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Post 2021 SEC schedule released – hopefully for the last time

Friday January 29, 2021

With much fanfare, the SEC released its 2021 football schedule on Wednesday. We already knew the opponents, and just the dates were left to be filled in. Unfortunately the SEC is reverting to the eight-game conference slate, so this is a return to a fairly typical schedule and the previous SEC West rotation. After the scheduling chaos of last season, it has to be said that we’re still not out of the pandemic woods. We hope things are to a point where all games get played as scheduled, but a lot has to happen over the next six months. We can feel pretty certain about the SEC’s readiness, but playing a complete schedule depends on a stable enough situation that teams across the country, including FCS schools like Charleston Southern, can field and travel full squads. So here’s the schedule – as it is now:

Sept. 4: Clemson (Charlotte)
Sept. 11: vs. UAB
Sept. 18: vs. South Carolina
Sept. 25: at Vanderbilt
Oct. 2: vs. Arkansas
Oct. 9: at Auburn
Oct. 16: vs. Kentucky
Oct. 23: BYE
Oct. 30: Florida (Jacksonville)
Nov. 6: vs. Missouri
Nov. 13: at Tennessee
Nov. 20: vs. Charleston Southern
Nov. 27: at Georgia Tech

The opener against Clemson will be one of the bigger nonconference games in the nation in 2021. There will be no shortage of hype or analysis of that game, and it will set the tone for both programs. A win by either team arguably sets them up as a playoff favorite, and a loss means they’ll have to run the table. There will be plenty more to say over the next seven months.

What stands out about the rest of the schedule is how many new coaches Georgia will face. Six of Georgia’s eight SEC opponents will have first- or second-year head coaches. All three of Georgia’s SEC road games will be against first-year coaches. That doesn’t mean the games are gimmes – they’re still SEC road games, and while these coaches might be new at their current gig they’re not inexperienced nor new to big-time football.

It’s also glaring that the best games on the schedule are away from Athens. There are two neutral site games, and Auburn, Tennessee, and Tech are all on the road. It says a lot about the quality of the home schedule when the highlights are the return of Sam Pittman and Shane Beamer, the whole Muschamp storyline in week 3, and a possible trap game against a decent Missouri team. I’m doubtful that this year turns into 2017 when a lightweight home schedule became a little interesting. We’re in that home scheduling lull between Notre Dame in 2019 and some fun home-and-homes later this decade.

After Clemson, the biggest tests left on the schedule are anyone’s guess. At this point it looks as if Georgia will be favored in every game after the opener, but there’s often a team or two that surprises and becomes a much more difficult challenge than we expected. It’s tough to imagine South Carolina or Vanderbilt getting their acts together that early in the season. Tennessee might have some things figured out by November, but there’s so much to rebuild there. It’s possible that Bo Nix thrives under new management, and a trip to Auburn is rarely routine. Missouri was respectable with a first-year coach and QB, and they will be a popular pick to finish in the top half of the SEC East. Georgia won’t have much time to dwell on whatever happens in Jacksonville. Of course we underestimate Florida at our peril. They probably won’t be the team they were last season, but you can’t imagine Georgia being an SEC or national contender without winning that game.


Post Nature, nurture, and elite production

Friday January 15, 2021

As I watched Alabama dominate the 2020 college football season, what stuck with me was how consistently they got peak performance from their best players. What’s relevant to Georgia isn’t that Alabama had good players. Georgia does as well. It’s how Alabama was able to get Heisman-quality performance out of those players. Waddle, Smith, Harris, and Jones were all 4* and 5* Rivals prospects, but only Harris was a top 10 prospect. We shouldn’t be surprised that a highly-rated prospect became a future top draft pick, but how were so many able to do it at one place? Is there anything we can take from that to see if Georgia can do something similar with their own group of highly-rated skill players?

We know that the Georgia offense will be loaded with really good players. J.T. Daniels made an obvious impact and raised Georgia’s offensive SP+ ranking from around 40 to a final ranking of #21 in the span of four games. The tailback room will be five-deep with unique skill sets that will allow Georgia to do everything from pound between the tackles to exploit mismatches with receivers coming out of the backfield. Capable receivers emerged to make defenses pay for keying on George Pickens, and all of them will return plus Dominick Blaylock. The entire offensive line that started the Peach Bowl is back, and there is enough promising talent in the pipeline that any of those starters could be pushed.

All of that returning talent with a full (and hopefully somewhat-normal) offseason absorbing Todd Monken’s system should have us excited. But is this talent enough for UGA to be the next team whose offense becomes the talk of college football en route to the playoffs? We know that success is the combination of talent, player development, and scheme. Georgia addressed its deficient scheme after the 2019 season, and we saw some progress during the 2020 season even without the benefit of a typical offseason installation. It’s reasonable to expect continued progress with so many key pieces slated to return in 2021. Talent also deserves some scrutiny though.

When we look at the LSU and Alabama success stories, we see the union of modern pass-favoring schemes and great and even elite talent. We’ve seen the last two titles won by outrageously productive offenses that featured first-round talent at just about every position. The distinction between “great”, “elite”, and “really good” might seem like meaningless mush, but there is a difference. Does Georgia’s talent really stack up with those LSU and Alabama teams? Not many will match Alabama. There were three Heisman contenders with another injured midseason. Those skill players were aided by the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. LSU had a similar spread of talent. They had the Heisman winner at QB, a first-round pick at tailback and WR and another receiver who will be a 2021 first rounder. Three offensive linemen were drafted in the first four rounds with another two signing free agent deals.

None of Georgia returning offensive players for 2021 were named to the 2020 All-SEC teams. That doesn’t mean they stink; we know better than that. It also doesn’t mean they can’t make the leap during the offseason. You could make the case that J.T. Daniels is held in higher regard now than Joe Burrow was before his final season. You can argue that postseason honors are partially the product of system, team success, or reputation, but that’s a tougher argument with draft picks. And as much as we fans appreciate the notion of unfinished business for the returning players, we recognize that the expectation of a first or second round pick would have ended the business at Georgia for just about any player.

Being shut out of the All-SEC teams isn’t a sign of overrated talent or poor prospects for 2021. Georgia was also without a player on the 2016 postseason All-SEC teams. The following season – the second year in a new offensive system – produced multiple draft picks at tailback, receiver, and offensive line and a top 5 offense despite a true freshman at quarterback.

The expectations for the offense rise from a more general impatience: Georgia has recruited as well as just about anyone over the past four years, and we’re anxious to see the payoff. The talent level is enough to overwhelm most opponents and just about ensure a top 10 finish – something we shouldn’t take for granted. While we learned this season to appreciate the hard work that goes into even winning the division, the outlook for the program is still focused on SEC titles, playoff appearances, and the national title. If Georgia’s talent is what we claim it is, those objectives should be within reach.