We started the season wondering if 2019 would be the year in which Georgia finally solved its Alabama problem. We never got the chance to find out, and we’ll be able to recycle those stories for another offseason. But while we were waiting to measure ourselves against a team not on the schedule, LSU actually went out and solved their own Alabama problem. The combination of a reconstituted offensive scheme and the talent to run that scheme got the Tigers over the hump as SEC champions and into their first CFB playoff.

Georgia started the year with one problem. Now it has two.

LSU realized that its offense, plenty good enough to upset a good team like Georgia in 2018 and get to a New Year’s Six bowl, wasn’t making the most of its talent and wasn’t going to be enough to make LSU a national contender. They made changes, brought in outside help, and dramatically improved production with many of the same core players. They made the moves Georgia was supposed to make to get over the top. They’ll lose Burrow and some other pieces, but they’ve recruited well and have another top class coming in next year. Despite the predictable “is Alabama’s dynasty ending?” pieces after the Iron Bowl, the Tide will return a maturing defense and will welcome yet another loaded signing class. Neither of these programs will go away on their own.

Yes, of course Georgia needs to improve and open up the offense. Kirby Smart isn’t adverse to a productive and explosive offense and passing game; S&P+ ranked the offense #7 in 2017 and #3 in 2018. The emergence of LSU this season makes the need for change more urgent. Is Alabama still the target and the model? Certainly pre-2013 Alabama isn’t what we’re after, but both Alabama and LSU have transitioned to an offense that features its quarterback and a fleet of playmaking receivers. Even their tailbacks would be among Georgia’s top four receivers. If Georgia is able to stay atop the SEC East for another year, it will be interesting to see who will be waiting for them in next season’s championship game. The Alabama-LSU discussion will suck most of the air out of the preseason, but Georgia is going to have an important offseason making sure it can remain part of the conversation.

This year’s SEC championship game was decisive enough that it’s not worth breaking down. You sensed it wouldn’t be Georgia’s day when Burrow was able to catch his own deflected pass and turn it into a first down gain. Burrow, given ridiculous amounts of time by Georgia’s three-man rush, then found an open receiver in the endzone. This followed Georgia’s opening series on which an open receiver dropped a pass and another open receiver was missed. That possession ended on a shanked punt. So there you had it – Georgia’s offense, special teams, and even defense came up short the first time they stepped on the field, and it didn’t get much better.

One of the side effects of Georgia’s problems on offense is that they ended up in a lot of close games. While the Dawgs used a lot of players, especially on defense, in even the tightest of games, there weren’t many opportunities to do much of anything in those games but hold on and get the win. So when it came time to build a credible running game with D’Andre Swift severely limited, Georgia’s tailback depth became a mirage. Zamir White had a total of 17 regular season carries after the South Carolina game. James Cook had 12. On defense, Lewis Cine got his first start in the SEC Championship and figured to be a big part of the plan to defend LSU. He played wonderfully, and he’ll be a fixture in Georgia’s secondary for the next couple of seasons. But safety was a rare defensive position that didn’t see a lot of rotation during the season, and Cine didn’t see nearly the playing time that other freshmen like Travon Walker or Nakobe Dean.

That applies on a macro level too. It was welcome and probably even a good idea to open up passing the ball downfield. We’ve seen several of these concepts all season. It might have been better to break out a more open offense before the biggest game of the season though. James Coley was in a tough spot – the plan made sense, but the execution was lacking. The job of the coordinator isn’t just playcalling; it’s also preparation and crafting a scheme that plays to the strengths of the unit. Without Swift, Georgia’s biggest strength and identity – its large and talented offensive line – was neutered. The line generally blocked well in pass protection, but the inability to run the ball left an inconsistent Fromm throwing to a depleted receiving corps. The Dawgs were going to have to execute well and get touchdowns from its scoring opportunities, and that didn’t happen.

Georgia’s defensive plan was also new and made sense, but it, too, lacked execution. Rushing three and dropping extra defensive backs like Cine was modeled after Auburn’s successful approach to limit the LSU offense. It required one of two things though: either coverage has to be stout to limit explosive plays, or the front three must generate pressure on their own. Neither happened. Georgia had a productive and deep defensive front this season, but it doesn’t have someone like Derrick Brown who can consistently generate a push by himself. Given plenty of time, even as much as eight seconds on the first touchdown pass, even the best coverage will usually break down. Georgia eventually brought more pressure, but Burrow got himself out of enough tough spots to make devastating plays that put the game away in the second half.

Payment due

The Texas A&M game marked the end of a tough four-game stretch against some of the better defenses in the SEC. Over that span Georgia wrapped up their third straight SEC East title, closed out the decade with wins over their biggest rivals, and managed to defeat both regular season SEC West opponents for the first time under Kirby Smart. Three of Georgia’s four November SEC opponents were ranked, and two of them were ranked among the top 15.

When the 2019 schedule came out, most of us went right to the Notre Dame game. It didn’t take long though for eyes to wander down to the end of the schedule and notice what was in store for November. There were four SEC games in November, and the two most difficult would be away from home. Even the two home games weren’t gimmes: Missouri was a darkhorse in the SEC East, and Texas A&M would be tougher than its record against an impossible schedule indicated. I wrote after the A&M win that “Georgia was supposed to be tested by its November schedule, and even the harshest critic must admit that Georgia passed that test.”

The Dawgs might’ve passed that test and emerged from the regular season in playoff position, but like a student wiped out at the end of exams, there wasn’t much left in the tank. The season, and especially November, took its toll on the team. Lawrence Cager, the team’s leading and most reliable receiver, was lost for the year. D’Andre Swift was knocked out of the Tech game. Injuries to key players, not to mention the physical and mental toll of the grind itself, left Georgia in a suboptimal position for the postseason. The bill for a successful November came due just in time to face LSU. That’s no excuse – few teams are in prime condition after 12 games. But no one can say that the Dawgs were a team peaking and building towards a postseason run.

Never want to be the underdog

Underdogs and favorites are in those roles for a reason. Maybe it was rationalization, but how many of your friends and fellow fans did you hear leading up to the game relishing the underdog role? “No one is giving Georgia a chance – perfect!” Well, we saw why. Sure, sometimes teams can find a little extra motivation from being told they’re not the favorite – Alabama took exception when they were slight ‘dogs at Georgia in 2015. Upsets happen. More often than not, though, underdogs lose. I would hope we’re beyond that mentality now as a program and fan base. It’s two-faced: you can’t claim to aspire to be a playoff-quality team from year to year and at the same time shy away from the spotlight.

It’s especially silly given the tremendous respect for the Georgia program and brand that’s out there. Even after South Carolina, Georgia was the top-ranked one-loss team. Even after the beating at the hands of LSU, Georgia remained the top-ranked two-loss team and even gave the playoff committee something to think about against one-loss conference champion Oklahoma. Georgia was a touchdown underdog to LSU because the Tigers were that much better this year. That’s something we should aim to correct and reverse rather than embrace.

If you’ve read any SEC Championship preview this week, you know all about the matchup of Georgia’s defense against LSU’s offense. Two of the best units in the nation will go head-to-head, and it’s exciting to think about. Any time you face an offense as productive as LSU’s, it puts added pressure on your own offense. Even with an outstanding defense Georgia knows it will have to put points on the board at a higher clip than it has in a while. Execution must be crisper, and coaches must have the gameplan and playcalling down. As against Florida, the offense doesn’t just need to score points. An offense that is able to maintain possession, convert third downs, and convert scoring opportunities can help the defense by keeping LSU’s scoring threats on the bench.

The Bulldog offense will have to perform better than it did in Baton Rouge a year ago. LSU held Georgia to its lowest point total of the 2018 season, and even that total was inflated by a fairly meaningless score with six minutes to go. Georgia’s defense did what it could to keep the team in the game by holding LSU to field goal attempts, but even a 19-9 deficit after the third quarter seemed nearly hopeless because very little was working for Georgia’s explosive offense. What happened? You can start with turnovers – Georgia turned the ball over four times. Jake Fromm threw two interceptions, Mecole Hardman fumbled a kick return, and the less said about the fake field goal attempt, the better.

Beyond the turnovers, LSU was able to alter Georgia’s identity on offense. The Tigers limited Georgia to 113 rushing yards on 30 attempts – 3.8 yards per carry. 71 of those yards came on Georgia’s second possession which ended in the fake field goal attempt (I swear we’re done talking about that.) Georgia managed fewer than 50 yards rushing over the final three quarters of the game. Yes, much of that time was spent playing from behind, but even in the first half 11 of Georgia’s final 15 plays were passes. The 34 passes Jake Fromm attempted in the game were not just a regular season high; he didn’t attempt more than 24 passes in any other regular season game.

So did Georgia abandon the run, or did LSU do something to force Georgia out of their comfort zone? Kirby Smart thinks it was the latter. “We kind of stayed with (running the ball) the next drive. We went back to it. They changed some things up and it wasn’t working as well.”

LSU did indeed change some things up. Ed Orgeron explained that “the key adjustment involved changing up the defensive fronts, creating different angles, with (DC Dave) Aranda expertly mixing in different personnel to create problems for the Bulldogs.” Once LSU adjusted, Smart noticed that “We weren’t getting the same movement. They were making the ball bounce out.” It’s fair to ask if Georgia still went away from the run too quickly, but LSU’s adjustments along the defensive front didn’t only affect Georgia’s run; Fromm was sacked three times in the game.

This LSU defense isn’t that LSU defense. The 2018 Tigers finished 5th in defensive S&P+. The current unit is 22nd. That’s not bad at all, and they’ve been playing well lately, but it’s not the elite unit they enjoyed a year ago. It’s still an extremely talented group, and Dave Aranda is still calling the shots.

We know that Georgia isn’t going anywhere in the SEC Championship if its running game is stymied. LSU knows that too, and getting Georgia into long passing downs will be as important for LSU as it’s been for any Georgia opponent. Georgia could have some initial success on the ground even with its bread-and-butter plays, but we can expect Aranda to have a counter prepared. It’s not as simple as throwing bodies into the box to stop the run. As Aranda (and later Texas) showed, scheme and creative use of personnel can be just as effective against the larger Georgia offensive line.

Can Sam Pittman and the offensive staff have the line better prepared this time for LSU’s Plan B? We’ve seen the line struggle at times with various stunts and twists from opposing defensive fronts. That’s why those techniques are in the playbook – they work, and sometimes they even work against an elite offensive line. There’s no question that this is an opportunity for Georgia’s heralded offensive line to shine, and it’s a must if Georgia has a chance to stay in the game. But as we saw last year, it’s not just about the gameplan. It’s just as important to be able to adjust on the fly based on the counter-punches shown by the opponent.

We’ve got bigger fish to fry in less than a week, but a win over Tech, especially an historic one, deserves its moment in the sun. Georgia’s 52 points is the most scored in the rivalry, and it could have been worse. It was shaky for a while in the second quarter, but Georgia ended up cruising to an expected win. The Bulldogs finish the regular season 11-1 for the third consecutive season. To borrow a line from Les Miles and his 2007 LSU team, the Bulldogs were “undefeated in regulation” in 2019.

Georgia’s 52 points were a likely temporary sugar rush but also a nice change after failing to score over 30 since the Tennessee game. It was an opportunity against an overmatched defense to spread the ball around and try to find some productions and confidence heading into the postseason. Georgia racked up a fairly balanced 500 yards of total offense though no single ballcarrier had over 73 yards rushing and no single receiver had more than 52 yards. Neither team started strong on offense: Tech didn’t make a first down until the second quarter, and Georgia’s first three plays were incomplete passes. A deep pass down the sideline to Tyler Simmons got things going for Jake Fromm, and Georgia’s QB ended up with four touchdown passes. Once again, though, Fromm failed to complete at least 50% of his attempts.

All hail the defense

Despite the 45 points scored by the offense, Georgia’s defense again stole the show. They forced 13 punts, a record low point for a Georgia Tech offense. Without the short field after Georgia’s first turnover, this was a defensive effort worthy of another shutout. In fact, Bill Connelly gives Georgia Tech 7.6 points of turnover luck in this game.

Georgia’s most obvious advantage showed up when Tech ran plays laterally – screens, outside runs, and even some leftover option pitches. There seemed to be openings, but within a split second you saw a blurry #32 or #2 arrive into the area and shut the play down. Tech managed just 2.4 yards per play, and there were no explosive plays to be had. Tech had a 14% success rate in the game and a minuscule 8.7 yards per drive. Yes, it was light work for the nation’s best defense, but that’s what you want to see: guys still focused on doing their job and not making lazy mistakes against inferior competition.

Tech managed 99 yards rushing, and that was the most yards on the ground yielded by Georgia since the Kentucky game. Georgia’s opponents usually figured out that they weren’t going to have success running the ball and turned to the air. We pointed out last week that the defense faced around 40 pass attempts per game in November. Tech’s incomplete transition on offense still has traces of the vestigial passing game of the option offense, so even after Georgia took away the run Tech was just going to….run some more. The Jackets did pound out 99 yards, but those yards came on 37 carries for an inconsequential 2.7 yards per carry.

Team game

Georgia was able to put points on the board without earning a first down or completing a pass. Jake Camarda’s first punt pinned Tech back on their own 13. After another Tech three-and-out, Dominick Blaylock had one of his best punt returns of the season and brought the ball to the Tech 36. Georgia could manage only four yards on its next possession, but that was still well within Blankenship’s range. It wasn’t an ideal start for Georgia’s offense, but defense and special teams were able to pick up most of the load.

Things really started to happen when the offense began pulling its weight. The defense limiting Tech to less than 9 yards per drive gave Georgia a tremendous field position advantage, and the offense did well with it. There’s no better way to kick start an offense than to give it a shorter field, and Georgia’s average starting field position was its own 37.5 yard line. Georgia didn’t have to drive very far to create their 9 scoring opportunities – their average drive was only 35.7 yards, just slightly above the national average, but that was more than enough to average 5 points per scoring opportunity.

Make them quit

Wearing down the opponent has been Kirby Smart’s objective from the beginning. It hasn’t worked as well this year – rather than packing it in opponents have been able to mount late comebacks against Georgia. That wasn’t the case against Tech, but the second quarter was a frustrating study in throwing a rope to a drowning opponent. Georgia began to get things going on offense and piled up a 17-0 lead. Tech hadn’t managed a first down yet, and the Georgia defense forced another three-and-out. Georgia fumbled the ensuing punt, and Tech scored from 18 yards out. Tech then recovered an onside kick. Georgia’s defense held again, but Swift fumbled on the offense’s next possession. The Dawgs had carefully controlled field position en route to their 17-0 lead, but Tech started its next three possessions inside Georgia territory. The Jackets were a stone’s throw from making it a one-possession game late in the second quarter. Fortunately Georgia’s defense limited the damage, and Tech only got points from one of these possessions.

Watching Tech go into the locker room only down 17-7, you’d have thought they were leading. Yes, Tech’s staff was manufacturing any kind of fake juice they could come up with, but there wasn’t much question that the second quarter had soured things for Georgia. The Dawgs responded well out of the locker room and eventually did put the game away and frustrate the overmatched opponent. Still, though, after failing to capitalize on early opportunities against Texas A&M, another first half of missed opportunities that kept the opponent hanging around wasn’t the start that Georgia hoped for.

Enjoy the ride?

Georgia finished the regular season 11-1 and ranked fourth. The loss wasn’t what we expected, and the Dawgs were an overtime away from their first undefeated regular season in over 35 years. In terms of SP+, Georgia’s rated 5th – not far off their preseason projection of 3rd. SP+ also projected 9.9 wins for Georgia (6.2 in conference), so the Dawgs performed well against a difficult schedule.

The Dawgs are where we expected them to be: headed to Atlanta with everything still to play for. The Bulldogs finished the regular season in contention for SEC and national titles. When you get to this point, you’re up against similar teams where individual matchups and coaching decisions matter. Talent disparity, if there is any, is tiny. We saw against South Carolina that getting to this point isn’t a given birthright, and Georgia had to earn its division title and current national standing. There’s still no margin for error if Georgia wants to take the next step into the playoffs. The way in which Georgia got to its 11-1 record might have Georgia approaching the finish line in a beat-up car running on fumes, but they’re still very much in the race.