We learn this morning that redshirt freshman quarterback Zach Mettenberger was arrested Saturday night in Remerton, Ga. near Valdosta and will face five misdemeanor charges. The big news of course is that we have an alcohol-related arrest that didn’t involve the Athens police. Let the hand-wringing about offseason discipline begin.

After you get over the shock of learning that an underage college student had a few on spring break (Valdosta, Talladega, whatever), this little story will very likely have an effect on one of the biggest questions facing the 2010 Georgia team: the starting quarterback. It should no longer be news that any alcohol-related arrest carries an automatic one-game suspension. If these charges hold up, Zach will, at the very least, sit out the season opener suspended.

I admit to having my biases about the quarterback position and have the luxury of not being responsible for the decision of naming the starter, but in my view Mettenberger has done us a favor. With the automatic suspension likely to sideline Mettenberger for the season opener, he’s no longer in the discussion to start. The staff isn’t going to spend fall camp preparing for the season with someone under center who won’t be available to start in the first game. They’re even less likely to change the starter after one game and give someone else his first career start on the road in Columbia.

That whittles the list down to two, and one of those two has kicked around the idea of playing a position other that quarterback if it would get him on the field. Still, Gray will “take the first reps with the #1 offense” as the Bulldogs begin spring practice. Things still might not be settled after the spring, but at least now we know that we’re looking at a Gray vs. Murray competition. That in and of itself simplifies things tremendously.

  It’s time again for my annual indulgence.  There’s always a great vibe around a conference tournament, and the SEC women’s tournament returns to the Arena at Gwinnett Center on Thursday for the first of three visits over the next five years. Since the tournament is right down the road, I’ll be camped out there throughout the weekend to mix with the fans and students from around the conference.  I might have an update or two here throughout the tournament about Georgia’s experience, but I’ll probably be a lot more active on Twitter.

Georgia got a bit of a disappointment on Sunday when they finished in a four-way tie for third place but came out on the short end of the tiebreaker with the #6 seed.  That outcome might not be a terrible thing.  The seeding lets Georgia avoid possible matchups with Tennessee, Vanderbilt, or LSU until the finals.  Georgia would have to play some tough opponents regardless if they plan on advancing to Saturday or Sunday, but the seeding would help them avoid some of the hotter teams in the conference.  In a season where Georgia has lost to teams as low as the #10 seed, there’s no such thing as a truly “easy” path through this tournament.

The Lady Dogs slipped to the #6 seed after starting the season 16-0 thanks to a midseason slump that included losses in six of eight games.  They’ve righted the ship somewhat and won three of their final four regular season games.  Midseason injuries still linger, but they’re as healthy as they’ve been since the start of conference play. 

Georgia’s all-conference honorees tell the story of the season.  Ashley Houts was every bit the senior leader that she was expected to be and earned a spot on the all-SEC first team. Georgia’s fortunes turned this year on the arrival of six freshmen, and two in particular – Jasmine James and Jasmine Hassell – have played big roles.  The pair was named to the all-freshmen team this week.

Georgia’s path through the tournament

• Thursday:  9:00 PM vs #11 Alabama (Fox Sports South)
• Friday:  9:00 PM vs. #3 Mississippi State (Fox Sports South)
• Saturday: 6:00 PM Semifinal (ESPNU)
• Sunday: 6:30 PM Final (ESPN2)

Now on to the teams (get the bracket here):

The Favorite

1. Tennessee (15-1): After a relatively disappointing season a year ago, the Lady Vols are again the regular season SEC champs. They have a single blemish on their conference mark: a road loss at Georgia that came down to the final shot. Tennessee isn’t back to where they expect to be on the national scene – not many teams can stand out from underneath UConn’s shadow – but the Lady Vols are at least back to their customary position as SEC Tournament favorites. That’s not to say that they’re a lock to win. They’ve looked vulnerable several times away from home. They lost at Georgia and had very close calls against Ole Miss, Florida, and South Carolina, and they will face one of those teams in the quarterfinals. Tennessee can get past most teams by leaning on good defense, but their scoring can run streaky.

The Surprise

2. Kentucky (11-5): Kentucky rolled through nonconference play with only one loss, and most of us chalked it up to a weak schedule. They started just 1-2, and it looked as if preseason expectations of a difficult season would bear out. UK was picked to finish 11th by the coaches and media before the season, but Matthew Mitchell has done another great job building this team. They rolled off eight straight conference wins and soon established themselves as the league’s second-best team. Their formula has been simple: defend the home court and ride the star. They are a perfect 14-0 at home this year, but they only faced Tennessee in Knoxville. Victoria Dunlap is top 5 in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. The emergence of freshman guard A’dia Mathies makes them that much more of a complete team, and they lead the league in scoring. UK ended up sweeping the coach, player, and freshman of the year awards in the SEC.  If the tournament were at Rupp Arena, you’d like their chances.

The Logjam

Four teams finished tied for third place, and it’s fitting that they went 2-2 as a group on Sunday in order to end up with identical records just a game over .500. All four teams are good enough to earn NCAA Tournament consideration, but they all have weaknesses and inconsistencies that have led to seven conference losses each. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one or more from this group playing for the title on Sunday, but they’re just as likely to be done by Friday.

3. Mississippi State (9-7): Congrats, Bulldogs. You started the day in 4th place, had a 30-point loss hung on you, and moved up to 3rd place as a result. MSU can thank the SEC tiebreaker rules for its tournament seed, but the foundation for that seed was laid with wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. MSU loves to shoot the outside shot – no other team has attempted more than their 655 three-point attempts. Unfortunately they’re in the bottom half of the league in three-point percentage. Their outside shooting has been enough to land them among the top seeds in the conference, but it hasn’t quite been good enough to keep them in the rankings where they started the season. Alexis Rack is the three-point specialist, and the team’s fortunes often ride on her outside shot. Chanel Mokango is enough of a presence inside to force teams to respect the paint.

4. LSU (9-7): LSU enters the tournament as the hot team you’d rather not play. The Tigers endured a rough start to SEC play that saw them sputter to a 4-6 league record by mid-February. They’ve since won 5 of 6 games with the only loss coming at Tennessee. No shame there. The difference has been a rededication to a smothering style of defense. LSU has given up an average of just 44 PPG in their last five wins and now leads the league in scoring defense. Their offense can be summed up in the name of Allison Hightower, but their midseason turnaround has come as others have started to contribute. A likely LSU-Vanderbilt game on Friday could be one of the most entertaining quarterfinal matchups.

5. Vanderbilt (9-7): Find a team with no key players over 6’1", and that team’s probably in trouble. It’s to Vanderbilt’s credit that they’ve managed to remain a very competitive and successful team with only one real frontcourt player. Hannah Tuomi, at 6’1", is facing taller opponents every night but still finds a way to be effective, tough, and – in the eyes of opponents – pesky while doing the rebounding, screening, and other dirty work that has to be done for a team to win. With Tuomi as the extent of the frontcourt Vandy had better shoot well from outside, and they do – they lead the SEC at just over 38% from behind the arc. Veteran guards Jence Rhoads and Merideth Marsh fit right into the talented, tough, and smart style we’ve come to expect from Melanie Balcomb’s teams. Vanderbilt, the league’s defending tournament champion, is one of those teams that knows how to turn it on for the postseason even if they’re not a top seed.

6. Georgia (9-7): Georgia might be kicking themselves for a last-second loss to Ole Miss that could have earned them a much higher seed, but they’ve been on the happier end of close games far more often this year. Big games from the offense have been the exception, so the expectation is for closely-contested games decided by defense. Injuries and fatigue in the middle of the season kept Georgia from playing the kind of defense that propelled them to a 16-0 start, but the team has showed signs of life down the stretch. They have a trio of nice frontcourt players, but the team will go as guards Ashley Houts and Jasmine Jones go.

Upset Specialists

The four teams leading the bottom half of the division all failed to post winning records in conference, but each has at least one quality win to their credit. All four of these teams were able to beat Georgia. Auburn beat LSU and Kentucky. South Carolina just won at Vanderbilt. Ole Miss swept LSU and beat Mississippi State. With that kind of upset potential from this group, top seeds Tennessee and Kentucky could face a stiff challenge in the quarterfinals on Friday.

7. Florida (7-9): Florida just wasn’t quite able to break through this year. Their only win of note is an upset of Georgia a little over a week ago. Like Vanderbilt, Florida is an undersized team. It doesn’t help that Azania Stewart, one of their few frontcourt players, has been sidelined due to injury. Stewart had 21 points and 11 rebounds in Florida’s overtime win over first-round opponent Auburn back in January, and there isn’t anyone to take up that slack. Guards Steffi Sorensen and Jordan Jones will have to come up big, and the Gators will have to outwork Auburn on the glass to advance.

8. South Carolina (7-9): Coach Dawn Staley’s rebuilding project continued to move forward this year. Just a couple of years removed from the league cellar they were nearly .500 in conference this year. They’ve won in tough road environments at Auburn, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. A late four-game slide will keep them from doing much more this season, but that season-ending win in Nashville shows that they have plenty of fight still. South Carolina has a classic inside-out combo: Freshman Kelsey Bone has made an immediate impact by finishing top 10 in both scoring and rebounding. Valerie Nainima is one of the league’s top outside shooters.

9. Ole Miss (7-9): Ole Miss looked for a while like a team that was headed for a memorable season. They started SEC play 5-1 which included consecutive wins over LSU, Mississippi State, and Georgia. They’ve only won two games since and have slid down the standings and likely out of the NCAA Tournament. Bianca Thomas is the SEC’s leading scorer and could carry her team past the first round. One player to watch is forward Nikki Byrd – she’s a key contributor and was injured in the season finale.

10. Auburn (5-11): Wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and LSU show what Auburn is capable of. They just haven’t been able to play at that level in many other games. They lean on the post play of KeKe Carrier and the streaky outside shooting of Alli Smalley. Carrier could be a devastating force against an undersized Florida team – she scored 24 when they met in January and won’t have Azania Stewart to worry about. If Auburn can advance past Florida, they’ll play Kentucky on Friday, and Auburn beat UK less than a week ago.

 Leaving the Bus Idling

For the first time in several years, the teams at the bottom of the league aren’t automatic outs. Both Alabama and Arkansas have made some noise this year and could make their opening round opponents very nervous.

11. Alabama (4-12): Alabama has had a rough few years in the conference, but they’re beginning to show signs of progress. They won as many SEC games this year (4) as they’ve won in the past three seasons. They’ve even managed to sweep Florida this year, and a win over rival Auburn has to be one of the program’s bright spots lately. They lack any real stars, but forward Tierney Jenkins is nearly averaging a double-double.

12. Arkansas (4-12): Last year Arkansas rolled off a string of wins to rise from the bottom of the league to middle-of-the-pack respectability. It looked as if they might be headed in a similar direction this year when they posted thre straight wins in February including road wins at Auburn and South Carolina. But the Razorbacks have faded down the stretch and have lost three straight entering postseason play. They played first-round opponent Vanderbilt close back in January and have the athleticism at guard to match the Vanderbilt backcourt.

I’ve been enjoying David Hale’s look at some of the stats that could play a role in the outcome of the 2010 football season, and we can turn some similar analysis on the basketball team to understand what’s behind Georgia’s rebuilding effort.

Most sports have stats that aren’t listed in the box score but have become part of the vocabulary of those trying to understand the games. Sabermetrics has taken over baseball analysis. Football fans talk about hidden yardage and SDPI. Basketball fans try to identify hustle plays and are even starting to apply Sabermetrics-like analysis to hoops.

There’s a basketball stat that goes back over 50 years – points per possession (PPP). It’s a way to measure a team’s efficiency: the more points you can get out of each possession the more efficient your offense. The reverse holds true for defense. It applies whether you are a slow-paced team or an up-tempo team. There are many ways to determine the total number of possessions in a game (other than outright charting them as some teams do), but a formula like this can be used to approximate total possessions from most box scores:

Possessions = field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + (0.475 x free throw attempts)

Generally speaking, better offenses seem to have a PPP around 1.10 or higher. A number under 1.00 isn’t great, and below 0.90 is putrid.

To illustrate how far Georgia’s offense has come under Mark Fox, Georgia’s PPP last year was a dismal 0.88 – Georgia managed far less than a point per possession. You’ll have to dig to find many major programs worse than that. In a typical game with 65-75 possessions, Georgia could expect about 57-66 points. That won’t win many games.

Georgia’s PPP has improved this year by a whopping 20% to 1.06 PPP. Defensive efficiency has dropped marginally this year, but it pales next to the improvement on offense. Anyone watching Georgia hoops has seen it; these numbers quantify the improvement.

For all the talk of Wall and Cousins and Patterson and the rest of the explosive Kentucky offense, their PPP on offense is only one tick better than Georgia’s: 1.07 vs. 1.06. What’s propelled Kentucky to the top of the national rankings has been its ability on defense to hold opponents to 0.93 PPP. A Basketball Prospectus notes, Kentucky is holding opponents to 27% from behind the arc this year.

Georgia’s ability to play close at Rupp Arena earlier this year raised a lot of eyebrows. Was it a case of Georgia playing well that kept it close? Not really – it was one of Georgia’s least efficient offensive performances of the year. Kentucky managed about 1.02 PPP in that game – slightly below their season average but not by much. It was an above-average performance by the Georgia defense. The key stat was Kentucky going 2-14 from behind the arc. Georgia on the other hand had a PPP of just 0.92 – far below their season average but pretty close to Kentucky’s average defensive efficiency. Georgia stayed in the game thanks to shooting 43% on three-pointers, but their 26 turnovers destroyed their efficiency and ultimately cost them down the stretch. If Georgia had managed a PPP of just 1.00 in Lexington with the same number of possessions, they would have scored around 74 points and made the ending much more interesting.

Valuing possessions is important in any sport, but it becomes acute against a team like Kentucky that has been so effective all year in crippling opponents’ offensive efficiency. Georgia will have to shoot well, but they’ll have to focus on turnovers in order to have a chance tonight. That’s not just a concern for Ware the point guard – Trey Thompkins led the Bulldogs with 6 turnovers against the Cats in January, and the inability to hold on to the ball was truly a team effort. If Georgia can maintain possession and get off a good shot within their offense, chances are they’ll be able to score in the 70s and give us a much better result this time.

…is keeping one of your rivals out. Though just one man’s opinion, this bit of prognostication warmed my heart on this cold morning:

The Gators are not [among the first four teams left out of the NCAA tournament] because of Tuesday night’s loss to Vanderbilt, at least not by that defeat alone. The failure to beat Georgia in Athens may haunt this Florida team, especially if they end up in the NIT for the third straight season.

We do what we can. A few of us were watching the usual SportsCenter bubble discussion over lunch today. Teams like Illinois and Georgia Tech came up for discussion. Both teams might be on the outside looking in, but the most satisfaction came from not seeing Georgia listed as a “bad loss” for either. On the contrary; for teams like Virginia Tech who are fighting the stigma of a weak schedule, a win over Georgia is becoming a point in their favor.

Georgia 78 – Florida 76

Black continues to be the color of mourning when Georgia and Florida get together. We all remember the failed gimmick at the WLOCP last fall. Only a week ago the Lady Dogs went black and lost a game in Gainesville that would have earned them a #3 seed and first-round bye for the SEC Tournament. The Florida men’s basketball team returned the favor on Saturday with their homage to the New York Mets, and the result was predictable: Georgia has now won two straight over Florida in Athens.

The win didn’t come easy, and it took a nice defensive stand in the final ten seconds to secure the win. One big development in the game was the performance of Georgia’s bench. Depth has been one of Georgia’s bigger problems during the year, and the reserves have had their problems. But the quick turnaround from Thursday’s overtime game along with some early fouls meant that some reserves were going to have to play meaningful minutes, and they came through by outscoring Florida’s bench 31-8. Most surprising (and welcome) was the play of freshman DeMario Mayfield who scored five points and showed some nice presence of mind on an assist over an important run to close the first half.

Florida, with its postseason future very much uncertain, was desperate for the win and came roaring back from 15 down. Chandler Parsons made play after play, and Kenny Boynton was virtually unguardable from behind the arc. Jeremy Price scored Georgia’s final points on a huge putback with nearly 3 minutes left, and the Dawgs relied on defense to hold on to the remains of their lead.

Lady Dogs 69 – Arkansas 48

Following a midseason 2-6 slump, the Lady Dogs finished the regular season on Sunday by winning three of their last four games. The convincing 69-48 win over Arkansas gives Georgia a meager 2-game winning streak, but it’s their first taste of sustained success since January. There were three SEC upsets on Sunday throwing the league standings into a bit of chaos, but a 12-0 start against Arkansas ensured that the Lady Dogs wouldn’t be one of the upset victims.

The Lady Dogs were picked to finish third in the SEC before the season, and that’s where they ended up thanks to the late-season push. The SEC Tournament opens this week in Duluth, and the Lady Dogs will feature in the nightcap at ~9:00 p.m. on Thursday against Alabama – a team that Georgia has already faced and defeated twice this year.

Diamond Dawgs sweep Stetson

Georgia held on for a 7-5 win over visiting Stetson on Sunday to earn the series sweep. The weekend started well with a 12-2 rout on Friday, but the Diamond Dawgs had to rally with two in the bottom of the 8th to win 9-8 on Saturday. Alex McRee closed the door by striking out the side in the top of the 9th. Sunday’s game was a little easier, but Stetson did creep back from a 7-3 deficit with two late runs before falling short. Georgia had a perfect 7-0 week after returning from Waco, and they stand at 6-2 overall.

The competition ratchets up this week. Wednesday’s midweek game against Alabama in Hoover, Ala. is a rare midweek meeting of conference foes, but the game won’t count in the SEC standings. Then it’s off to Tallahassee for a big weekend series against FSU at the site where Georgia’s 2009 season ended.

In other news…

• The Gym Dogs remained undefeated at home with a win over LSU. It wasn’t their best effort of the year, but they held on to their #5 ranking.
• We’ve talked about UGA sprinter Torrin Lawrence before, and the AJC catches up with him (figuratively) as his career continues on its upward trajectory.

Georgia dispatched Arkansas by more than 20 points on an emotional Senior Day, but they faced the unusual “reward” of  falling in the standings at the same time thanks to the quirks of the SEC tiebreaker system. It was that kind of day in the conference on a Sunday that saw three big upsets and  seven teams finish the season within two games of each other.

The Lady Dogs entered the day with a pretty firm grip on 5th place in the SEC standings.  There was a realistic shot of moving into 4th place:  an LSU win over Mississippi State in Baton Rouge would place those teams in a three-way tie with Georgia for 4th place at 9-7 in conference.  Since those three teams were all 1-1 against each other, Georgia’s win over Tennessee would be the trump card that landed them the 4th seed and the coveted first-round bye.

That scenario actually unfolded. Unfortunately South Carolina’s upset of Vanderbilt in Nashville was all it took for Georgia to fall from the 4th seed to the 6th seed.  Vandy’s loss meant that four teams – Vandy, LSU, Mississippi State, and Georgia – all finished tied for 3rd place at 9-7.  The same tiebreaker system that would have awarded Georgia the #4 seed in a three-way tie scenario was much kinder to Mississippi State and LSU in a four-way tie.  Those two teams earned byes while Vandy and Georgia are left to play on Thursday. 

Here’s how the order shakes out:

1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky
3. Mississippi State
4. LSU
5. Vanderbilt
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. South Carolina
9. Ole Miss
10. Auburn
11. Alabama
12. Arkansas 

We’ll have our annual tournament preview soon, but start with this:  it might look as if Georgia got a bit of a shaft falling to the bottom of that four-way logjam, but the #6 seed means they avoid the side of the bracket with tournament favorite Tennessee, red-hot LSU, and pesky Vanderbilt.