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Post Hoops update: if it were an NFL team, it would be time to play for the #1 pick

Monday January 14, 2013

Back when sports blogging awards were a thing, there was one called the “Job Award.” It went to the poor soul who kept plugging through his or her team’s awful season. It’s easy and fun to write about a winning season like the one we just enjoyed with Georgia football. Things were less fun in 2010, but, still – we’re not talking about a 2012 Auburn season. You have to salute (pity? wonder about?) those fans who not only show up for and watch every game but also try to make sense of it all for the rest of us.

That all applies to anyone writing about Georgia basketball these days. It’s just not enjoyable. And as bad as it is to watch and then revisit, it’s that much worse to play and coach through. It’s tough on a team that’s not all that good to come to practice and prepare for the next game with the right outlook and attention to detail that will create the foundation on which a poor team will become a better team.

Georgia’s loss at Florida in the SEC opener wasn’t unexepected, but the hosts weren’t even challenged. Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State was a missed opportunity to defend the home court against one of the league’s poorest teams. It was a measuring stick against a conference peer, and the Dawgs came up short. The offense that had a fairly productive first half by Georgia standards fell apart once Caldwell-Pope went quiet after a defensive adjustment. Georgia had some chances midway through the second half to take control of the game, but they couldn’t separate. MSU, and Jalen Steele in particular, made the Dawgs pay with their own run in the final minutes to open up the game, and Georgia wasn’t able to recover.

At 0-2 in the league, Georgia faces a tough four-game stretch where a home game against a decent LSU team might be Georgia’s best (only?) shot for their first conference win over those four games. We know by now that this team is just going to struggle to put points on the board, and so they’ll struggle to win when they can’t bring the kind of defense it takes to hold games under 60 points. With the direction of the season fairly evident now, we’ll look to the development of some promising freshmen and see if they can offer fans hope for a better future.


Post Dynasty by happenstance

Monday January 14, 2013

Alabama was dominant in the national title game a week ago. Not many around the SEC were surprised. Not only did we know Bama; the SEC has also built its current dynasty through a habit of beating the nation’s #1 team. In five of the seven years during the current streak, the SEC team that ended up winning the national title came into the game as the #2 team. That doesn’t mean all five of those teams were underdogs in the championship game, but in those five seasons the polls and computers agreed that there was a more obvious participant in the title game. In four of the seven seasons, the road to the title for the eventual champion only became clear after some improbable late-season upsets.

  • 2006: Not only did Florida get caught up in Michigan/Ohio State rematch talk, but they also needed a 5-loss UCLA team to upset mighty USC in the final week of the season.
  • 2007: The litany of upsets and poll manipulation that put a two-loss LSU team into the championship could fill its own post, but the Pitt upset of West Virginia is enough to illustrate the kind of year 2007 was.
  • 2011: LSU was going to be in the game regardless, but their opponent didn’t even win their conference. But after Oklahoma State faltered at Ames and Boise State had a placekicking meltdown for the ages, the SEC streak lived on thanks to an unlikely rematch of a game played just two months earlier.
  • 2012: Alabama’s spot for a title defense was all but booked after October, but the loss to A&M opened the door for a slew of other teams. The champs again needed intervention in order to earn the opportunity to repeat. That intervention came on a night where two top-5 title contenders fell within hours. Then Notre Dame controlled the top spot, and the SEC championship became a de facto national semifinal. It was also fortunate that Ohio State was ineligible, or we would have watched two midwestern teams fight over the SEC’s crown

I”m not trying to take anything away from Alabama and their repeat. They’ve been the best team over the body of two seasons. As the SEC has been so dominant in the title game, their spot in the game has been as fragile as an Iowa tailback. Things will change somewhat with the introduction of a playoff, but even then there will be debate. Few teams were better at the end of the season than Texas A&M, but I can’t imagine even an 8-team playoff having room for the Aggies. It’s been a little amusing then to read and listen to all of the analysis over the past week of what it will take to end the SEC’s run. There doesn’t have to be any great power rising up from the west or midwest. All it could take is a double-digit home favorite somewhere taking care of business.


Post Trouble been doggin’ my soul

Monday January 7, 2013

One reason for optimism about the 2013 Georgia offense is that for the first time since 2010, the team looks likely to return its leading rusher. It will be the first time since 2008 and only the second time under Mark Richt that Georgia returns a 1,000-yard rusher.

The relative calm surrounding the running back position is a stark contrast to the saga of Georgia’s leading rusher from 2011. Isaiah Crowell transferred to Alabama State after his dismissal from the Georgia program. Crowell had a fair season with 842 yards and 15 touchdowns, and he was named the SWAC newcomer of the year. But as with Crowell’s 850-yard debut in Athens, his first year at Alabama State can’t avoid drama.

ASU self-reported violations regarding Crowell before the season even started. The violations didn’t affect Crowell’s eligibility, but they ended up as a central issue in the firing of the school’s athletic director.

Former ASU AD Stacy Danley claims, and the school denies, that “(Danley) was pushed out at the school after he insisted that head football coach Reggie Barlow be fired for repeatedly lying” during the Crowell investigation. The whole story is a strange volley of allegations between Danley and the administration involving Danley’s role during Crowell’s reinstatement, a Burger King, the daughter of the school’s executive vice president, and the local Thai place.

Georgia has a lot on its plate between now and the 2013 season, but I’m at least glad that the cloud that seems to follow a running back wearing #1 has moved west. Considering what it seems to have cost ASU to land him, Georgia should consider itself lucky for a certain June traffic stop.


Post Garner gone

Friday December 21, 2012

After 15 years associated with the Georgia program, Bulldog recruiting coordinator, assistant head coach, and defensive line coach Rodney Garner has accepted a comparable position with Auburn, his alma mater.

Before saying anything that might come across as sour grapes, we’re grateful for what Garner did at Georgia. His willingness to serve as a key member of the transition from Donnan to Richt helped stabilize the program, and that stability had a great deal to do with Mark Richt’s ability to enjoy immediate success in 2001 and 2002. From Richard Seymour to DeAngelo Tyson, Garner’s linemen are spread across the NFL, and more are on the way this year. 15 years of service is a long time for any coach, but it’s an eternity in the fluid world of assistant coaches.

It’s a lateral move in terms of job titles, but it might’ve just been time for both parties to go their separate ways. Georgia didn’t seem to put up as much of a fight as they did in 2009 when Lane Kiffin tried to pry Garner to Knoxville. Though he’s added the title of assistant head coach over the years, Garner has been primarily a position coach for his 15 years at Georgia. He has seen Georgia hire three defensive coordinators over him, and his career had stagnated. With aspirations to be a head coach, he likely sees Auburn as an opportunity to re-boot his career path at age 46.

The immediate concern is recruiting. Georgia has a solid class committed, and they have the opportunity to finish with a bang. Obviously the loss of the recruiting coordinator is significant. Current commitments must be reassured, and the remaining prospects will have to build new relationships with the Georgia staff.

Before we panic, Garner wasn’t the only recruiter on Georgia’s staff. Tight ends coach John Lilly was the former recruiting coordinator at Florida State and remains one of Georgia’s best closers. Mike Bobo is also an outstanding recruiter and – along with Todd Grantham – accounted for many of the key signings in the “Dream Team” class of 2011. These three, as well as Coach Richt and the rest of the remaining staff, will be in contact with recruits as soon as the rules allow. There will be the need for immediate damage control as rivals jump on a perceived moment of weakness and opportunity, but the right people are in place to keep any attrition to a minimum.

Any concerns or theories about what Georgia might do with this opening (such as bringing in a special teams coach) were put to bed by Todd Grantham almost as soon as the Garner news broke. Grantham told UGASports.com that “(Grantham) will be the person responsible for hiring Garner’s replacement, and that the hire will be for a new defensive line coach.”

If Grantham’s track record with Lakatos and Olivadotti tell us anything about Garner’s replacement, it will be that Grantham will lean on his personal and professional relationships to find a coach. Lakatos had been a longtime friend of Grantham’s before Georgia’s new coordinator announced what seemed like an obscure hire. Grantham had coached with Olivadotti’s father in the NFL.

Garner will be missed, but his departure affords Grantham the opportunity to own the composition of the defensive staff. Georgia’s 2013 line will be relatively inexperienced and thin (depending on draft decisions), and they’ll be looking to build depth quickly. The Dawgs will need a capable technician able to step in and build on the standard set for Georgia defensive linemen, and they’ll also need a strong recruiter to replace what they’re losing in Garner. Hopefully such a man exists in Grantham’s contacts list.


Post Hoops update: post-exams edition

Tuesday December 18, 2012

Georgia’s mens and womens programs emerged from the first games after exams headed in opposite directions. There are just a couple of weeks until conference play begins, but we’ve already learned quite a bit about the squads so far.

The men missed a golden opportunity for a decent win over an Iona team that made the NCAA Tournament field a year ago. Georgia overcame a slow start and took several second half leads, but the Dawgs surrendered 12 three-pointers to the visiting Gaels and had a team-wide collapse at the free throw line. The overtime loss was Georgia’s third in a row and the seventh in the last eight games. Yes, it’s to the point of starting to ask some unpleasant questions.

The Iona loss masked some positive developments. The offense was more productive as the team was able to work the ball inside and find guys like Donte Williams (16 points). The Dawgs shot 44% which is still an improvement over the season average of just under 40%. Even more promising was the continued development of a decent freshmen class. Morris continues to earn playing time, and Mann had his best game yet.

Unfortunately, leaning on the freshmen so much implies something about the upperclassmen. Georgia was able to lean on a pair of veteran guards (and the freshman Caldwell-Pope) to somewhat compensate for an absent frontcourt last season. While the frontcourt has made marginal strides this year, the drop-off in the backcourt has been precipitous. You’re just not getting production from senior guards Brantley and Williams. The freshmen are fine, but they’re not going to have an impact like Caldwell-Pope had a year ago. Even with KCP you take the good with the bad – he’s a gifted scorer, but you want your best player to make better decisions than the rushed, off-balance shot he attempted with no shot clock and 20 seconds left at the end of regulation on Saturday.

The backcourt isn’t the only spot where there’s a vacuum in production from veteran players. Marcus Thornton is banged up again, but he hadn’t posted more than 8 points in any of the first eight games. More importantly, the fall in production of Djurisic has been significant. Nemi’s big enough to bang around the basket, but he’s only getting to the line just over two times per game. We know he prefers to face the basket, but his three-point percentage has been cut in half from 36.4% a year ago to 18.5% this season. He continues to be in love with the outside shot though and has already attempted half as many three-pointers as he did as a freshman.

In short, it’s a mess. The good news? Have you seen the rest of the SEC?

In a more pleasant development, the women built on their unblemished record over the weekend with a 93-42 thrashing of Lipscomb. Georgia’s defense was relentless, and 23 steals led to numerous transition chances that helped Georgia shoot over 50%. The Lady Dogs are now 11-0 and sit just outside the top 5. Andy Landers has a luxury he hasn’t had much of in the past ten years: quality depth. There’s a strong core of upperclassmen and a very talented group of freshmen and sophomores. Landers has been able to work the newcomers in quite a bit, and they’ve responded. After several seasons of running players like Houts and James for 35-40 minutes per game out of necessity, Georgia can now run in waves of players in roughly 5-minute intervals. They’re able to play much more of the pressure defense Landers prefers, and the results have been promising so far. The team will still rely on its seniors – especially James, Armstrong, and Hassell – but the depth will help make sure that the team can finish the season with lots in the tank.

If there’s any uncertainty, it’s that Landers’ squad hasn’t been tested with top-quality competition yet. Rutgers and Georgia Tech were good opponents, and New Mexico’s Pit is traditionally a tough place in which to win. Though Georgia’s next two opponents aren’t ranked, TCU and Illinois still represent a step up in quality from the Mercers and Lipscombs of the world. They’ll give Georgia a chance to test their road chops before league play begins in January. Georgia’s last trip to TCU two years ago was a near-disaster, and Anne Marie Armstrong had to sink an ultra-long range three pointer at the buzzer for the team to escape with a win. This Georgia team is in a much better place and should arrive at the January 3rd SEC home opener against Missouri with their perfect record intact.


Post 10 biggest moments of the 2012 regular season

Monday December 17, 2012

There’s still one big game to go, but we have some down time to look back at some of the most important moments of the regular season. These plays didn’t all come at critical times (like a Gurley touchdown late in a rout of Vanderbilt), but they all were significant moments in the story of the 2012 regular season either for individuals or the team.

10. Samuel stuffs the fake punt. Georgia had scored just before the end of the third quarter to take a 24-20 lead on Missouri. It was Georgia’s first lead of the game, and it came during a stretch where both teams posted points on four consecutive drives. The fact that neither team was doing much to stop the other had to weigh on Missouri coach Gary Pinkel’s mind, because he called for a fake punt on 4th-and-11 from his own 35. The play actually had a good chance of success and was blocked well, but Richard Samuel was able to shed his blocker and stop the punter short of the first down marker. The Dawgs added a field goal on their next possession and set the stage for Jarvis Jones’ heroics.

9. Grown-man Jarvis. Samuel’s play on the fake punt stopped any momentum Missouri had, but Georgia was still only up 7 on a team that had showed an ability to score quickly. The two teams traded punts midway through the fourth quarter, and Georgia pinned the hosts back on their own 12. A pass interference penalty seemed to bail the Tigers out of trouble and gave them a first down. Jarvis Jones dropped back into coverage on the next play and sat in the underneath passing lane. James Franklin threw right at him, and Jones picked off the pass. He returned it just short of the goal line, and the Dawgs were able to score and open up a 14-point lead. Jones wasn’t finished – he came on a speed rush during Missouri’s next drive and forced a fumble. The Dawgs recovered inside the Missouri 10, and they added another score for a much more comfortable final margin.

8. Norman recovers the onside kick. Even with a bye week, Georgia wasn’t able to shake off the blues of the South Carolina loss. They found themselves in an early hole at woeful Kentucky. It was the kind of night where Marshall Morgan had to bank in a short field goal off the upright just to give Georgia a thin 16-14 halftime lead. Georgia didn’t establish a multiple-possession lead until the fourth quarter, and they needed a roughing the punter call to sustain that drive. Even after the Dawgs went up 29-17, they couldn’t put the upset-minded hosts away. Kentucky put together a scoring drive to pull within five with four minutes left. Georgia’s defense had few answers at that point, and you had that sense of dread about what would happen if Kentucky got the ball back trailing by less than a touchdown. The Wildcats attempted an onside kick, and it was executed fairly well. Kentucky’s blockers controlled the first line of Georgia’s return team, and the Wildcat kicker had a good chance at diving on the ball. The dribbled kick took just a little too long to advance the required ten yards, and the Kentucky kicker had to wait for it to roll. That delay gave Connor Norman an opportunity to sprint in from the side of the play and pounce on the ball right before the Wildcat kicker curled around it. Georgia’s offense was able to get a few first downs and kill enough clock to keep the ball away from Kentucky until the waning seconds, and the Dawgs escaped Lexington.

7. 3rd and 25. Ole Miss had been playing well and were on a little roll after posting their first SEC wins in several seasons. A Homecoming loss would cost the Dawgs everything they had earned in Jacksonville. Georgia’s offense was sluggish in the first half with the only score coming on the hidden ball play. Ole Miss looked in position to take a lead into halftime – especially as Georgia wasted time and lost yards on sacks during their final drive of the half. Instead of a likely field goal opportunity, Georgia was faced with a desperate 3rd-and-25 from the Ole Miss 40. Somehow Tavarres King got behind the Rebel secondary, and Aaron Murray threw his best pass of the half for a touchdown. Georgia rode the momentum to a second half rout.

6. Tough enough. After some poor performances and after a week dealing with the whole “soft” challenge and controversy, Georgia was determined to show something different in Jacksonville. The Bulldog defense took the field first and immediately brought pressure against the Gator offense. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was hit and fumbled on the game’s first play from scrimmage. He recovered the fumble, but Georgia kept up the pressure. Damian Swann came on a blitz from the slot on third down and again separated Driskel from the ball. This time Jarvis Jones was able to recover the ball for Georgia, and the Dawgs were set up early on the Florida 20. Todd Gurley took it in a few plays later, and Georgia had served notice that they were ready for a brutally physical game.

5. Gurley plows through Vanderbilt. We were introduced to Todd Gurley during the season opener when he followed up a powerful touchdown run with a kickoff returned all the way. But Buffalo was one thing, and Gurley was held to just 65 yards in the SEC opener. His next big showcase came in the SEC home opener. Gurley and Keith Marshall combined for 212 yards and four touchdowns. Late in the third quarter, Gurley topped off the scoring with this run. He took a handoff out of the pistol, got up a head of steam through a nice hole, and shed four would-be tacklers on the way to the endzone. Gurley had more significant runs than this late score in a blowout win, but few of them showed off his combination of power and speed like this one.

4. Rambo takes the ball. It’s likely that Georgia Tech wasn’t going to do much to stop the Georgia offense, but that was the case in 2008 also. Tech had put up a basketball score a few weeks earlier against UNC, and they were used to having to compensate for poor defense. Georgia scored immediately, but Tech began their own march towards a score. The Jackets put together a 10-play drive that set them up on the Georgia 20. Tech back Robert Godhigh ripped off another run that took the ball inside the Georgia 10. With a host of Georgia defenders slowing Godhigh’s progress, Bacarri Rambo was able to go for the ball. Rambo wrested the ball away and took off down the south sideline before he was forced out around midfield. The Dawgs scored for the second time just a few plays later, and Tech didn’t come close to the endzone again until the fourth quarter.

3. Commings sends Tennessee packing. Georgia’s defense hadn’t done much to stop Tennessee since the second quarter. The Dawgs had to protect a single-score 51-44 lead for much of the fourth quarter. Sanders Commings had spent much of September at safety as he covered for the suspended Rambo, and this was his first game back at cornerback full-time. Georgia turned the Vols over on three consecutive possessions to secure the narrow win, and Commings was responsible for two of those turnovers. The Dawgs avoided the upset and preserved their undefeated record – for another week, anyway.

2. Mitchell breaks open the WLOCP. Though Aaron Murray had struggled for most of the Florida game, Georgia’s coaches turned to the passing game clinging to a one-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. The drive started slowly and needed a defensive holding penalty to move the chains. Murray then completed four of his next five passes. A short second down pass to Malcolm Mitchell had to be reviewed, but it set Georgia up with a manageable 3rd-and-5 in Florida territory. Florida showed tight coverage, and Murray was able to find Mitchell again. A move back to the inside got Mitchell clear of his defender, and Florida’s tighter coverage meant that Mitchell suddenly found himself with a lot of green in front of him. He took off towards the north endzone, evaded a couple of desperate attempts to catch him, and gave Georgia and 8-point lead.

1. Jones thwarts the Gators. We started this list with a Jarvis Jones play that gave Georgia a touchdown, and we end it with a Jones play that prevented an opponent’s touchdown. Mitchell’s score gave Georgia a larger lead over Florida, but the Gators were still within one possession of a tie game. They began to find success mixing the run with passes to tight end Jordan Reed, who was creating matchup problems against Georgia’s linebackers. Just inside the Georgia 20, Reed caught a short pass and broke free of Alec Ogletree. Like Mitchell on his scoring play, Reed’s evasion of the initial tackle opened up a path for a score. Georgia’s defenders gave chase, but it looked as if Florida would have the ball inside the five at worst if Reed didn’t score. Branden Smith came in from the side and dove at Reed, forcing the Florida receiver to jump. Jarvis Jones had started rushing the passer but turned as soon as it became clear that he couldn’t get to the quarterback in time. He began pursuing Reed. The slight delay caused as Reed jumped to hurdle Smith gave Jones a chance to catch up with the receiver, and Jones punched the ball free into the endzone. Sanders Commings dove on the loose ball, and the Dawgs were able to run out the clock to secure the win and claim the inside track to a consecutive SEC East championship. Even more, it meant Georgia’s first back-to-back wins over the Gators in over two decades.

Do you have a few different moments in mind? A different order? Let’s hear them in the comments.


Post “You get better location and cheaper prices buying over the Internet.”

Friday December 14, 2012

Nebraska AD Tom Osborne states the obvious in a story about ticket sales for the Capital One Bowl.

Georgia’s doing reasonably well, selling 10,000 of its 12,500 allotment so far for the January 1st game. Nebraska has only sold 4,000. There are several reasons for their slow sales: Nebraska isn’t around the corner, the economy isn’t all that hot, the Huskers played in this same bowl last year, and did you see their last game?

Osborne identifies another “problem,” at least from the perspective of the school.

“The problem is so many people buy tickets now from the secondary market,” Osborne said. “People sometimes feel like you get better location and cheaper prices buying over the Internet. It’s really difficult anymore to assess how many fans you’re really going to have in that stadium.”

He estimates that as many as half of his school’s fans in Orlando last year didn’t buy tickets through the school. Teams are often held accountable for the unsold portion of their allotment, so it’s in their interests to sell as many tickets as possible. But fans know they can get better seats at a discount elsewhere. Fans don’t want to see their school take a hit, but they’re only loyal to a point.


Post Bama’s Dial won’t be suspended…and that’s OK

Friday December 14, 2012

The SEC announced today that “Alabama defensive end Quinton Dial won’t be suspended for his disputed hit on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray in the SEC title game on Dec. 1.”

I’m not exactly sure what a “disputed hit” is. There was nothing disputed about the excessive shot Dial put on Murray. SEC coordinator of officials Steve Shaw admitted that “we missed the call.” There’s no question that the hit broke the NCAA rule that “No player shall target and initiate contact to the head or neck area of a defenseless opponent.” The SEC didn’t say today that the hit was clean and legal; they just ruled that it didn’t merit a suspension.

A suspension isn’t a do-over. I know a lot of Georgia fans feel that no suspension means that Dial got away with the hit…and he did, then and now. Review by the league office isn’t a way to make up for penalties that should have been called. If that were the case, half the conference would have been suspended by the league office at one time or another. If Dial’s hit were flagrant enough to merit a suspension – penalty or not – then the league should have taken action. I’m not so sure it wasn’t anything beyond your garden variety cheap shot though. Georgia was flagged for an unnecessary roughness penalty against Alabama’s quarterback during the game, and Alec Ogletree won’t be suspended either.

We can debate whether the hit on Murray rose to the level of the hits that got Trae Elston and D.J. Swearinger suspended earlier in the year. The consistency in judgement calls like this is a whole other topic.

The league also said that “all subsequent action will be handled internally by the two institutions,” meaning that the likelihood of Dial missing the BCS Championship game is zero.


Post Heisman by default

Tuesday December 11, 2012

We talk a lot about narrative and its role in everything from the presentation to the discussion of sports. The steady drumbeat of a story creates its own momentum. While Johnny Manziel’s Heisman win on Saturday was hardly dramatic, his candidacy was noteworthy for being a relatively recent development. As recently as mid-October, when A&M was struggling to beat Louisiana Tech and Ole Miss and went dormant in the second half against LSU, Manziel was the walking definition of a novelty – an entertaining new quarterback in a new system whose coach was at a new school in its first season in a new conference.

It might be argued that Manziel won the Heisman in three games. That’s not true of course; he emerged as a special player from the opening week in a near-upset of Florida. But it did only take three games to turn novelty to narrative.

I remember driving back from Jacksonville to the beach listening to A&M-Auburn. Texts, calls, and tweets were flying as people marveled at the complete destruction going on at Jordan-Hare. It was 42-7 by halftime. We knew Auburn was bad, but this was the SEC’s version of the Oregon-Colorado score we were tracking during the WLOCP. The actual score soon took backseat to the image of an 85,000-seat stadium that had all but emptied early in the third quarter. Manziel’s five touchdowns got the buzz going again after A&M’s first laugher in a month after three nail-biters.

Beating up on Auburn and Arkansas was one thing, but the following week gave A&M a challenge they hadn’t done well with: beat a ranked team. Mississippi State was still in the top 20 after coming back to earth against Alabama. As we waited for a 3:30 Homecoming kickoff, it didn’t take long to see that 1) Mississippi State was still over-rated and 2) Manziel and A&M were on to something. For the second straight week, they had beaten and demoralized an SEC West opponent by halftime.

Suddenly the “A&M will give Alabama as much trouble as LSU” talk had some teeth. But even then the quarterback getting much of a Heisman push was McCarron. Alabama’s dramatic prime-time win at LSU was as big of a moment as there had been in college football in 2012, and McCarron was flawless on the game-winning drive.

Big performances in big games can win a player the Heisman. That’s nothing new. Often that turning point can even be a single play – like Cam Newton’s run against LSU in 2010 or Desmond Howard’s punt return against Ohio State. If you had to point to a single play that flipped the 2012 race, it was the early touchdown pass where Manziel was pressured, escaped, ran into his own guy, fumbled, caught the fumble in the air, and found a wide-open receiver in the endzone.

Between the A&M win an multiple interceptions by McCarron, the door had been opened for Manziel. That seemed to be the story of the season – one by one, players who seemed like reasonable Heisman candidates found it impossible to get traction and fell away. The emergence of Manziel and A&M that took place from the last week in October was perfectly-timed to fill this void, and all it needed to go over the top was knocking off the nation’s #1 team.

If you go to most any preseason Heisman list, you’ll find names like:

  • Matt Barkley (Southern Cal): Started the year as the Heisman frontrunner and leader of the preseason #1 team. Yikes.
  • Tyrann Mathieu (LSU): Remember him?
  • Geno Smith (West Virginia): He was the frontrunner after September, and it wasn’t even close. Then he went to Lubbock.
  • Denard Robinson (Michigan): Robinson was an electrifying player who didn’t quite fit in his offense, but he could have been a career-achievement type of winner with a strong season. His awful line vs. Alabama eliminated him in week 1.
  • Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina): I don’t know if he was having a Heisman-type season before his injury, but he would have likely stolen some votes from Manziel in the South and mid-Atlantic and made the overall tally much more interesting.
  • Landry Jones (Oklahoma): Like McCarron and A&M, Jones lost his shot when he faltered against Klein and Kansas St.
  • Tyler Wilson (Arkansas): His chances were pretty much finished when Petrino flamed out. Like Barkley, coming back for that senior year didn’t quite turn out as expected. Wilson’s production was down only slightly, but his interceptions soared.
  • Montee Ball (Wisc): Ball finished fourth last year and was the returning player with the most 2011 votes. Three September games with less than 100 yards took him out of the running early.

What the 2007 season was to the BCS, the 2012 season was to the Heisman. As the preseason and early-season favorites stumbled time and again, a freshman and a defensive player stood out as fairly consistent outstanding players. Manziel deserves his award. He was the best player left standing, and his performances were exciting to watch while having a real impact on the outcome of the 2012 season. Just as the circumstances that put a two-loss team through in 2007 don’t come around very often, the circumstances that led to this season’s finalists are fairly rare. There was no George Rogers to his Herschel Walker. It’s to a freshman’s credit that he was ready to make the most of the opportunity.


Post No regrets

Sunday December 2, 2012

There will be plenty of time to take a longer look at the game – if we can bring ourselves to re-live that. Even in a loss, it was one of the best efforts I’ve ever seen from a Georgia team, and everyone involved has nothing to apologize for. Especially this guy:

Chris Conley will do many big things over the next two seasons, and no one faults him for doing what every receiver has trained his life to do – catch a pass. Georgia played their tails off in a man’s game, and it was probably the best “big game” on a national level since the Texas-USC 2006 Rose Bowl. Damn.

And a big thanks to the students and fans who gave this team the reception they deserved back in Athens.


Post SEC Championship: Might as well win the damn thing

Saturday December 1, 2012

If you’re thinking clearly on a morning like this, hats off to you. I can’t do more than snag a couple of the million random things zipping around my head the past few days.

  • I just hope they show up. I hate going into such a big game with that negative thought in the back of my head, but I imagine that a lot of Bulldog fans have had that thought pop up this week. Was the Florida game a one-time emotional response, or has this team figured out how to play ranked opponents in big showcase games? If they have, we can buckle in for a competitive game. Their play over the last month leads me to think (hope?) that it’s a different team, but they still have a lot to prove, especially to themselves.
  • Make sure strengths are strengths. We started the season assuming that a strong defense was a given. It wasn’t and still isn’t a given. The defense discovered that performing as a unit at a top level requires the effort, attitude, and commitment we’ve seen down the stretch. Georgia needs its strengths to show up in order to have a chance. That includes strengths at the macro level – defense – and also at the individual level. Murray must look like one of the nation’s most efficient passers. Jones and Ogletree must look like elite linebackers. Gurley must find a way to create tough yards against a good defense. Good performances in areas of strength will elevate the rest of the team.
  • Cash in on opportunities. We remember how close Georgia came to a big lead against LSU last year, and we also remember how quickly things turned once those opportunities went away with only 10 points to show. You won’t get many chances against a good team like Alabama, and you have to make them count. Passes have to be caught, placekicks have to be made, fumbles have to be recovered, and catchable interceptions have to be secured. It’s not about an impossible requirement of being perfect for the entire game. It’s about executing at exactly the biggest moments. When Richt’s Georgia team throttled Saban’s LSU squad in Athens in 2004, David Greene was only 10-of-19 for 172 yards. But 5 of his 10 completions were for touchdowns. Make the big plays when they present themselves. The Dawgs were wonderful at capitalizing on short fields last week, but this is a different challenge.
  • Conversely, Georgia has to make Alabama work. Of course that means avoiding turnovers, but special teams is also important here. Coverage units on both punts and kickoffs can’t allow long returns. Barber has been very good with his punts lately, and I wouldn’t mind Jamie Lindley continuing to put kicks through the endzone. The offense also has a role here – three-and-outs can be as costly in field position as a shanked punt or a midfield turnover.
  • Create opportunities. Sometimes in big games you have to make your own luck. We saw the onside kick against LSU last year. Richt’s two SEC championship game wins have both featured a pivotal blocked punt. Georgia’s attempts at trick plays this year have pretty much been a flop, and they always come with big risks. Will Georgia have something along these lines ready, and will they need it?
  • Watch the screen. There’s nothing like a well-executed screen to slow down and burn an aggressive defense. Right, LSU? Alabama loves to run them, and we’ll see them on all downs. Sniffing them out can lead to big losses and even turnovers. Forgetting about them will have you watching an Alabama player’s taillights.
  • Is this Murray’s McCarron moment? Heading into the national title game last year, there were still questions about AJ McCarron’s ability to shoulder the burden of leading the Alabama offense. The Tide were content to lean on Richardson and use the passing game conservatively. McCarron was turned loose in the BCS championship game and completed 23 of 34 attempts to lead a much more potent Alabama offense than they had showed in an earlier meeting with LSU. With Murray, it’s not so much a question of turning him loose and throwing 25-30 times. It’s more about rising to the occasion. His self-prescribed isolation this week shows that he recognizes the importance of the moment and his role in it. Will that recognition lead to a tight performance, or is he ready to shine in the biggest game of his career?
  • This one is for 2002 and 2007. Those great Bulldog teams came on strong at the end, but they never got the breaks they needed to rise above their flaws from earlier in the year. We’ll always wonder how it would have turned out if those teams had a chance to play for the national title. This team has that chance. What will they do with it?

Our team, our time, no regrets. As we prepare for another game, let all the Bulldog faithful rally behind the men who now wear the red and black with two words — two simple words which express the sentiments of the entire Bulldog nation: Go Dawgs!


Post SEC Championship: Confidence

Thursday November 29, 2012

The first job when facing a dominant and elite opponent like Alabama is to not lose the game before it starts. It’s easy for lesser teams to be intimidated and awed, and Alabama is very good at making those teams pay by building large leads before the opponent is able to compose itself. We saw that ourselves in 2008.

A year ago LSU came into the SEC Championship with a great deal of mystique around their team. It’s not just that they were undefeated and had a great defense. After they won in Tuscaloosa, they carried a sense of inevitability. You might get them in a close game thanks to a weak LSU passing game, but it was only a matter of time until Mathieu made a play or a punt return to secure the win. Georgia, to their credit, came out on the attack and wasn’t scared or intimidated; to the contrary, they were the aggressor. As soon as Mathieu returned a first half punt for a touchdown, LSU began to turn the game. The Georgia defense held out as long as it could, but Georgia’s mistakes and turnovers began to pile up.

Once they toppled LSU in last season’s rematch, Alabama carried the same mantle of invincibility into this year. Despite losing much of a stellar defense and one of the best tailbacks in the nation, the Tide roared through the first two months of the season. They were so dominant that they were “boring”, and it was a better use of time to compare them against NFL teams rather than upcoming opponents.

A lot has happened over the past month. Once again, LSU plays a large role in the story. The Tide had LSU down 14-3 at halftime, and it looked as if Alabama was well on its way to another easy win. We know how that game turned out, and the nation saw Mettenberger look like Peyton Manning for a while. Texas A&M continued to chip away at Alabama’s invincibility and left Tuscaloosa with the win. The Tide are still an excellent team, but the aura of invincibility is gone. Is it Tyson-after-Douglas gone? We’ll find out Saturday.

So I’m not surprised to see Mark Richt let his players jaw a little this week. Alabama should be respected but not feared or cowered to. I love the mutual respect and appreciation for each team’s style of football. Each defense thinks it’s better, and they’ll get a chance to prove it.

There’s no doubt that Georgia is the big underdog and should be, and they’ll have to execute better and cleaner than they have all year in order to have a shot. But Georgia seems to be in good shape getting through the first challenge of the game: they’ll come in confident and believing they can win. Will that last after a physical Alabama team hits back?


Post In praise of the SEC’s coaches

Thursday November 29, 2012

The story around the SEC this week is the three high-profile programs (plus Auburn) looking for a new coach. The stories of the collapses at Arkansas, Tennessee, and Auburn – as well as Kentucky’s backslide from modest success with Rich Brooks – have all meant much enjoyable drama and schadenfreude for the rest of the conference. A conference is only as good as its coaches though. As spectacular as some of those flameouts were, it’s really been a good year for coaching in the SEC. There are at least seven if not eight of the remaining ten coaches who have left smiles on the faces of their fans after the regular season. This isn’t really a “best coaches” list…this is how I’d stack them up in a “coach of the year” poll for this season. There were a lot of tough calls.

  • Sumlin (Texas A&M): First-year coach, first-year QB, and no one in the nation wants to touch this team right now. Expectations will be sky-high next year, and he’ll have a hot product to sell on the recruiting trail. We’ll see if Sumlin can continue to evolve as he manages those expectations and attempts to bring the defense up to SEC standards.
  • Saban (Alabama): Like his “boring” team, it’s tempting to overlook what Saban does every year and talk about other coaches first. Alabama lost most of a defense plus the amazing Trent Richardson to the NFL, and they’re in a position to repeat as national champs. Successful coaching is about program management as much as it is game management, and few do the former as well as Saban.
  • Franklin (Vanderbilt): Vandy has improved on the field, but – like Saban – the program management really makes Franklin stand out. He had an enormous challenge of low expectations to overcome, and he followed up a nice debut with a solid eight wins and very competitive home losses to South Carolina and Florida. With head-turning success in recruiting, he should be able to continue to back up his bombastic ambitions for the program.
  • Richt (Georgia): The “lost control” and hot-seat memes that are punchlines now were no joke after the 2010 season. Richt now has consecutive division titles, and his transformation of several areas of the program from S&C to defense have the Dawgs on the cusp of a national title game appearance. He, along with his players, were able to hold the team and season together after a loss so complete that it could’ve easily undone the gains made over the past two seasons, but we have to hold the coach responsible for a team that failed to show up in such a big game. The Dawgs enter the postseason playing as well as anyone in the nation on both sides of the ball and have earned another shot at their goals. Will Richt’s team be better prepared for a Gameday showcase the second time around?
  • Spurrier (South Carolina): Spurrier’s scheme and playcalling need no discussion, but South Carolina’s ability to plug the next guy in has been one of the underrated stories of the past two seasons. In the season opener it looked as if the Gamecocks were adrift without Connor Shaw. By the end of the year, the Gamecocks could go to Clemson without Shaw or Lattimore and play as if that were the plan all along. Despite injuries at two critical positions on offense and despite some big departures from 2011, Spurrier put together another impressive 10-2 season.
  • Muschamp (Florida): You’d think that a 1-loss coach would rate higher, but Florida has walked the edge a little too much in 2012. The defense has been excellent, but the offensive transformation has been slow to come about. At least they’ve had the sense to lean on the strengths of their players on offense, and that alone is an improvement. It’s to Muschamp’s credit that nearly all of those close games have gone his way, but there’s still work to do.
  • Miles (LSU): Yes, Miles has built a program good enough to contend for the BCS despite the circus around Mathieu and continued questions at quarterback. The Tigers have very quality wins over A&M and South Carolina, and they nearly clamed Bama’s scalp. A program with a goal of national titles just can’t continue to be deficient at such a key position. Miles’ quirkiness and must-see press conferences are great fun, but they’re not great coaching.
  • Freeze (Ole Miss): A very impressive debut effort. The program was in such a state that it was enough just to post an SEC win, but Freeze and his offense delivered a .500 season and a bowl bid. A dominant win in the Egg Bowl was a significant bonus and gives Freeze a huge amount of legitimacy in the state. The same questions apply for Freeze as for Sumlin: with such a successful debut, expectations will adjust for Year 2. Can he manage them?
  • Mullen (Miss. St.): Some programs should be very careful about rolling their eyes at 8 wins. Yes, the 7-0 start was fool’s gold. The question now is whether Mullen has reached his ceiling at MSU or if anyone could do more there.
  • Pinkel (Missouri): Pinkel has produced some excellent teams over the years, but this one was overmatched for its debut campaign in the SEC. It was a bad enough season that rumors circulated about his departure, but he seems to have weathered the bloodletting of the past few days. He’ll be charged with building his program’s talent and depth up to competitive levels, and he’ll need the school’s commitment to match his effort.

Post The impact of the new kickoff rules

Tuesday November 20, 2012

The folks over at the reddit CFB community have done some legwork on a topic I’ve been obsessing over interested in all season. Have the new kickoff rules changed the thinking about how teams approach both the kick and the return?

Click through for the details, but here’s the summary:

  • As you’d expect, touchbacks are much more frequent this year.
  • Returns starting from the endzone only get to the 25 or better less than a third of the time. (Georgia’s experience shows even smaller odds.)
  • If you try to land the ball at the 1 and force a return, the gain in field position is negligible and you slightly increase the chances of the opponent getting a return past the 25.

Kickoffs originated from the 35-yard line prior to 2007 (as they do now), but the touchback rate is still a good bit higher now (36% now versus 31% in 2005). Can touchbacks coming out to the 25-yard line account for the difference?. If the average return out of the endzone before 2007 was close to the current 23.9 yards, then a return made sense under the pre-2007 rules: you gained a few yards of field position, on average, on each return from the endzone since a touchback only came out to the 20. Now with touchbacks coming out to the 25, that same return results in an average loss of a yard or so of field position.

Some additional good observations from the comments: only 5% of returns from the endzone result in big returns to at least a team’s own 45. On the other hand, over 40% of returns from the endzone don’t even make it to a team’s own 20. That large risk for relatively little reward likely plays into a team’s approach to returns even more than the average starting position.

There’s also a thought about injuries: one of the driving reasons behind these rules changes was the intent to reduce the injury rate on one of the most dangerous plays in a game. I haven’t seen any data about injuries on kick returns, but (going way off the scientific path here) I don’t recall many from the games I’ve watched. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been concussions and other injuries where a guy isn’t helped off the field – I just haven’t seen them. That’s no basis from which to draw any kind of conclusion, but we just don’t have the data yet one way or the other.


Post Georgia 38 – Auburn 0: By the book

Tuesday November 13, 2012

I blame Munson. We spent all week coming up with reasons how the Auburn game could go wrong – Georgia always plays down to their competition. It’s a rivalry game, so you can throw out the records. Auburn has 457 player from the state of Georgia, so they’ll play us better than they’ve played anyone all year. Remember what happened in 19 aught 7. Every time we’d see a pundit take this outcome for granted, we’d shake our heads and remind ourselves that they just don’t understand Georgia football or this series.

So the big news from Auburn Saturday night is that things went…exactly to plan. Auburn really isn’t all that good. Georgia really can get out in front of and put away a weaker opponent. The defense really is on to something. There wasn’t even the awkward start of the FAU or Ole Miss games to gripe about, and there wasn’t going to a repeat of the comedy of errors that let Tennessee back in the game. From start to finish, it just went as it would have if you had let your most delusional Disney Dawg buddy draw up the script. Shutout? Check. Gurshall going for 100+ each? Check. Murray in complete control? Yep. The Auburn stands empty by the fourth quarter? Can’t blame them.

Though Auburn’s season means that Georgia shouldn’t and won’t move the meter much by dispatching the Tigers, Georgia fans can at least appreciate a job well done. The win might’ve been all but a sure thing, but the plan and execution on both sides of the ball showed that the team approached and prepared for the game with the right focus and the goal of a divisional title in mind. On the night that the Dawgs claimed a championship, they looked like a champion.

With such a complete win, there’s not much to dig into. Just a few notes…

  • Welcome back, Gurshall. I was a little surprised to see that Marshall hadn’t had a carry for more than nine yards since the Tennessee game, but that explained why he had only run for a total 92 yards since. His third quarter 62-yard sprint put him back over the century mark and finished the scoring. But my favorite Marshall play came on the final drive of the first half: facing 3rd-and-20 after a sack, Marshall took a draw from the pistol and scurried for 21 yards to erase one of Auburn’s best defensive plays of the first half. I’m sure my section wasn’t the only one who had a few people referencing “third and Willie.”
  • No stat is going to be the factor in a game that lopsided, but third downs say it as well as anything else. As Georgia build their lead in the first half, they were 5-of-6 on third downs. Auburn was just 1-of-6 on third downs in the first half. The Dawgs were only able to build a quick lead because the defense just did manage a three-and-out on Auburn’s first possession. A conversion there wouldn’t have done much to change the outcome, but Mason coming up a few inches short gave Georgia the opportunity to take control early.
  • The receivers were challenged with the loss of two top contributors, but the unit stepped up at Auburn. King did #15 proud and had his best game since Kentucky – that touchdown catch was as good as it gets. Mitchell’s reputation is built on his athleticism, but his reliability is even more important. With a catch rate pushing 80%, Mitchell has become (or still is?) the guy you look to when you need a catch. I’m not surprised that Conley made some plays. Georgia’s other receivers didn’t record any catches, but this wasn’t going to be a pass-heavy game after Georgia established a lead.
  • Murray didn’t spread it around as much as he did against Ole Miss, but, again, there weren’t that many catches to be had. A third of receptions still went to tight ends and backs, and there would have been at least two more without drops by Lynch and Hicks. Rome now has five catches over the past two games after recording only two receptions in the first eight games. Murray again showed a willingness to use his speed and get yards on the ground. We like that, but you see Murray get hit hard (on a standard pass play) and head to the bench, and you remember why he doesn’t and shouldn’t leave the pocket much.
  • I’ve seen a bit of talk about leaving the defensive starters in so long. Yes, there’s the risk of injury, but that would be my only concern. If you have an opportunity for a shutout, I’m not going to complain about making a little extra effort to keep it going. But there’s a more important reason for leaving them in. If Georgia has a chance in the SEC championship game, it’s going to be a physical game every bit as demanding on the defense as the Florida game was. The defense needs to be conditioned to play at top form all four quarters, and it’s not helping them to sit. I expect we’ll see them play longer than we’d expect against Georgia Southern also. If you want to see an excellent defense not used to finishing games, look at Bama over the past two weeks.
  • I can’t end without acknowledging the special teams. Yes, the return game was pretty much neutral. The kicking was outstanding. Morgan wasn’t challenged by range, but his placement was perfect on all extra points and a tricky short field goal from an extreme angle. He’s been solid on extra points over the past three games, and we hope that’s a sign that his earlier adventures are behind him. Barber has just been great lately. He (and we should include Erickson with his spot-on pooch punt) was on his game at Auburn as any element of the team. Kickoff coverage was as good as it’s been all year. It was the best performance of the season for Georgia’s most maligned unit.