I’m off to Nashville for the SEC Women’s Basketball Tournament this weekend, so it’s preview time again.  The big story this year has to be the down year for the conference.  There are only two SEC teams ranked, only one with fewer than five conference losses, only five teams projected to earn an NCAA bid (one of them by the skin of their teeth), and only two teams projected higher than a #8 seed.  Tennessee is strong as almost always, but even they’re having to compete for attention among national pundits. 

Conventional wisdom says it should be a pretty easy go of it for Tennessee, but fortunately tournaments always seem to have a few surprises in store.  There could be some interesting Thursday games as even the #11 and #12 seeds have little reason to fear their opponents. There are also the stories of teams trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  LSU simply can’t afford an early loss.

We’ll have updates throughout the weekend from Nashville on Twitter.

Georgia has lost three in a row after posting a 10-3 start in conference play, but they can easily regroup and earn another shot at Tennessee on Saturday.  We’ve seen them play outstanding ball at times, but we’ve also seen consistent and repetitive mistakes that makes almost any game they play a toss-up.

Several Lady Dogs were recognized this week in the postseason conference honors.  Senior forward Porsha Phillips was named to the All-SEC first team.  Guard Jasmine James merited second-team honors, and Meredith Mitchell was selected for the All-Defensive team.  It’s also no surprise that impact freshman guard Khaalidah Miller was named to the All-Freshman team.

Georgia’s path through the tournament

• Friday:  7:30 PM vs. #5 South Carolina or #12 Ole Miss (FSN)
• Saturday: 4:00 PM Semifinal (ESPNU)
• Sunday: 5:30 PM Final (ESPN2)

On to the teams (get the bracket here):

Runaway Favorite

1. Tennessee (16-0): Tennessee might be just short of UConn or Baylor as national contenders, but there’s no questioning their dominance of the SEC.  UT has lost just once in conference play over the past two seasons, and the gulf between them and the rest of the field has only widened in this down year for the league.  That’s not to say the Lady Vols can’t be upset along the way.  LSU, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt came within single-digits of beating Tennessee during the regular season.  But those were all true road games for UT, and the crowd in Nashville figures to be as partisan as ever for the ladies in orange. It’s also worth noting that Tennessee wouldn’t face any of those teams until the final.

The Pips

The next three teams are decent backup acts to Tennessee’s headline act, but it would be a big surprise if any of them ended up with top billing on Sunday. Each of these teams has been ranked at some point, but currently only Kentucky merits a top 25 spot.

2. Kentucky (11-5): It was a big surprise when Kentucky stormed to the #2 spot in the league last year with an 11-5 record, but no one is doing a double-take this year.  They’ve followed up last year with another solid season featuring a win over #7 Notre Dame and a sweep of Vanderbilt. They also have a few questionable losses that had them lower in the standings until they finished with three straight SEC wins. UK’s stars are familiar names by now:  forward Victoria Dunlap is a perennial player of the year candidate, and they get backcourt scoring from A’dia Mathies.  The Cats need help from another player if they’re going to go far in the tournament, and they’ll look to Keyla Snowden for that extra punch.

3. Vanderbilt (10-6): For as young as this team is, it wasn’t a bad year for Vandy.  Nine of Vanderbilt’s 14 players are underclassmen, and it took them a while to get going.  They had some bad early losses to the likes of Denver, Virginia Tech, and Ole Miss, but they got it going during an early February stretch that saw five wins in six games.  Despite the young roster, the team is led by its senior duo of guard Jence Rhoads and forward Hannah Tuomi. Rhoads is a calming presence who always seems to have the offense under control, and the undersized Tuomi won’t back down from anyone inside.  Even if they’re outclassed in terms of talent, Vandy is well-coached, playing in their home town, and should be in any game they play in the tournament – even against Tennessee.

4. Georgia (10-6): We’ve followed the story of Georgia’s rough final week, so we won’t rehash it here.  This is a team that build a decent record by getting it done against the bottom half of the league. Thanks to the sweep of Kentucky, Georgia is a shaky 3-4 against the top six seeds. 

The Logjam

Four teams finished the year 8-8 or 7-9.  In most years, that would qualify them for the NCAA Tournament with the strength of the conference on their side.  That’s not the case this year.  Only a couple of these teams have a prayer of earning an NCAA bid, and it might take a deep run in Nashville for that to happen.

5. South Carolina (8-8):  Dawn Staley’s program took another small step forward this year and notched wins over Georgia, LSU, and Kentucky.  Their 8-8 finish could have been even better if not for a pair of overtime losses in the final week of the season.  SC’s season is more impressive considering the offseason transfer of dominant center Kelsey Bone. That transfer left South Carolina very thin inside, and they were dealt another blow when sharpshooter Valerie Nainima was lost for the first half of the season with a knee injury.  You look at South Carolina and don’t see any real standout players or dominant stats, but they find a way.  Their games are likely to be low-scoring and grinding, reflecting the tenaciousness of their coach. Guards Ieasia Walker and La’Keisha Sutton lead the way.

6. Auburn (8-8): Auburn struggled with a tough early schedule, and it seemed to pay off as they started SEC play 5-1. They hit a wall soon after MLK Day and have won only three games since late January.  The Tigers don’t have an especially strong frontcourt, but they are carried by senior guard Alli Smalley. They might have enough to get by Mississippi State, but the two teams split during the regular season.  If MSU’s backcourt can frustrate Smalley, Auburn could be an early exit.

7. LSU (8-8): Few teams in the tournament have as much to gain as LSU. At 8-8 and 18-12 overall, the Tigers – regular Final Four contenders just a few years ago – are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. They do have a nice win over UCLA, but there might be too many losses if they can’t win a couple in Nashville. All-SEC forward LaSondra Barrett leads the Tigers in scoring and rebounding in league play, and guard Adrienne Webb has knocked down 70 three-pointers.  LSU is known for lockdown defense, but they struggle to score at times themselves.  They’ve lost 3 out of 4 heading to Nashville.

8. Florida (7-9): Florida notched big wins during the final week against Vanderbilt and Georgia to separate themselves from the bottom tier of the league.  They enter the tournament winners of three in a row and have to be feeling good about a rematch with Arkansas in the 8-9 game. Only one Florida player, guard Jordan Jones, is averaging double-figures.  But the Gators have an astounding nine players averaging at least five points per game.  It’s truly been a team effort for Florida this year, and it’s starting to pay off at the end of the season.  Their late-season surge has probably earned them a spot in the WNIT.

Long Shots

9. Arkansas (6-10): It’s about as predictable as anything can get in sports.  Arkansas runs out to an impressive record in December, maybe even earns a spot in the rankings, and then tanks as the conference grind wears on them.  The Hogs started the year 14-1 and boasted wins over Oklahoma and Kentucky.  A close home loss to Georgia started a slide in which they lost 7 of 9.  They ended up losing 10 SEC games, but they have had a number of close calls.  Both losses to Georgia could have gone either way.  They have two overtime losses and four others by five points or less. Wing C’eira Ricketts leads them in scoring, but to advance they’ll have to have big games from versatile forward Sarah Watkins and three-point specialist Lyndsay Harris.

10. Alabama (5-11):  It looked as if Bama was again headed for the SEC cellar when they started league play 0-9.  But they’ve finished with five wins in their last seven games to enter the tournament as one of the hotter teams in the league.  First team All-SEC selection Tierney Jenkins has raised her game this year and leads the team in scoring, rebounding, blocks, and steals.  McDonald’s All-American freshman Kaneisha Horn has made an impact, and guard Ericka Russell can do damage from outside.  Bama lost by 29 in their only meeting of the year with first-round opponent LSU, but that was two months ago and long before Bama found their stride.

Probably attending class on Friday

11. Mississippi State (4-12): The Bulldogs were the #3 seed a year ago but had a massive talent drain leading to this season’s rebuilding effort.  Interestingly though, MSU draws an Auburn team that they’ve played very evenly this year.  Auburn won in Starkville 45-41, but Mississippi State controlled the rematch 57-45.  If they can hold Auburn in the 40s again, the potential is there for a first-round upset.  MSU leans heavily on its senior guard Mary Kathryn Govero, and her outside shooting can keep the Bulldogs in a game. 

12. Ole Miss (3-13): Ole Miss likewise lost several key players highlighted by All-SEC star Bianca Thomas.  This year they’re led by one of their few experienced players, senior guard Kayla Melson.  Melson gets help from All-Freshman team guard Valencia McFarland.  As with MSU, Ole Miss’s first-round opponent isn’t necessarily an automatic loss even for a team at the bottom of the standings.  They beat South Carolina only a week ago.

With all of the highs and lows this senior class has experienced, they’ll fondly remember their final game at Stegeman Coliseum. Georgia shook off a slow start to put away LSU 73-53 and post the program’s first official 20-win season in over a decade.

The Dawgs fell behind by as many as nine early on, but they soon put the brakes on the LSU scoring and gradually caught up.  Georgia took a modest 30-25 lead into halftime, but they didn’t waste much time extending the lead after the break.  Georgia started the second half with a great deal more intensity and activity on both ends, and several transition baskets helped the Dawgs pull away.  LSU closed to within as few as 11 with about four and a half minutes left, but Georgia held their ground and never let the lead fall back into single digits.  The large lead allowed Mark Fox to take his seniors out one by one to be honored by the crowd. 

Forget bracketology or scoreboard-watching: Georgia doesn’t need much help at this point.  They’re in great shape thanks to winning these past two can’t-lose games.  Other teams like Colorado, Maryland, and Memphis couldn’t get it done tonight against lesser opponents, but Georgia did what they’ve done all year: cash in these types of games.  Other observations:

• Price played like it was his last time on this court. He sat after an early foul, but his two quick baskets after reentering the game seemed to get the Georgia offense going. He had three of the team’s first four baskets, and that was enough until the rest of the his teammates started scoring.  Price knelt to kiss the court as he left the game for the last time, and his performance was worthy of that kind of emotion.   
• It was positive to see Gerald Robinson so active.  He looked to drive, led the break, and chipped in three steals.  He scored 16 points without a three-pointer, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
• Barnes also had a nice Senior Night by his standards.  Six points and six rebounds were a nice contribution.
• Georgia eventually became disruptive on defense.  Especially effective was the posts showing out on high ball screens.  LSU guards often were forced into a walk, a bad pass, or just a change in plans. Several of those poor choices resulted in transition chances for Georgia.
• Ware keeps getting it done from behind the arc. No reason why he shouldn’t attempt 5-8 outside shots a game.
• Something was affecting Trey, and we learned afterwards that an injured toe leaves him questionable for Alabama.  He’s played with some degree of injury most of the season, but it was good to be able to sit him down for most of this one.
• And how about Bucklin?

Georgia forwards Chris Barnes and Jeremy Price play their final game at Stegeman Coliseum tonight. It’s been a pleasure to watch them develop from raw freshmen into key contributors to this team. Price in particular has made incredible strides and has become a solid complement to Trey Thompkins’ inside game. When Price plays well, Georgia usually wins.

Of course the Bulldogs are playing for more tonight than just their seniors. A 20-win season is at stake, and another can’t-lose result in terms of postseason positioning is in front of them. Georgia did a great job of taking it to an overmatched opponent on Saturday, and hopefully they can do the same against a struggling LSU club. 20 wins is an important milestone not only in terms of lobbying for an NCAA Tournament bid; it’s also a tangible accomplishment for Mark Fox and another sign to fans and recruits that things are going in the right direction at Georgia.

Some good reading on tonight’s game, the seniors, and the postseason:

• Georgia seeks 20-win payoff from hoops investment (AJC)
• Seniors set for Stegeman farewell (ABH)
• Fox restores belief in basketball program (R&B)

Brad Lambert was a defensive position coach at Georgia during the Jim Donnan years of the late 1990s. He mainly coached linebackers but also had responsibilities at one point for defensive ends, special teams, and even the secondary. Lambert headed to Wake Forest after the Georgia staff was replaced in 2001, and he eventually rose to become their defensive coordinator. While at Georgia, Lambert played a role in one of the best linebacker recruiting classes you’ll ever see. The 1998 class featured Boss Bailey, Will Witherspoon, Jessie Miller, Kawika Mitchell, and Tony Gilbert. Here’s a nice look at how Lambert convinced Witherspoon to come north to Georgia from Panama City rather than play for one of the in-state powers.

Lambert is moving on from Wake Forest to tackle a new challenge: starting the new football program at Charlotte. Charlotte (you might know them as UNC-Charlotte) has been on the map in hoops for a while, but they plan on launching a football program in time for the 2013 season. It’s a tough challenge: not only is it his first head coaching job, but he’ll also have to build a program from the ground up. It’s a tremendous opportunity, but it won’t be easy.

Lambert’s former boss, Donnan, thinks he’s up to the job. We remember Lambert being a genuinely good guy when he was here at Georgia, so we wish him good luck and success in his new role.

Bernie asks a good question: why are we just now finding out about the early February DUI arrest of a Tech baseball player?

The answer is probably a lot simpler than you think, and it can be summed up by this web page. Athens is a small enough town that media (or a random, bored message board denizen) can glance at the county and UGA arrest logs each morning and, without doing much work, see who got booked. Not much is going to get missed.

Try that in Atlanta. Does the Atlanta police department even offer a web page that logs who gets booked? How many people are ticketed or arrested on a given night in Atlanta? The city is big enough and the police active enough that an isolated DUI is going to have a lot of places to hide. That seems to have been the case here where it took several weeks for the story to come to light. The Damon Evans story broke as the result of media checking into a rumor and not as the result of someone hovering over the Atlanta city jail’s web site. Add in the many surrounding and overlapping jurisdictions in the metro Atlanta area, and it’s next to impossible to sort through. Athenians can keep up on a single handy, dandy web page.

Even the motivations of the local police and newspaper are different. You won’t get the AJC to cover the Tech beat unless there’s been another armed robbery. UGA dominates the Athens news. Both schools have their own police forces, but certainly the Clarke County police spend a lot more time dealing with student-related crime and patrol than the Atlanta police. I don’t suggest that either the Banner-Herald or the local police are out to get UGA students and athletes. But you do have a newspaper more likely to find smaller incidents newsworthy and a police force paying more attention than they would in a much larger city with a lot more going on.

A separate issue is one of policy. By now, most serious Georgia fans are unfortunately very familiar with the department-wide alcohol policy. The first offense earns you a suspension equivalent to 10% of the season. The second offense used to result in an automatic semester-long suspension from the University but now allows for some discretion based on the nature of the offense. A second offense now usually means a half-season suspension.

You might feel a little indignant that Skole’s public discipline to date is a one-game (less than 2% of the season) vacation against Georgia Southern. Let it go. There’s nothing that says that Tech or any school has to do anything. Is it right that Georgia student-athletes operate under a different and more strict set of rules? Fine. Until you codify student-athlete discipline across the NCAA (good luck with that), you’re going to have variation based on the priorities of the schools.

The surprising element to the story is that “Georgia Tech’s code of conduct for student-athletes doesn’t have any rules specific to DUIs.” You might think Georgia’s policy is excessive, but at least you know what it is. It’s an area into which the athletic department, with close cooperation from the University, put some thought. You might smirk and remark that Georgia has had a lot more experience in this area. Two responses – first, do we know? We just discussed how easy it is for individual incidents that are even matters of public record to get lost in the massive volume of Atlanta police activity. Tech has no obligation to release or comment on arrests or other disciplinary matters. Second, the present Tech athletic administration has had to deal with issues of drug abuse and DUI among its student-athletes and staff. There still doesn’t seem to be a unified policy, and that tends to leave things up to the individual program and away from public scrutiny.