Containment

You haven’t heard this much about containment outside of Cold War foreign policy. Yes, setting the edge and avoiding last year’s staggering failure against the run is important. Georgia’s done fairly well over the past couple of games limiting a couple of capable tailbacks. Jalen Hurd was held to 80 yards, and Russell Hansbrough was a non-factor.

The issue then becomes Treon Harris. While Georgia was bottling up Hurd in Knoxville, Josh Dobbs ran for over 100 yards and accounted for over 400 yards of total offense. He did his damage on straight running plays but also bought himself time until receivers came open. Harris, while not as experienced or polished as Dobbs, is capable of similar production if Georgia pays too much attention to Kelvin Taylor.

Harris wasn’t asked to do much against Georgia last year, and why would he have been? His backs were doing just fine. Harris still ended up with 5 yards per carry on six rushing attempts. You’d expect him to be a little more involved this year in an improved Florida offense. With the running game struggling against LSU, Harris threw for 271 yards against a suspect Tiger secondary. He was aided by his receivers turning receptions into long gains: all six Florida players who caught a pass had at least one reception over 15 yards, and three players had a reception go for at least 30 yards.

Georgia received some good news along the defensive front this week – Jordan Jenkins, Chris Mayes, and John Atkins seem likely to return to action. Leonard Floyd turned it up at the end of the Missouri game and seems to be back home outside. The shoulder that limited Floyd at the end of 2014 was already a factor in the 2014 Florida game, but he’s in good health now. There’s quality depth too: Bellamy, DeLoach, and Bailey are veterans, and Trent Thompson seems to get better weekly.

The Florida offensive line is a bit of a miracle considering the shape they were in during the spring, but there still have been some issues with consistency. The line was a big part of their win over Ole Miss, but they’re near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. Early physical play from the Georgia defensive front, especially freshman Jordan Jenkins, set the tone for a hard-fought win in 2012. Georgia didn’t take advantage of a patchwork Tennessee offensive line, and there won’t be many bigger opportunities for redemption.

Scoreboard

While Georgia’s performance against the run cost them the game last year, it was the 9th time in 14 games that Georgia had scored 20 or fewer points in Jacksonville. The Dawgs are 4-1 against Florida under Richt when breaking 20 points and 1-8 when they don’t.

The Dawgs got out to a 7-0 lead last season and looked to be rolling, but they couldn’t extend the lead. A 3rd-and-2 Chubb rush at midfield was stuffed. Georgia then forced and recovered a fumble but missed a field goal. Florida took the momentum with their fake field goal and ripped off a quick 14 points. This was still a 14-7 game at halftime, but Georgia’s offense never got going again while the Gator rushing attack took over in the third quarter.

Meanwhile back in 2015, Georgia’s offense hasn’t contributed more than 17 points in a game since Southern a month ago. They’ve had a few weeks now to sort out the approach to the running game without Chubb. Michel was dinged up against Missouri but still ran fairly well and is healthier after a few days off last week. The Dawgs missed those explosive runs though, and hopefully Michel’s hip pointer was the difference. They’ll also have to do a better job of getting to the edge, whether with Michel or with receiver sweeps, and perimeter blocking needs to take a big step forward.

It’s anyone’s guess what we’ll see from the passing game. Not to harp on the midseason injury thing, but Reggie Davis hobbled off after the opening kickoff against Missouri and limited Georgia’s deep threat. Isaiah McKenzie should be back too, and we’ll see if he can contribute anything beyond special teams. Malcolm Mitchell could draw extra attention from Vernon Hargreaves, one of the best cornerbacks in the nation. Both teams have talented sets of tight ends, but Florida’s TEs have been far more productive.

It will be a significant challenge to break that 20-point barrier against this Florida defense. The Gators are top four in the SEC in both total defense and scoring defense. Their line, anchored by standout Jonathan Bullard, is third in sacks and will be a stiff test for a Georgia offensive line that has allowed only eight sacks this season.

Following a combined 7-of-31 conversion rate on third down against Alabama and Tennessee, Georgia made third down a focus in the week leading up to the Missouri game. The Dawgs were a much more respectable 9-of-19 in that game against a very good defense. Let’s have a look.

By quarter:

1Q 3-5
2Q 2-4
3Q 1-5
4Q 3-5

Georgia was at 50% or better in 3 of 4 quarters, but that third quarter should be no surprise to anyone who watched both teams sputter out of the locker room. Lambert was just 1-of-3 in the quarter with a sack, and the lone completion was a 2-yard pass to Michel when the Dawgs needed four yards. Things picked up after Missouri’s fumbled punt return; Georgia closed the game converting 4 of their final 7 opportunities including a couple of key fourth quarter conversions that moved them into position for the game-winning points.

Distance:

4 or less: 5-8
5-9: 4-9
10+: 0-2

As you might expect, Georgia converted at a higher rate closer to the first down marker. (That hasn’t always been the case this year.) If Georgia could get anything positive on first or second down, they moved the chains 9 out of 17 times.

Field Position:

Inside Missouri 20: 0-4
Inside Missouri 40: 3-4
Between the 40s: 4-7
Inside Georgia 40: 2-4

Now we’re getting somewhere. Georgia got most of their third down conversions between the 20s but got shut out in the red zone. That aside, the Dawgs moved the ball fairly well into good field position. That mattered as the second half wore on and it became obvious that points would be scarce. Georgia was only 2-for-4 on their own end of the field, but one of those failed conversions led to the fumbled punt.

Passing:

7-9 (5 converted), 64 yards, 7.11 YPA, long 16

That’s…not terrible? Georgia converted the first down on five of their nine passing attempts. (Add in two sacks though, and Georgia was 5-for-11 when Lambert intended to throw on third down.) Lambert continued to be unpredictable. His stats coming into the game indicated trouble between 4 and 9 yards to go, but that’s where he had most of his third down success against Missouri. He was just 2-for-17 at that distance coming into the game, but he was 6-for-8 with four conversions against the Tigers. Meanwhile the deep ball that worked well at Tennessee wasn’t a factor against Missouri. Reggie Davis injured himself on the opening kickoff, and that limited Georgia’s emerging deep threat.

Rushing:

Michel: 5 carries, 3 conversions, 16 yards
Douglas: 3 carries, 1 conversion, 4 yards
Lambert: 2 carries, 0 conversions, -12 yards, 2 sacks

Sony Michel was clearly Georgia’s most successful rushing option on third down, but even he was just over 3 yards per carry. If Douglas is now the power back (he also carried on Georgia’s failed fourth down attempt), there’s some work to be done. We never saw Marshall on third down, and Hicks was needed at fullback. Perhaps the return of Christian Payne makes Hicks more of an option now in those short-yardage situations.

All better, right?

Nearly 50% on third down is definitely an improvement, but facing 19 third downs tells you the kind of game Georgia played. Without many of the explosive plays produced by the offense earlier in the year, Georgia had to drive in small chunks, and that required stringing together more than 2 or 3 first downs. When those methodical drives stall inside the opponent’s 20 without any long runs or deep passes, you end up with four field goal attempts.

Should the offense be encouraged? Sure – they moved from under 25% in the previous two games to about 50% in this game against a respectable defense, and moving the chains beats the alternative. Under 4 yards per play on third down is nothing to celebrate though when the team’s average on all downs is over 6 yards per play. The conversion rate is a positive to build on, but there are still problems closer to the goal line against a more compact defense.

See the presumptive Bulldog quarterback of the future in action. Jacob Eason’s Lake Stevens HS will be on ESPNU this Friday evening against divisional rival Kamiak.

The game starts at 10 p.m. ET.

When the line for this game was announced last Sunday, I asked if “17” was the over/under rather than the point spread. It was only half in jest – Missouri’s strength on defense and weakness on offense have been pretty well established at this point in the season. We saw both of those tendencies hold on Saturday. Missouri’s offense sputtered even more than Georgia’s, and the Tiger defense was as stout as advertised.

But as good as the Missouri defense was, Georgia’s was better. You would hope that the defense would show up against one of the SEC’s weaker offenses, but we were just a week removed from allowing an anemic Tennessee passing game to look like Baylor. We have to take improvement when we can get it, and ensuring that a struggling offense continues to struggle represents improvement. It was one of the best performances of the season from the front seven, and enough plays were made in the secondary to prevent the few Missouri successes across the middle from building on each other.

As for the Bulldog offense – Georgia dominated time of possession, ran 82 plays to just 52 for Missouri, and had twice as many scoring opportunities. Following two weeks of dreadful third down performance, the offense converted at a much more respectable 47%. So why only nine points?

The most obvious answer is that the Dawgs failed to finish drives. The offense was far from shut down. We didn’t see nearly as many three-and-outs as in the past couple of weeks, so at the very least the offense was able to help the team with field position. Missouri’s average starting field position was on their own 28.8, nearly 8 yards worse than Georgia’s – and that includes Missouri’s short fields as a result of the interception and onside kick. Georgia’s four field goal attempts were from inside of 40 yards.

The other thing working against the offense was a lack of explosive plays. There was a mid-range pass that Godwin turned into a long gain, but that was about it. (And Georgia came away with nothing on that drive.) Michel was tripped up on the few runs that looked close to breaking open, and for the first time this season there was no Georgia tailback galloping for a huge gain. Georgia’s longest run of the game was 12 yards by Marshall. Not many deep passes were attempted, and Davis’s apparent injury on the opening kickoff might have something to do with that. Missouri’s pressure caused Georgia to use shorter passes like receiver screens, and Missouri’s physical cornerbacks prevented those from turning into small gains (and several losses.) With Georgia forced to move down the field in small chunks, it only took one penalty or failed conversion to end those drives and scoring opportunities.

No one is going to (or should) crow about the aesthetics of the game or feel very positive about the offense in a post-Chubb world. Still, after two miserable weeks, the win is a good note on which to enter the bye week. Georgia should have some players returning from injury, and they’ll have two weeks to think about an opponent that showed them up on both sides of the ball a year ago (not to mention special teams.) A defense that is as committed to tackling and pressure as Georgia showed on Saturday can give you a chance to win. The offense though hasn’t contributed more than 17 points since the Southern game, and the next defense they’ll see isn’t far from the one they just faced.

• Oh, that Leonard Floyd.
• The body paint in the student section spelled out the hashtag “#MISERY.” I don’t think they intended to serve as game commentary.
• As impressive as the Georgia defense was, two of the biggest tackles came from Georgia receivers. Kenneth Towns hustled to save a touchdown on Missouri’s interception of Lambert’s first pass. The four points saved as a result of his effort and the subsequent defensive stand turned out to provide the winning margin. Malcolm Mitchell, subbing in on the punt team after Sanders was ejected, delivered a perfectly-timed hit on the return man to force a fumble that flipped field position and led to Georgia’s tying score.
• The ejection of Sanders (I couldn’t disagree after seeing the endzone angle) not only cost the defense their best defensive back, it also put a lot more pressure on the freshmen. Abram held his own, and Briscoe made several important plays. McGraw’s first half coverage of a slant pass was textbook.
• We have three more years to stop calling him “Abrams.”
• It’s frustrating when the “correct” play call is wrong. If the defense is going to send seven or eight guys, then, yes, those quick receiver screens should work (as should other countermeasures.) But they must be blocked, and Georgia couldn’t handle two of the SEC’s more physical cornerbacks. These are the kinds of plays that Georgia needs to be able to execute with consistency in order to make the defense pay for selling out against the run. But since Georgia couldn’t block with any kind of success on the perimeter, Missouri was able to defend those screens effectively while still crowding the line of scrimmage.
• Missouri ran the speed option a couple of times to test Georgia outside. The Dawgs were ready each time, though it helps that the quarterback wasn’t a big threat to keep the ball.
• It wasn’t a perfect game for the special teams, but the mistakes weren’t backbreakers. Coverage teams had their best games of the season. Godwin was a pleasant surprise returning punts and gave Georgia decent field position on several second half drives. Even the onside kick was a good idea with the execution coming up just a little short. The space was wide open. Fortunately the defense made that error forgettable.
• I can’t be the only one who had a bad feeling about a squib kick after Morgan’s go-ahead FG. But Georgia kicked it deep, covered it well, and the defense got after the Missouri quarterback. It was a good feeling – there was plenty of time left, but neither the Georgia defense or the Missouri offense gave you much reason to worry that the Tigers could throw the ball into position to tie the game. They did come uncomfortably close to converting that fourth down pass though along the sideline.
• Tyler is on to something here. When did Missouri have their best (only?) scoring drive of the game?

Earlier this summer Glynn County officials sent word across the state that they’d be cracking down on underage drinking, littering, disorderly conduct, and similar violations during the annual influx of students known as “Frat Beach” during the Georgia-Florida weekend. Trashed beaches – and trashed students – got to a point where the local government felt the need to respond.

Whether because of that crackdown or more general apathy towards Georgia football and the Florida game, there’s definitely been an immediate impact on the local hospitality industry. The Brunswick News reports that hotel reservations for the weekend are down by as much as 30 percent from 2014. The CEO of the Golden Isles Convention and Visitors Bureau claims that “In the past, we are usually at 100 percent occupancy by now…hotels that are usually sold out by now still have up to 40 rooms available.” The vacancies even extend to beach properties.

So good news if you’re still looking for a place for the WLOCP. But Golden Isles businesses who depend on that weekend for a little shot in the arm after the summer tourist season might be reconsidering how much frat they are willing to tolerate on their beaches.

Short Fields

Missouri is leading the SEC in scoring defense (13.5 PPG), and that should make any Georgia fan a little nervous. A low-scoring game puts pressure on the Georgia offense of course but also on the defense to keep the opponent off the board while the offense is fighting for every point it gets.

The good news for the defense is that while Missouri’s scoring defense leads the conference, its scoring offense is in the opposite position. The Tigers are averaging only 13.3 points per SEC game, and they managed just 24 points against the South Carolina defense that Georgia lit up. The challenge for Georgia’s defense is to avoid becoming a panacea for the second straight week. At Tennessee we saw a passing game that averaged under 200 yards per game blow past 300 yards.

When a team is struggling on offense, the key to ensuring that they continue to struggle is to make them work for their points. Bernie pointed out one way that Missouri shortens the field: turnovers. “Missouri’s defense…forced three turnovers against South Carolina on Oct. 3 and the team won by two touchdowns. Against Kentucky and Florida, the Tigers didn’t get a takeaway and lost both games.” Missouri got their only second half points against South Carolina on a short 31-yard drive following an interception.

The offense and special teams also have a role in avoiding the short field. Even if Georgia’s offense isn’t scoring, a couple of first downs versus a three-and-out can make a big difference in field position. That puts Barber and the coverage team in the spotlight. Hopefully we’ll get plenty of kickoffs to test that unit too.

Sony Michel: feature back

Can Michel handle the load? We expect to see other backs step up to help, but the focus is and should be squarely on Sony Michel. We know all about his explosive ability running and receiving, but we’re now talking about 20-25 carries per game. The drop-off last week was worrisome: Georgia carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards in the second half of the Tennessee game. Will Georgia’s running game be in a condition to put the game away on the ground in the fourth quarter?

Bill Connelly notes something else about Michel: “He’s more of an all-or-nothing back: whereas 47 percent of Chubb’s carries gained at least five yards, only 30 percent of Michel’s have.” With so much emphasis on third down conversions this week, including the scrutiny of performance on first and second down to make third downs more manageable, that’s a significant stat. Michel can make the big play, but as important are the shorter but still positive gains on earlier downs that keeps the offense ahead of the chains.

The freshman and the senior

The Missouri game usually means worrying about a mobile quarterback like James Franklin and, more recently, Maty Mauk. Mauk remains suspended and the Dawgs will instead face Drew Lock, a stronger pocket passer. Lock isn’t much of a threat to run, though he had an 11-yard scramble at Kentucky. He’s yet to finish a game with positive rushing totals, and Georgia will want to make sure that continues. He’s thrown at least 28 passes in the two games he’s started during Mauk’s suspension, but he’s only averaging 5.57 yards per attempt. The Georgia game will be the true freshman’s first road start, and both the crowd and the Georgia front will have to work to keep him unsettled.

The offense was supposed to be led by Mauk and tailback Russell Hansbrough, now in his 17th season at Missouri. Hansbrough rushed for nearly 1,100 yards in 2014 but has battled an ankle injury this season. He didn’t play against UConn, and the offense was even less productive in that 9-6 victory. Missouri needs him to be at his best in order to do much on offense, and he had his best outing of the season last week against Florida: 74 yards on only 9 carries (8.2 per) with runs of 23 and 26 yards. His carries will still be limited, and Pinkel will continue to bring him back slowly. “We’ll just have to wait and see when that point is where he can play an entire game and rep a little bit more than what we’ve been repping him.” While Hansbrough works back in, the team’s leading rusher is sophomore Ish Witter. No Missouri back has had a 100-yard game this season, but Witter came close with 98 yards against South Carolina. Keeping he and Hansbrough well south of 100 yards should be an objective for the defense.

October’s a lovely month in Georgia. It’s what we picture when summer gives us a cruel tease of football weather: Low humidity. Pleasant afternoon temperatures. Crisp mornings. Fall color.

But over the past three seasons October has been the most bitter of months for Georgia football. Whether it’s been bad losses on the field, heartbreaking injuries, or scandals off the field, Georgia fans would prefer to forget the tenth month. October 2015 is proving to be no exception. We got off to an early start with the McKenzie distraction and followed it up with two losses that have us asking familiar questions and looking for signs of hope in the SEC tiebreaker scenarios. Oh, and everyone’s favorite player is now out for the rest of the season.

At Tennessee Georgia found itself up 24-3 thanks to big plays from all three units, but it quickly turned into 2006 again. Georgia couldn’t sustain the things that built the lead, and a Tennessee team that moved the ball well all day turned momentum in its favor and rolled to 28 straight points and the lead.

While several of Georgia’s biggest contributors tried to step up and take responsibility for the loss, it took the entire team to drop this game. The offense and defense could spend some time pointing fingers…

Offense: 38 points seems to be the magic number, huh?

Defense: To be fair, we were on the field for over 90 plays. Over 34 minutes. It didn’t help that you were 4-of-14 on third downs and put us right back out on the field time after time.

Offense: Be real. You had plenty of opportunities to get off the field. The Vols had 26 first downs. Tennessee converted eight third downs and had two killer fourth down conversions on top of that. And we were going on about 4th-and-Willie? Make a stop.

Defense: We did more than make a stop. We gave you great field position with an interception right off the bat. And for the second straight week, what did you do with an early turnover? In fact, you had three first half possessions in Tennessee territory with only one field goal to show for it. Yes, we were up 24-3 at one point, but the offense contributed only 10 of those points and didn’t take advantage of some very good chances to put the game away.

Offense: Let’s talk about 24-3. In the first half! We put them in a position to have to throw to come back – right where we wanted them. You’re going to be seeing curl routes in your sleep. Hopefully you will tackle them better there.

Defense: We wouldn’t have been at 24-3 without the defense and our weird special friend over there. The offense only managed 17 points all game against a defense that had struggled against both the run and the pass. And what a mixed bag in the passing game. Some great deep balls and an 8.7 yards-per-completion but a completion rate under 50% that made it impossible to sustain drives. Can we get any kind of consistency on offense?

Offense: And you launched the Josh Dobbs for Heisman campaign! Good job to hold Jalen Hurd under 100 yards, but damn – 312 yards passing by a team that averaged under 200 per game? They had that nearly by halftime. And it’s not as if you took away the run. What Hurd didn’t get Dobbs did. Over 400 yards of total offense and five touchdowns. I know we had been nervous about a QB like Dobbs since signs of weakness showed up in the season opener, but we never imagined you’d turn him into Joshy Football.

Defense: Well what happened to our running game? Sony looked great in the first half, but there were diminshing returns. In the second half we ran the ball 11 times for a whopping 34 yards. The longest carry was a 12-yard run by Marshall. Michel had 9 carries for 21 yards after halftime. So it was up to the passing game to shoulder the load in the second half. Where was our dominant line?

Offense: Don’t bring up lines. You got pushed around by a Tennessee OL forced to use two reserve freshmen. There was next to no pass rush even with the Vols throwing the ball down 21. Don’t we have a fleet of NFL-bound pass rushers? Wasn’t Floyd moved back outside for this game to give us more of a presence on the edge?

Defense: Well, didn’t you notice Jordan Jenkins was limited with an injury?

Offense: …

Defense: Oh – right. Sorry, buddy. Look, here comes special teams…

• You wonder where Reggie Davis goes from here. It was simultaneously his best game and his worst moment. It looked as if Godwin had emerged as a second receiving threat, but Davis’s big plays in this game gave Georgia something they had been lacking. His ability to get open deep should give him (and those calling plays) confidence, and you hope that drop doesn’t haunt him.
• So too with Sony Michel. It’s clear that he’ll have to be the feature back now, but his production really trailed off after the fumbled kickoff. Was that coincidence? Fatigue from a player not used to being in the 25 carries per game role? Michel has had costly fumbles in some big moments now – the Tech game last year and now at Tennessee. His longest run of the day ended with a fumble out of bounds. As he moves into the spotlight, this very gifted player will have to put some past mistakes behind him and play with confidence and toughness.
• Michel’s run load along with the rest of the running game will have to be reevaluated in the next week. Of course you want Michel to touch the ball as much as possible, but some redistribution of carries to Marshall (and Douglas) makes sense to keep Michel fresh and available for the occasional pass play where he’s proven extremely dangerous.
• Blazevich is still on the team, isn’t he? As much as we heard about Schottenheimer and his tight ends, the starter hasn’t caught a pass since the Southern game. Rome at least got a few thrown his way.
• Kimbrough was a bright spot in the Alabama game and continued to make plays in this loss. His penetration led to the fumble that got Georgia on the board.
• Credit Tennessee for setting up a big play. They went with receiver screen after receiver screen and popped a TE for a long gain when two Georgia defenders bit on the screen look.
• You can spend a while on special teams breakdowns, but two returns deserve mention. A kick return of over 40 yards gave the Vols life after Davis’s punt return, and they didn’t have far to go before scoring their first touchdown. Those fourth down decisions become much different if the ball is 20 yards towards the Tennessee endzone. Also the Vols were rewarded for an aggressive punt return on Georgia’s final punt. Many teams would have gone with the fair catch around their own 10. The Vols took a risk and got a 20-yard return out over their 30. They got some breathing room and were able to launch an amazing punt that rolled out of bounds on the one-inch line.

Georgia’s October 17th Homecoming game against Missouri will be broadcast at 7:30 p.m. on the SEC Network. The network’s lead team of Brent Musburger, Jesse Palmer, and Maria Taylor will be on hand to call the game.

It’s the latest kickoff yet this season. Students and many fans will be excited about the night game. That this is Homecoming though takes a bit of the shine off of the late start. Homecoming weekend is important for many student organizations but also for many older fans for whom the late night will be a hardship or just impossible. That’s why Homecoming kickoffs are typically so much earlier. The new experience of a Homecoming game in prime time will be interesting for sure, and you can bet that many groups planning Homecoming activities and tailgates are scrambling right now to deal with the later start.

Some advanced stats from Saturday’s game. Nothing too surprising hidden in there, but one unit comes out looking a little better than the others.

• The saddest part is that the advanced stats only go two quarters deep. Nearly the entire second half was garbage time.
• Georgia’s run defense played fairly well. There were breakdowns of course like Henry’s touchdown run, but on the whole the secondary had a much worse day. (This isn’t shown in the stats, but I thought Georgia did an excellent job at sniffing out the few jet sweeps Alabama tried.)
• Though the teams were about equally poor on third down, Alabama had a higher overall success rate on all downs. That means they did their damage largely on first or second down.
• If it wasn’t the roughest passing performance since Hines Ward was thrown to the wolves against Alabama in 1995, it’s right up there.
• Wunderlich observes that Georgia “doesn’t have a really great receiver either outside of Mitchell.” That’s not a bombshell – with Scott-Wesley out, it’s been up to guys like Davis and McKenzie to take on larger roles. Godwin is promising and has already moved into that second spot. The glaring omission here is the absence of tights ends and fullbacks. Georgia’s depth at the other skill positions was supposed to mitigate an inexperienced group of receivers. Welch was the only player from this group even targeted in the first half. It’s possible that Georgia had to keep the tight ends in for pass protection, but Alabama rarely brought pressure, relying on coverage to force Lambert to check down or scramble.

The bit at the end about Georgia’s talent not syncing up is a good one and something we’ve dealt with since Stafford, Moreno, and Green played on the same offense in 2008. Unfortunately that’s not going to begin to change until February (and then the next February…). The question now is whether Georgia can overcome those deficiencies so clearly exposed by Alabama to avoid a tailspin and get the team back on track towards its goals.

First, the only good news from the game: Nick Chubb kept his 100-yard streak alive. Moving on…

It took almost exactly one minute of game time for things to go south. Georgia was able to counter Alabama’s opening field goal, but they couldn’t muster an answer to Henry’s touchdown run. Within a minute, a blocked punt, another three-and-out, and a deep touchdown pass turned a close contest into a 21-point deficit that might as well have been twice that. Georgia was out of answers and had no effective adjustment or response to that second quarter blow.

When you set a game up as a measuring stick, such a decisive outcome lends itself to some pretty decisive and absolute conclusions. I don’t think this is an end-of-the-road type of game (as opposed to the 2009 Tennessee game). Alabama is an outstanding team that was simply better than Georgia in many areas. They’ve recruited better. As Jeremy Pruitt said postgame, Alabama’s eight years into things that Georgia is just now starting to do. As tough as it is to think about two days removed from the loss, some of the changes made in the past 12 to 18 months need some time to take hold.

But that’s longer-term stuff, and this game was about more than that. Opportunities were missed early in the game to put pressure on Alabama. Mitchell was open on the game’s first play. Outstanding field position following Alabama’s fumble was squandered. Even a high-percentage pass to the fullback wasn’t completed. A questionable penalty set Georgia up with the game’s intitial first-and-goal. Was Alabama fortunate to get to the second quarter with a tie score? Yes and no – yes in that Georgia misfired on several chances to go up early but no in that Alabama was a very active force in limiting what Georgia was able to do with those opportunities.

So from the beginning Georgia’s execution – at quarterback, in the secondary, at receiver, on special teams, and especially on the sideline – was lacking. Teams that beat Alabama make those plays and take advantages of the few openings the Tide allow. Alabama on the other hand made their own opportunities and cashed in on them with several explosive plays.

It’s not worth going into the bullet points – they’re all variations of the same thing. The more important thing now is to avoid letting this poor performance become a second loss. They were able to do that in 2012, but it took some exceptional leadership to get there. Does this Georgia team have that kind of rebound in it?

While Hurricane Jaoquin dominates headlines, its exact track won’t have much to do with a forecast for some heavy rainfall in east Georgia over the weekend. We won’t go full weather nerd here, but the message is to be prepared for rain during travel, tailgate, and the game.

This is the kind of game where Athens is overrun with people who don’t even plan on going to the game, and the wet weather will unfortunately restrict what was already expected to be tight parking. Free parking at the Intramural Fields will be limited due to soggy turf, and that will eliminate at least 2,000 parking spots.

The forecast and the parking situation lead to the same point: allow plenty of time for travel and for finding a spot to park. Arrive early. Spend some money in an Athens restaurant or shop if you need to dry out. And don’t let a little rain keep you from making Sanford Stadium red and loud from pregame on.

I won’t even begin to guess how rain will affect the teams. There’s conventional wisdom about it favoring the running game, but then I have visions of Shannon Mitchell catching 79 passes in the 1993 Cocktail Party.

Outside linebackers. They’re the strength of the defense and, after the tailbacks, comprise one of the deepest and most talented positions on the team. Having Bellamy back will help. Each of the linebackers has had his moments so far, and Jordan Jenkins had as good of a game at Vanderbilt as any defender has had this year. But if there’s a moment for the entire group to elevate its play, this is it. It will be a tough challenge – Alabama’s line has only given up five sacks through four games including just one against an outstanding Ole Miss front, and they pave the way for the only tailback duo in the SEC that can rival Georgia’s.

It might not even be accurate to include Floyd with this group. His role has been so varied that he’s spent as much, if not more, time at ILB or star than on the edge. He’ll have the ability to make an impact in this game too whether it’s covering someone like O.J. Howard or as a pass rusher.

So the question: can this unit affect a game like this? We’re talking an impact on the level of Jarvis Jones and Jordan Jenkins against Florida in 2012. Over the summer Seth Emerson wrote, “Jenkins and Floyd have to hear the time ticking on their chance to become stars.” There’s no better opportunity than in the biggest regular season SEC game. Carter is younger but has a related challenge: can he become more of an every down OLB than a fearsome pass rush specialist? The first job of the group will be to contain those outstanding tailbacks and keep them from getting into space. If they can manage that, they’ll have the opportunity to go after Coker and affect the game with the pass rush. We don’t expect another five-turnover game from Alabama, but effective pressure can lead to some takeaway opportunities.

Tight ends / fullbacks. Fullback Christian Payne’s injury changes things. Georgia’s base runs out of the I-formation rely on the fullback, and Payne’s absence leaves only Quayvon Hicks. Hicks of course is more than capable, but he’s been an inconsistent blocker. He’ll have to be in top form for Georgia’s best running plays to work.

To support Hicks, we could also expect 2-TE sets that use an offset tight end as a lead blocker rather than (or in addition to) a fullback. Freshman Jackson Harris has had an impressive September allowing coaches to use combinations of he, Blazevich, and Rome. Whether on inside power/counter runs or sweeps to the outside, Georgia’s tight ends are essential to the running game.

We’ve seen both tight ends and fullbacks involved in the passing game too. Pass protection will become more important against a quality Alabama front seven, but these players have proven to be effective receivers also especially out of play-action. At times Blazevich can be flexed out to help spread out that front seven and hopefully open some things up both running and passing.

Specialists. It’s cliched to lump special teams into posts like this, and we know that Georgia’s coverage units in particular will be in the spotlight. But in a game that’s projected to be close, things like starting field position matter more. Grabbing three points when given the opportunity could provide the final margin. Alabama’s specialists have had their issues with consistency (as have Georgia’s), and either group having a good game will give its team an advantage.

It’s a tough subject to bring up, but we still don’t know much about Marshall Morgan’s mental state after his accidental involvement in last week’s tragic injury to Devon Gales. His next kick will be the first since that play. From the Brad Gaines story we know that being on the other end of the hit can understandably affect a player’s mindset.

Returners will also be under the gun. Bama’s ArDarius Stewart fumbled the opening kickoff against Alabama. Isaiah McKenzie had an adventurous afternoon against Southern. Both return units are capable of big plays, but any mistakes would be a disaster.

Courtesy of Georgia ‘net legend redclayhound (a very apt moniker in this case) comes a bit of history from the unforgettable 21-0 Georgia win over Alabama in 1976. Leonard’s not around anymore (RIP), but we’ll take another result like this.

Leonard’s Losers–1976 Georgia vs Alabama

The Super Detergent Salesmen from Tusculoosa will visit the Sanford Kennels to try out a new Flea and Tick Soap on Vince Dooley’s K-9s, and if the Dogs ain’t ready for this wash job they could get a sudsing they’ll remember for a long time. The Water Walker from Alabama is famous for puttin’ a hurtin’ on the Bulldogs, and he has the equipment to do it again, but the Bear might be surprised by the new Bulldog Breed he’ll run into on his trip to Athens. The Red Clay Hounds are hungry and fond of Elephant meat, so I’m inclined to think the Pachyderms will get lightened up considerably in their hind quarters. Leonard’s Loser: Bama by 7

Chris Brown of Grantland and Smart Football wrote during the summer of 2013 about an emerging approach to offense called “packaged plays”. Offenses combined options for run and pass within a single play that could lead to very different decisions and outcomes based on what the defense showed. The concept allows for offenses to push tempo by keeping play calls simple (or even unchanged) while keeping the defense guessing. Brown illustrated with just one play from Ole Miss that included all of the following:

Ole Miss combined a five-yard hitch route to the single receiver to the left, an inside zone, a quarterback read-option keep, and a receiver screen to the offense’s right. And as a final wrinkle, their tight end ran an “arc” release to block an outside linebacker.

We’ve seen these plays spread throughout college football and even the NFL, and variants like the pop pass are some of the most well-known / infamous / notorious plays in college football’s recent history. Now it appears to be Georgia’s turn. Whether you call it a “packaged play” or an “RPO” (run-pass option) in Schottenheimer’s NFL-flavored playbook, the idea is the same. Of course as the Senator points out, Lambert’s lack of mobility reduces (but doesn’t entirely eliminate) the QB run option, but Georgia’s variety is more likely to be a handoff combined with the option for a quick slant or WR screen – exactly what we saw against South Carolina.

Georgia 48 – Southern 6

Most importantly, our prayers are with Devon Gales, his family, and the Southern community. There was some encouraging news on Sunday, but it’s telling that reports are mentioning movement only in the upper body. He has a long fight ahead, but we know that the treatment and rehabilitation of spinal cord injuries has come a long way. The Georgia program has gone the extra mile in this situation, and we’d expect nothing less.

Not much to take from the game itself. Georgia got pushed around on the line of scrimmage in the first half, woke up for the third quarter, and emptied the bench for the last 15 minutes. The Dawgs got off to a quick start thanks in large part to field position, but there was a bit of fool’s gold there. Georgia wasn’t effective running the ball at any point in the half, racking up just 35 yards on the ground in the first half.

The message delivered at halftime had its desired effect as Chubb equaled Georgia’s first half rushing total on the first three plays of the second half. The Dawgs rebounded with 226 second half rushing yards and scored 28 points in the third quarter. Greyson Lambert, meanwhile, had another extremely efficient day with 9-for-10 passing and 14.6 yards per attempt.

Just a few more points before we move on to Alabama.

• Kickoffs: You can tell there was some work done during the week. There were a fair number of touchbacks and some nice tackles early in the return. Even when a very capable return man got into space, Georgia usually had it contained. Still some things to work on but an improvement from South Carolina.
• McKenzie took a few more risks – maybe it was a casual attitude towards the opponent, maybe just a bad day. His first return was a dangerous Family Circus-style jog around the field for an eventual four-yard return. His last return turned out even worse. There was some interference as the ball landed near Briscoe engaged with a defender, and no one seemed quite sure what to do. Maybe this is the trade-off for the “human joystick” plays, but in some situations there’s no shame in a fair catch.
• It wasn’t just the offensive line that looked sluggish. Georgia recorded only one sack, and that came in the fourth quarter. The Dawgs tried a few blitzes, and pressure was a big part of ending an early Southern drive that ended with a missed field goal. It was a fairly quiet day for the outside linebackers – with Bellamy injured, Carter and Jenkins combined for only four tackles, two QB hits, and no sacks or tackles for loss.
• There were only two Georgia penalties, but they were costly. Jenkins lined up offsides, giving him a head start on the hit that led to an interception. Houston was too deep in the backfield on a beautiful touchdown pass to Mitchell, but Malcolm scored two plays later anyway.
• Mitchell is looking like his 2011 and 2012 self not just in terms of health and explosiveness but also dependability. He was one of the top receivers in the SEC as a true freshman in terms of catch rate, and he was a nice security blanket for a young quarterback to have. Lambert and Mitchell are really starting to click.
• Again, the coaches gave Lambert some quick passes to get comfortable, but he was as sharp as he was a week ago. Georgia was able to lean on the passing game before the run blocking kicked into gear.
• We were trying to think of the last time we saw Georgia go five-wide with no one in the backfield. It’s not a common thing for sure. The interesting thing about that look: Georgia can show that spread look with five receivers split out and without changing personnel come back on the next play with a tighter ace formation as Blazevich moves back next to the tackle and Michel returns to the backfield. That’s a difficult defensive adjustment if Georgia’s pushing the tempo.
• Sony seems to have at least one of these physical get-off-me runs every game lately, doesn’t he?
• The downside of the shortened ULM game was the missed opportunity to play even more freshman than Georgia managed to play in three quarters. They got their chance against Southern. Jayson Stanley cracked the box score with a couple of catches. Faton Bauta is no freshman, but we were glad to see him get his first snaps of the season. (Would have been nice to have seen Bauta run the ball himself.) The defensive reserves had a nice moment late in the game forcing a turnover on downs after McKenzie’s fumble. Trenton Thompson and D’Andre Walker punctuated the defense’s stand with a fourth down sack.
• It seemed unfair to put Trenton Thompson in. “Hey, tired and beaten opponent…we’ll empty our bench now. That guy? Just a 5-star prospect with incredible speed for his size and position.” Thompson’s emphatic tackle was the cherry on top of the South Carolina game, but we got to see a lot more from him on Saturday. He’ll have a more significant debut on a bigger stage soon, but this was our first good look at a bright future.
• Brice Ramsey actually ended up attempting more passes than Lambert and finished 11-for-14. Two of those incompletions were nearly interceptions – an overthrown pass that went through the safety’s hands and then an underthrown deep ball that fell short of a sliding defender. He did a good job though of running the second team offense and getting the ball to a diverse set of receivers that included Keith Marshall, Glenn Welch, Jayson Stanley, and Kenneth Towns.