S. Olympic team to a gold medal, and was a respected broadcaster. That background created some big expectations, and Fortner wasn’t quite able to live up to those expectations. Her Auburn program had a high-water mark in 2008-2009 wehn DeWanna Bonner led them to a 30-4 record and the SEC regular season title, but the rest of the story has been somewhat disappointing. Fortner’s overall SEC mark is more than 10 games below .500, and she wasn’t able to build on that great 2009 team.
This year’s Auburn team hasn’t made much noise. They swept four games against the bottom two teams in the league, and an upset of South Carolina was enough to separate them from the bottom of the conference. They could put together an inspired effort for Fortner and spoil Florida’s season, but there’s a definite gulf in class even between the #8 and #9 seeds.
10. Mississippi State (14-15, 4-12): The Bulldogs will also say farewell to their coach after this tournament. Sharon Fanning-Otis is one of the veterans of SEC coaching with more experience than anyone outside of Summitt and Landers. She’s built a moderately successful program in Starkville whose fortunes have waxed and waned as several high-profile players like LaToya Thomas and Tan White worked their way through. As recently as 2010, MSU finished third in the league and advanced to the NCAA Sweet 16, but the past two seasons have been much less successful. They can get scoring from Diamber Johnson, but she doesn’t have much help.
The Longshots
11. Alabama (12-18, 2-14): The Tide have been near the bottom of the conference for several seasons, but they showed life towards the end of the season. They knocked off conference champ Kentucky thanks to a 50-point explosion in the first half, and they led LSU until the last minute. It’s been a tough year with injuries, high(low?)lighted by the loss of senior guard Ericka Russell. Jasmine Robinson has emerged as the top scorer and led the Tide over Kentucky. They’ll find it tough to score against South Carolina’s defense but could find themselves within a few baskets in a low-scoring opening game.
12. Ole Miss (12-17, 2-14): The Rebels enter the tournament on a long slide. They upset Arkansas and beat Alabama in mid-January to improve to 2-3 in SEC play, but they haven’t won since. 11 straight losses can kill a team’s heart, but that hasn’t happened to Ole Miss. To their credit, they continue to challenge teams. In their last four games they took rival Mississippi State to overtime, only lost by 10 to Tennessee, trailed Georgia by just two at halftime, and played Auburn to within three points. 5’4″ guard Valencia McFarland is one of the conference’s most entertaining scorers. They’ve already posted a win over first-round opponent Arkansas this year and could do it again if the Hogs aren’t wide awake.
Via Holly Anderson at SI, some information from Chick-fil-A Bowl CEO Gary Stokan:
According to…Stokan, three of the top five highest-drawing annual conventions in Atlanta are the SEC Championship Game, the Chick-fil-A Bowl and the Chick-fil-A kickoff game. Stokan credits poultry-sponsored football with bringing in $6 million in state sales tax.
I appreciate Michael Elkon’s effort to think outside the (penalty) box by suggesting the SEC take its championship games on campus to larger stadiums. He has a point – it seems incongruous that around 18,000 more tickets were sold for Georgia’s Coastal Carolina game than for either of its two appearances in the Georgia Dome.
Stokan’s statement illustrates why Atlanta (and the state of Georgia) will fight tooth and nail to maintain, if not expand, their presence in the college football market. It’s a year-round enterprise that involves everything from a golf tournament to fundraising to a now-defunct women’s basketball doubleheader. Oh, and football games. There would be a lot of money at stake if Atlanta’s role in the college football scene were diminished, and the effects would ripple down through the many service and hospitality industries that facilitate the influx of college football fans.
Of course that same economic impact makes those games attractive plums for Atlanta’s competition. For college football, the only comparable facility in the SEC footprint has been the Superdome in New Orleans. With the conference’s expansion into Texas and Missouri, the number of domed facilities in SEC territory triples. The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, the Alamodome in San Antonio, and Reliant Stadium in Houston have all hosted the Big 12 Championship game and would love to get their hands on some lucrative SEC neutral-site games.
We’ve already seen a shift of sorts towards Dallas. The Chick-fil-A preseason event has been strong for the past couple of seasons thanks to appearances by LSU and Alabama. But the Georgia-Boise State game in 2011, while still a major interconference matchup, drew second billing to the LSU-Oregon game played simultaneously in Dallas. The Atlanta folks have doubled down in 2012 with a pair of ACC/SEC games on opening weekend, but when you’re talking about “JV status” in regards to one of those Atlanta games, it’s hardly the narrative-setting event we’ve seen in recent years. Certainly not when Dallas will offer up Alabama vs. Michigan.
The SEC Championship is committed to the Georgia Dome through 2017. After that, it’s open season. A lot can change in the next five years – we might have a bigger SEC with even more venues entering the bidding. One big factor we’ve discussed before will be the future of the Georgia Dome and the future of professional football in Atlanta. An open-air stadium would just about kill Atlanta’s chances of hosting late-season or post-season games, and a Georgia Dome left to decay without an NFL tenant probably won’t be in the condition to compete with several other alternatives within the SEC footprint.
Stokan’s correct about the impact of college football on his city and state, but he’s under attack from several sides. Comparable facilities in SEC territory will be lining up to host the games. Local interests are lining up to replace or supplant the Georgia Dome with an open-air facility offering little utility outside of the NFL. College football is currently very, very good to the city of Atlanta, but it might not always be so. It would be embarrassing, not to mention costly, for the city to diminish its competitive position in the market for college football games just as the sport’s Hall of Fame opens in town.
Over the past couple of weeks, three members of Georgia’s strength and conditioning program have left the program. This wasn’t a mutiny or a housecleaning. John Kasay came out of retirement in a part-time role to help establish Joe Tereshinski’s program a year ago. With that mission accomplished, Kasay is returning to retirement. Longtime strength assistant Keith Gray took an opportunity to work with an NFL program. And Thomas Brown has been offered a chance to start his coaching career.
It’s an important time of the year for conditioning, and not just because mat drills are back in the news. This is one of the few times during the academic year when the team can focus primarily on conditioning. It’ll be spring practice time soon, and in just over two months the team will split for summer break. Of course most, if not all, will be in Athens a good portion of the summer, but the focus then will increasingly turn to preparation for the season. This is the time when a lot of the offseason strength devlopment occurs.
With two vacancies on the staff, Tereshinski has some options for the direction of the strength program. There were obvious results from the changes he put into place last year, but the job isn’t complete. Georgia still faded at the end of several games. That’s not a knock against Tereshinski; no one was expecting Georgia to be among the best-conditioned programs in the nations within a year. It’s a reminder that the job isn’t done.
It’s also an opportunity to expand the scope of the program. It’s one thing to bring the team up to a certain level of strength and maintain that. Tereshinski and Kasay were the right men to bring back that attitude of toughness that led to so many of last year’s offseason gains. Michigan State’s defensive line showed us that the team can always stand to be stronger. But there are also other areas – endurance, speed, and agility – where strength and toughness alone are only part of the story.
With respect to former players Gilbert and Bradberry, Tereshinski’s staff could use an injection of professional talent. Tereshinski has done much to get up to speed with modern techniques and methods, but there’s another world of professionals who are teaching those methods daily. You only have to look around at some of the groups and trainers players seek out during the offseason and prior to NFL workouts to learn who some of the more respected names are in the industry.
We wish the three members of the staff that are leaving well, but their departure opens up a chance for Tereshinski to add skills and experience that were missing from his program. The athletic admininstration has pledged that they’ll give the program the resources it needs, and this is a big area of need to continue and to build on the gains made in the past year.
The exodus from the Maryland football program has been something to watch. One of the Terps seeking a new home is offensive lineman Max Garcia, a 6’4″, 290 lb. guard/tackle from right here in Norcross. Garcia was a 3* prospect in 2010 according to Rivals.com. He’s done well up at Maryland and became a 12-game starter as a true sophomore in 2011.
Garcia tells the AJC that he’d like to transfer to some place closer to home, and there is mutual interest between Garcia and Georgia.
It’s useful (to me anyway) to go back and look at the recruiting process and what led Garcia to leave the state in the first place. The Dawgs were Garcia’s favorite at the outset, but to use Garcia’s words, “It just never really worked out the first time around.”
(All links below are to Rivals.com recruiting articles that may or may not be behind the paywall.)
Garcia first appears on the radar as a junior in 2008 when he attended the disastrous Georgia-Alabama game. The outcome of the game didn’t turn him off; he was impressed by the atmosphere and the response of the crowd and team. Garcia noted that “Coach Searels said he likes my feet and that I am one of the top prospects on his list.” He added, “I would have to say Georgia is my leader right now.”
A few months later, in February of 2009, he claimed, “Georgia is No. 1.” He was still without a Georgia offer after attending Junior Day. Searels wanted to see him at camp first. That’s not an unusual request; summer camp is a great chance for coaches to get in-person evaluations of players who might not merit sight-unseen offers.
By April, Georgia had been replaced. “Vanderbilt would definitely be number one, then Georgia number two, but I think they are only going to bring in two offensive linemen this year and they already have one (Kolton Houston).” He was having doubts about Georgia’s numbers, and an offer didn’t seem to be in the cards.
By July, Georgia was out of the picture: “Garcia is down to three schools – Vanderbilt, Clemson and Maryland – and favors them in that order.”
Garcia continued to pick up offers during his senior season, including one from Florida State, but his top three remained the same. “Maryland, Vanderbilt, and Clemson are the main schools I am looking at,” he said. By mid-December when Garcia was ready to make his decision, he was “torn right now with Clemson and Maryland.”
Garcia chose Maryland of course. It seems pretty clear that Georgia, or at least Searels, backed off at some point early in the process. Garcia wasn’t able to make it to camp, and so a Georgia offer never came. By the summer Garcia had already moved on to consider schools like Vanderbilt.
His concerns about limited room at Georgia were legitimate: Georgia’s 2010 haul of offensive linemen was small. Kolton Houston was rated slightly higher, and Brent Benedict was a top-drawer signing out of Florida. The Dawgs added Ken Gates at the last minute (and good thing!)
Gates is the only lineman to contribute from that small class. Benedict transferred, and Houston sat out the 2011 season with an unspecified eligibility issue. Would it make sense to seek Garcia’s transfer? After sitting out a year, he’d have two years remaining – the equivalent of a junior college signing. By the time he’s eligible to play in 2013, Georgia will have nine upperclassmen on the line.
At the same time, Garcia would be more experienced as a starter for a FBS program than anyone but perhaps Burnette, Lee, and Gates. The Dawgs might be set at tackle with Theus and Beard and any one of Long/Dantzler/Ward, but experienced depth couldn’t hurt. Garcia’s 6’4″ size might even make him more valuable as a guard. If Burnette moves to center, there could be opportunities for playing time behind or alongside Lee and Gates.
If you go back to the recruiting process, it would seem that Clemson would get Garcia’s first call. Clemson was his second choice, and it would meet his criteria for being closer to home. One key factor in the story is Maryland coach Randy Edsall placing restrictions on the possible destinations for the outgoing transfers. Players like Garcia cannot transfer to another ACC school or Vanderbilt. (Yes…Edsall is being petulant enough to target Vandy.) Those restrictions would of course preclude Clemson, and so Garcia would have to choose a school not among his final three choices back in 2010.
Georgia has the advantage of being Garcia’s initial favorite, and there doesn’t seem to be any animosity about the way things worked out. The 3* rating and recruiting evaluations are irrelevant now; Garcia has already contributed a lot more to a BCS conference program than a lot of guys with higher ratings. That’s even better than having to dip into the JUCO ranks where it’s still tough to say how well someone might make the jump to the next level. If he can help shore up the depth on what should be a veteran offensive line in 2013 and 2014, he’d make a welcome addition to the Georgia program.
It didn’t take long after Brian VanGorder took the defensive coordinator job at Auburn for people to notice that his former secondary coach Willie Martinez was available. Sure enough, it looks as if Batman and Robin might be joining forces again.
Before we get all hah-hah-WillieMart, let’s distinguish between what Martinez did as a position coach and what he did (or didn’t do) as a coordinator. Since Martinez arrived in Athens in 2001, we’ve been in what should be considered the golden age of Georgia defensive backs. The Dawgs have had periods of outstanding defensive backs before, especially in the early 80s, and there has been the occasional Ben Smith or Champ Bailey. But I don’t think we’ve seen this kind of sustained run of quality from the position, and its legacy of producing professional-grade talent continues today with guys like Boykin.
If you care to, think about the state of the defensive backfield in the 1990s. You know – the one against which Ben Leard and Ronney Daniels played catch for three hours. In the entire span from 1991-2001, there were only four Bulldog defensive backs drafted: Carlos Yancy in 1995, Champ Bailey in 1999, Jeff Harris in 2000, and Jamie Henderson in 2001. Things were improving at the tail end, but the new coaching staff introduced in 2001 poured gasoline on the ember. In the comparable 11-year Mark Richt era, there have been eleven members of the UGA secondary drafted – twelve if you include Paul Oliver’s selection in the supplemental draft.
Better talent? Sure. That group also included some longshots. Jermaine Phillips and Bruce Thornton started out on the other side of the ball before becoming NFL-quality defensive backs. Thomas Davis was a find, and Tim Jennings remains the ultimate diamond in a rough. Tra Battle was thrown onto the field as a walk-on and developed into not only the hero of the 2006 Auburn game but also a good enough player to have a cup of coffee with a few NFL teams. There was some coaching and development going on.
That’s nice history, but the question going forward is whether Brian VanGorder and Martinez can catch lightning in a bottle and do it all over again. Will they be able to turn Auburn’s defense around to the extent that the Georgia defense improved from 1999 through 2002? The coaches might be the same, but several factors are different.
Returning talent. The Georgia defense really wasn’t the problem in 2000. The collection of talent on that side of the ball was the primary reason for Jim Donnan’s damning “55 years” enthusiasm. A good bit of that talent went pro after the 2000 season, but there was plenty left to work with. Auburn returns 9 defensive starters in 2012. That’s a good starting point, but it’s a group that didn’t improve very much during the season or perform well against good teams.
Mojo. In 2001, both BVG and Martinez were plucked from relative obscurity by Mark Richt. They were unproven on the big stage and hungry. Within four years they had established themselves as coaches on the rise, and it was a matter of time before each went on to bigger and better things. Both come to Auburn on different trajectories. VanGorder returns to the college ranks after an unsuccessful brief stint as a college head coach and a lukewarm few years as an NFL coordinator. Martinez is back as a position coach after struggling as a coordinator, and his Oklahoma secondary wasn’t a strength last season. That history and the need to prove themselves once again might be motivation, but there can also be an awful lot of pressure on two guys who now have very public track records.
It’s not the same SEC. SEC offenses are more diverse and productive than they were during VanGorder’s time at Georgia. There’s an interesting discussion about the future of SEC offense that will impact this environment of offense. Martinez wasn’t particularly successful at adapting. If there is a “Sabanization” trend away from the spread, does that put things back in VanGorder’s comfort zone?
The supporting cast. VanGorder and Martinez won’t be the only defensive coaches. Jon Fabris’s bizarre kickoff rituals aside, Fabris and Garner put together some very talented defensive lines whose reserves were good enough to leave early for the NFL. A weak link on the rest of the defensive staff could be damaging.
None of those are reasons why the duo can’t succeed again. They’re both accomplished coaches. We can and should expect certain familiar fundamental traits to carry over to go along with wrinkles they’ve picked up over the past decade. VanGorder will likely remain strong at in-game adjustments. We can count on pressure. The level of success VanGorder and Martinez enjoy will depend on the details: can they work with the returning players, can they recruit at a high level, and can they thrive in a different SEC?
Greg McGarity’s ridiculous defense of the 8-game conference schedule was unfortunate. We know that money is driving expansion and realignment, and those changes will have implications in the schedule. McGarity could have just put it out there: we like home games. Home games mean additional revenue and often mean wins. A ninth conference game comes at the expense of a home game, will spread additional losses around the league, and will require some tough scheduling choices that could impact revenue.
It needn’t be more complicated than what Auburn’s Jay Jacobs says. The current schedule is working, and there will have to be a significant financial incentive to deal with the risks and costs. Those incentives will determine whether the conference slate can be expanded to accomodate expansion or whether the new teams will be shoehorned into the current 8-game format.
But more conference games are better, right?
As fans, we’d much rather see another conference game instead of a cupcake game. Of course we’d also schedule like a video game and make our custom conference that goes from playing LSU to Ohio State to Oregon and back for the WLOCP. I’d like a ninth game if only because I believe that membership in a conference should have some meaning beyond revenue-sharing (silly me!), and that means playing the other members as often as possible. But the additional game comes with some big considerations.
You lose a home game every other year. That means five conference road games in some years. Georgia is currently committed to a neutral site game every year and a road nonconference game every other year. Georgia would have to do some creative scheduling gymnastics to get more than six home games in a year. Once you’re used to seven home games, taking one away can be painful.
Seven SEC teams will have an additional loss. Actual math! We can assume that most of those losses will be shared among the lower half of the league, but that extra loss could mean the difference in bowl eligibility for a team or two. At a higher level, it could cause the league to lose that second BCS bid now and then. The amount of money at stake is not a hard, quantifiable number and would vary from year to year, but it does introduce an element of risk in the SEC’s finances.
The pressure for a ninth game is more likely to come from the conference than any individual school. Schools like the extra cash from more home games, and they like the scheduling flexibility to chase a bowl bid or remain in the national picture. The conference has to pursue more money from the broadcasting rights in order to make the finances of expansion work. In exchange for those additional dollars, the networks will demand a larger inventory of games, and there’s your push for a ninth game. The conference will have to sell the schools that the additional money they’d receive from the networks would more than cover the expenses of fewer home games and the risk of diminished revenue from lost bowl or BCS bids.
What are Georgia’s options with an 8-game SEC schedule
Play the six division opponents, play a permanent West opponent, and rotate the remainder of the rest. This schedule maintains the current permanent opponent, but it will take over a decade to rotate through the rest of the West.
Drop the permanent opponent and rotate two West opponents each year. This schedule maintains the current rotation, but it eliminates the permanent opponent (Auburn).
Personally, I’m fine with the first option. Playing Auburn is an important part of Georgia’s identity as a program. I can live with fewer trips to Starkville and most of the other destinations in the West. We’ll pour one out for Baton Rouge, but no one said this process would be without sacrifice. If the conference can accept some flexibility, I like Clay Travis’s idea giving teams the right to opt out of the permanent opponent. Not a bad idea if you can get past the certain cries of unbalanced schedules.
What are Georgia’s options with a 9-game SEC schedule
Here the focus changes to the out-of-conference schedule. The 9-game schedule allows for the current permanent opponent plus two-team interdivisional rotation to continue. The loss of a home game every other year has to be accounted for (not to mention the possibility of an additional loss). You’ll see the counterbalance come in the quality of the nonconference schedule. At the least, those two games must be home games. Georgia can just about kiss goodbye the idea of a home-and-home nonconference series.
Would moving the Florida game to campus help?
In terms of the raw scheduling logistics, yes. But since our focus is on money, Georgia and Florida will likely fight to keep this a neutral-site game as long as possible. When we covered last May the coming increases to GA-FL ticket prices, we noted that the two-year haul for Georgia could be as high as $7 million by 2017. No way can either school make $7 million from the game over two years in a home-and-home arrangement.
Touching the third rail here, but what about Tech?
Yes – Georgia already has a permanent home-and-home nonconference deal. We’ve seen conference realignment wreck other longstanding series – Texas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Missouri, and even South Carolina and Clemson have looked at legislative options for protecting their annual meeting. Could it happen to Georgia and Georgia Tech? It would certainly free up wiggle room in Georgia’s nonconference schedule and allow for the occasional home-and-home.
Is it a good idea? Not to me. Even moreso than Auburn, playing Georgia Tech is what Georgia does. Control of the state is fought for and renewed annually. It would not be a good thing for Tech to exist and maybe even build its brand in some shadow parallel universe next to Georgia. The annual meeting is essential to Georgia’s standing in the state.
Bret Bielema’s on about “gentlemen’s agreements” and unwritten rules. Urban Meyer has upset the applecart by daring to pursue and sign prospects that had committed elsewhere (and who were apparently quite receptive to listen to schools other than those to which they had committed.)
It would be useful to hear Bielema explore his ideas of gentlemanly conduct and just which unwritten rules he’ll follow. “Don’t recruit someone else’s commitment.” Check. “Don’t go for two up 25 with less than 5 minutes left.” Well…
Unwritten rules are for baseball. If they’re not written, they’re not rules.
Georgia held a press conference this afternoon to announce, confirm, settle, and resolve that Orson Charles would be the only early departure from the 2011 team. Much of this news leaked out earlier in the week, but a lot of that was second-hand information. Solid, but still second-hand. Flanked by several juniors and team leaders, Mark Richt was understandably “thrilled” to reveal that all draft-eligible underclassmen, save Charles, would be returning for 2012. He also announced that sophomore quarterback Hutson Mason decided against a transfer and will remain a Bulldog.
Georgia was smart to pull together an event like this. Such press conferences are usually held to announce departures, but it’s not uncommon for high-profile players to use an event to announce their return. Being able to present a group of rising juniors and seniors of this quality to speak about why they’re returning, the common goals, and their vision for 2012 is a rare opportunity. It’s a shot of positive press during the peak of recruiting season. It’s also a gauntlet thrown: everyone pledging to return recognizes what is possible in 2012, and they’re embracing the expectations along with the possibilities. It’s now up to them to make it happen.
The biggest impact of this news will be on the defense. Almost all of the players considering the NFL draft were on that side of the ball. Now that it appears every draft-eligible junior and sophomore will return in 2012, we’re able to start thinking about a defense that will return 9 of 11 starters.
The two departing starters are big ones: Georgia sure could have used the athleticism of Tyson in the postseason (thanks, Jay Finch!), and lack of depth at the defensive end spot didn’t help as LSU’s offensive line took over and Michigan State held off the Georgia pass rush. And Boykin – it could take as many as three or four (very good) players to try to do what he did for the 2011 team.
The answer, at least at cornerback, seems clear. It’s Branden Smith’s to lose. Smith improved his coverage in 2011, and I’m entirely content with a secondary of Commings, Smith, Williams, and Rambo. The questions lie in depth. Swann played a good deal in 2011, and Marshall saw a lot of time on special teams. Chris Sanders will also play in a reserve role. Jordan Love would have helped, but he’s decided to transfer.
The picture at defensive end is a little less clear. You didn’t hear his name much in the list of players considering the NFL, but I’m thrilled to have Abry Jones back. You assume Garrison Smith has a good shot at the other end spot considering that he was first off the bench when Tyson was injured. Smith did well in relief, especially against Tech, but there wasn’t much behind him. Ray Drew, who spent much of his freshman season struggling with the transition to outside linebacker, might be more comfortable and effective on the line after adding a few added pounds.
The starting four at linebacker – Jones, Gilliard, Ogletree, and Washington – are outstanding. Washington’s consistency can be an issue, but otherwise there aren’t many weaknesses among that group. As we saw after Ogletree’s injury, depth here too is an issue. Herrera contributed well and lost playing time as the starters became healthy, but you expect his progress to continue. Having an experienced leader like Robinson to step in situationally is a valuable bonus. Ramik Wilson and other newcomers should have an opportunity to play.
I think that a lot of the depth issues we’re talking about were responsible for Georgia’s second half problems against some of its better opponents. Guys like Jenkins were able to step into immediate needs, but Georgia is still feeling the effects of a couple of underwhelming recruiting classes. No offense to guys like Jeremy Sulek who earned every bit of playing time they got, but it’s illustrative that the loss of a starter can throw the depth chart into such a crisis.
Will those depth issues be resolved in 2012? With minimal losses, it won’t be worse. Via the invaluable Recruiter’s Roster, we can see that Georgia adds in three redshirt freshmen. You expect a little development from the handful of true freshmen who saw action either on defense or special teams. There should also be a small number of true freshmen who are able to earn their way on the field, though the need for immediate contribution isn’t as strong as it might have been in 2011. So, yes, Georgia’s defense should be a little deeper overall.
There are a few gotchas about the depth. You assume a certain amount of development from one year to the next, but that doesn’t always work out. The defense will also be deeper at some spots than others. Another look at the Recruiter’s Roster reveals a scary picture on the defensive line – Mike Thornton is the only player standing between the junior class and any true freshmen. Again, it might take some position changes to help that situation while a nice 2012 haul of defensive linemen gets up to speed. Then there is always the possibility of injury. Georgia was fortunate to make it through spring and most of the season with few long-term injuries, but that’s not common. They were able to overcome the loss of Ogletree for the first half of the season against lighter competition, but they really missed Tyson and Gilliard in the postseason.
As good as the news was about everyone returning for 2012, it means that the turnover heading into 2013 is going to be brutal. This is the window when the “Dream Team” should be coming into its own, but it’s also going to require some very strong 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes to maintain the talent level on defense.
The new year means that basketball season is about to head into conference play. For the women, SEC action is already underway. The Lady Dogs had an impressive win over Arkansas last Sunday, and they’ll be in Knoxville tonight. The men start things off with a familiar foe: the quirks of the schedule and SEC Tournament mean that Alabama will be the opponent for the third time in the last four conference games. That’s not necessarily good news: the Tide dispatched Georgia twice last year and will be favored to do so again this time. Playing Alabama has a tiny bit of added significance now: Georgia and Alabama replaced coaches at the same time, and in some small way Mark Fox and Anthony Grant will be compared and contrasted as long as they hold their current posts.
With the start of conference play nigh and the football season now over, let’s play catch-up and see where our basketball teams are over a third of the way into the season. We’ll start with the men.
Men
The Team:
You didn’t have to be an expert to get an early read on the 2012 Dawgs. The departure of Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins in addition to the graduation of Chris Barnes and Jeremy Price meant that this year’s team would be woefully thin in the frontcourt. The only hope was for an impact newcomer, and that didn’t exactly happen. Georgia did bring in several young post players, but they’re understandably, well, young and are having to learn on the job.
Donte Williams and Marcus Thornton have started most of the year up front. Thornton’s had to play a bit out of position – he’s a natural small forward and not really a post, and he’s been injured for the past few games. Still, he’s managed to be Georgia’s leading rebounder out of the gate.
Nemanja Djurisic is one of the newcomers and has started while Thornton is out injured. Djurisic is “raw” personified, but he isn’t afraid to drive to the basket or fight for rebounds. He also has nice range on his shot, giving the Dawgs a fourth outside weapon when he’s in the game. John Florveus and Tim Dixon are the other newcomers providing minutes in the frontcourt, and Connor Nolte continues to contribute off the bench.
Struggles on the frontcourt have had an impact on the guards. A lot was expected of returning senior starters Dustin Ware and Gerald Robinson, and it’s been tough for either to establish consistency. A weak frontcourt means that defenses can extend on the guards, and that’s been disruptive.
There have been two positive developments in the backcourt. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was Georgia’s first McDonald’s All-American signing in 20 years, and he hasn’t disappointed. KCP leads Georgia in scoring and has the ability to make the steal, the move, or the dunk that gets the crowd on its feet. He’s a freshman and still has a lot to learn and work on in shot selection and especially defense, but he’s off to a great start. The other good development has been the play of Vincent Williams. Williams has come on as a backup point guard and shows a lot more confidence in his shot. He’s even earned the start lately over Ware.
The Season So Far:
As expected with the turnover from last season’s NCAA Tournament team, it’s been a rough go of it for the Dawgs. Georgia is 9-5 going into conference play. If there’s one thing positive in the results so far, it’s that the team hasn’t had a truly bad loss – with one exception. The home loss to a poor Georgia Tech team was possibly the low point of the season and really highlighted the deficiencies of the Dawgs. To Georgia’s credit, they rebounded and have won five straight. The Dawgs don’t really have any marquee wins under their belt, but some nice wins away from from against Notre Dame and Southern Cal were impressive.
Around the SEC:
As shaky as Georgia has looked so far, they’re far from the worst team in the league. That says a lot about the state of the bottom tier of the SEC, but it could also help the Dawgs avoid the basement even with their shortcomings. If the guards can carry the team past a couple of lower-tier conference foes, they should break clear of the bottom third of the league.
As expected, Kentucky and Florida are off to strong starts. Kentucky is the clear favorite and a national title contender, but the Gators aren’t to be dismissed. Mississippi State had moderately strong expectations after a disappointing season a year ago, and they’ve lived up to the billing so far. The Bulldogs have stepped up their typically weak nonconference slate, and they’ve met the challenge.
Alabama has been a slight disappointment. The Tide started the season ranked and won their first seven. They lost three of four in early December, but they’ve since righted the ship. Their 25-point demolition of Georgia Tech this week was appreciated, but it’s also a warning to what awaits Georgia in their SEC opener. Vanderbilt has been the league’s real disappointment. They started the year in the top 10. Some early losses to quality opponents fell in the “close call, but no shame” category, but chance after chance to establish themselves among the top third of the league was missed. A convincing win over Marquette demonstrated what the Commodores can do, but they’ve missed that target more often than not this year.
Then there’s the bottom half of the league. Each division has three teams that are going to struggle to earn much postseason notice. The West might have the slightly stronger group: LSU and Ole Miss aren’t awful, but Auburn is. Georgia and a Tennessee program with their new coach could battle for 4th/5th in the East, and South Carolina should wind up on the bottom.
Remember that the SEC is going away from divisional standings this year. Though the schedule will still follow a divisional format (which doesn’t make much sense), the teams will be sorted on overall conference record. Under this system, Georgia could realistically finish somewhere around 7th-10th this year.
If you like baseball – a LOT of baseball – the SEC is happy to oblige. With two programs entering the conference, the SEC Baseball Tournament will expand from 8 to 10 teams starting in 2012. The double-elimination format means that the tournament will stretch from Tuesday to Sunday in the week preceding Memorial Day for a total of 17 games. We’ve never been particularly impressed with the relevance of the event, but last season’s SEC Tournament provided a path for Georgia to earn a bid in the NCAA Tournament. With an additional two teams in Hoover, a few more programs could find themselves with a chance to make a push for a place in the national bracket.
As before, the seeding will be based on overall conference standings, but the division winners will be guaranteed one of the top two seeds. Here are all of the changes:
Increase from eight to 10 teams
Event will run from Tuesday through Sunday
Games played from Tuesday to Friday are double elimination with single elimination starting on Saturday with games 15 and 16.
Addition of SEC Baseball Legends Program recognized annually at tournament
TSK opened up the topic of the top (5, 10, 31) stories of 2011 across the SEC. Here’s my stab:
1) Supremacy. Within the pages of the 2011 calendar, Auburn won a national title while Alabama and LSU set themselves up to play for the next one. The case for the Tide and Bayou Bengals as the nation’s two best teams was so compelling that it was enough to overcome distaste for a rematch and a serious case of SEC fatigue from the rest of the nation. It wasn’t just supremacy in football – South Carolina notched back-to-back College World Series titles for the conference.
2) Comings and goings. At the macro level, the conference welcomed two new member schools during 2011. The real impact of expansion won’t be felt until the coming years, but the move could eventually have an impact on everything from recruiting to the location of the SEC’s marquee events. (As the Georgia Dome clock kept malfunctioning at the SECCG, I couldn’t help but wonder how long it was until Jerry Jones made a bid to move the game to one of the SEC’s newest states.)
The SEC also said farewell to a number of individuals whose personalities made following the conference more interesting. Bruce Pearl, Houston Nutt, Stephen Garcia, Charlie Weis…it won’t be the same without you. We’re glad that Mark Richt wasn’t among them.
3) Pat Summitt. Summitt’s diagnosis of early-onset dementia reached beyond the world of women’s college basketball. In vowing to coach on, Summitt brings this little-understood condition into the public eye and will doubtlessly do much for awareness and fundraising in the campaign for research, knowledge, and ultimately a cure.
4) Oversigning. The action of the season has pushed this story to the back burner, but you couldn’t avoid it for the first half of the year. The league’s decision to limit football class sizes to 25 probably won’t do much to change many of the deeper issues related to the oversigning problem, but it did at least force a conference-wide conversation about the practice.
5) The Tuscaloosa tornado. Much of the SEC landscape – from Mississippi to Georgia to our newest territory in Missouri – was scarred by a series of spring tornado outbreaks. The tornado that devastated Tuscaloosa and just missed Bryant-Denny Stadium pushed the story on to the sports pages and, if temporarily, refocused the passions of SEC fans. When even Auburn fans, players, and coaches become a positive part of a tragedy involving Alabama, you know you have an exceptional story.
Gus Malzahn is leaving Auburn, taking a significant pay cut to become the head coach at Arkansas State. There are any number of theories this morning why a guy who could have had an SEC head coaching job a year ago now takes less money to coach in the Sun Belt. To me, the most reasonable explanation is asking where Malzahn expects to be in three years. If he’s looking for a stepping stone, Vandy might not have been the best choice: it would have been tough to build much of a resume with a shiny winning record and bowl bids (note how much praise Franklin has received for a 6-6 year at Vandy this year). At Arkansas State Malzahn should, in theory, have the opportunity to take over a program in fairly good shape, lean on his familiarity with the area, and build his portfolio for the next tier of jobs for which he came up just short this year.
Including the changes at Texas A&M and Ole Miss, the SEC will see new offenses at 5 of its 14 programs for the 2012 season. We know a little bit about what we can expect from the Aggies and Rebels from their new head coaches. But it will be interesting to watch the simultaneous vacancies at Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. At the very least, a lot of playcallers around the nation (and their agents) figure to make some money.
Will so many changes across the conference lead to a sea change in SEC offenses? Not likely. A&M and Ole Miss have a ways to go before they start influencing the rest of the league. Muschamp at Florida is committed to the pro-style offense. It’s hard to imagine Saban at Alabama getting far away from the “don’t screw it up for the defense” system that has worked for him.
Auburn will be worth watching. Malzahn took some knocks in 2011, but he fielded some very good units during his first two years at Auburn. Calling to mind the back-and-forth between Blutarsky, Elkon, and Chris Brown, Gene Chizik has to consider the talent recruited for the Malzahn system. Instead of recruiting players to fit a particular system, Chizik might have to constrain his coordinator search based on the players.
Kiehl Frazier was the centerpiece of the 2011 Auburn recruiting class. His background (shotgun preference, running ability, familiarity with the spread) fit the Malzahn system well. The Tigers have a pair of veteran backs in McCalebb and Dyer who have been successful in Malzahn’s system. Quan Bray is one of several young players who were recruited for their flexibility in a spread scheme. Chizik has to worry about both sides of the ball, but finding someone who can make the most of that talent on offense before his own seat starts to warm up.
Lady Dogs earn best NCAA seed in five years
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