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Post Fine-tuning your spring football overreaction skills

Monday April 6, 2009

G-Day’s this weekend, and the team has been conditioning and preparing for this scrimmage since mat drills back in February. Fans have a job to do too though – over-analyzing everything that happens in order to make definitive conclusions about where the team is headed this year. The highlight of course is the Johnny Brown / Ronnie Powell Award for an outstanding G-Day performance by a running back who’ll hardly ever see time in the fall. But every stat is fodder for our expert analysis, and none is too meaningless to scrutinize.

To get us warmed up, we’ll start with QB Joe Cox’s line from last Saturday’s scrimmage. It doesn’t matter that you didn’t watch the scrimmage; why confuse things when we have rock-solid stats?

6-of-18 for 65 yards. 1 INT, 2 TDs

If your reaction is to think, “well…just one scrimmage, controlled situations, coaches didn’t seem too concerned,” you’ve got a lot of work to do between now and Saturday. Consider these alternative and far more interesting and inflammatory reactions:

Good: Defense is back! If our starter can’t complete 50%, we must finally have something cooking in the secondary. Look out Teeblow!

Better: 33%? Cory Phillips was a better quarterback than that. Hell…Terrence Edwards was too! We’re in deep trouble if this is the best we have.

Now consider the stats for Aaron Murray (6-of-10, 132 yards, 2 TDs) and Logan Gray (7-of-9, 1 TD), and you come up with Best: QUARTERBACK CONTROVERSY!!!!11!


Post April Fool’s! ….or not

Friday April 3, 2009

In an episode of great unintentional comedy, check out this thread from a Nevada message board to see an April Fool’s joke that took an unexpected turn, oh, about last evening some time.


Post Fox introduced as Georgia’s basketball coach

Friday April 3, 2009

Mark Fox was introduced as Georgia’s newest men’s basketball coach at a Friday morning press conference, and my impressions were favorable. He spoke well of the opportunity, knew what made Georgia an attractive option to him as a coach and to prospective recruits, and looked at ease in his first appearance in Athens. The hard work starts now, but it was a good first impression. The key points:

Contract. Fox’s contract is a 6-year deal worth $1.3 million per year.

Staff. Fox will being at least one assistant, Kwanza Johnson. It’s expected that Associate Head Coach David Carter will be promoted to replace Fox at Nevada.

Fox was clear that he places a high priority on hiring an assistant familiar with the area. It’s an obvious need, and he didn’t shy away from it. Fox’s contract is about a full million dollars less than the rumored deal put together for Mike Anderson. Fox might or might not have access to all of that extra cash to build his staff, but at least we know that the funds are there to put some very attractive offers out to some impact assistants.

Georgia coach Mark Fox


Post Welcoming Mark Fox

Friday April 3, 2009

I have to be honest…as much as I convinced myself that yesterday’s story was a meaningless plant, part of me was wondering how I’d come to terms with Frank Haith as Georgia’s next coach. No matter how I spun it, the thought was depressing.

Fortunately we don’t have to worry about making such a mistake. Mark Fox is the guy, and I have to agree with Paul here: I like it. He’s maintained a strong mid-major program, recruited well at that level, won NCAA Tournament games, and has beaten several major programs along the way.

Fox is hardly a no-name. He might be unfamiliar in these parts because, let’s face it, who in this part of the country knows anything about West Coast hoops much beyond UCLA and Gonzaga? But he’s been a candidate before for other major positions (Nebraska, for example), and he was even mentioned as a possible candidate at Arizona this week. We can’t let our own provincialism keep us from recognizing a decent coach.

The main knock against Fox seems to be recruiting – specifically, will a guy whose roots and experience don’t go much further east than Kansas be able to hit the ground running in the talent-rich state of Georgia? This is a valid concern since missing out on key in-state prospects has been a problem plaguing Georgia basketball for decades. Still, I think the concern might be overblown to some extent. Why?

  • First, Fox – as an assistant and head coach – has been able to attract quality, even NBA-level, talent from several states to a mid-major program in Reno, Nevada. The conference, location, resources, and local talent base are all comparative advantages for Georgia. It will take time getting up to speed and making the connections in the area, but the skills are there.
  • Second, and this is a key point many are overlooking, is that Fox won’t be the only one recruiting. Fox likely will not command the $2+ million dangled in front of Mike Anderson, so there should be more than enough room in the budget to bring on at least one proven assistant with experience and connections in this area. It couldn’t hurt to call someone like this.

Rough edges

Fox’s reputation unfortunately includes incidents where his temper has gotten the better of him.

It’s true that Fox’s Nevada team beat Anthony Grant and VCU head-to-head just a few months ago. It’s also true that Fox missed the last eight minutes of the game after getting tossed with his team down 60-51.

No big deal, coaches get tossed all the time. But more disturbing was a March 2007 incident in which Fox "yelled profanities and appeared ready to use force toward a police officer and game officials" after losing in the WAC tournament. Fox admitted fault and added that "I’ve got to realize when the game ends, it ends."

If you’re winning and your coach is intense, emotional, and confrontational, fans love it. He’s a fighter and driven out of his mind to win. If you’re losing, the same coach is out of control, reckless, and an embarrassment. If the coach is Bobby Knight, he’s all of those things. Fox doesn’t have Knight’s win total yet, and both Georgia and the SEC won’t have much tolerance for an explosive coach who can’t control himself. With Damon Evans’ vision of a "CEO of basketball", those rough edges are going to have to get polished up quickly.

The Process

With all but the introduction left, people are beginning to look back at the process and ask did Damon Evans accomplish what he set out to do?

I keep seeing the claim that Damon Evans vowed to "make a splash" with this hire. I’ve read Hale’s interview with Evans. I’ve seen what Evans had to say to Jeff Schultz. I definitely see evidence of Evans’ lofty goals for the program ("I want to win championships," he said. "I think we have to awake the sleeping giant."). I also see some specific things he was looking for in this coach.

Evans said he wants a coach who has experience running a major program. He wants someone who understands how athletics and academics work together. Finally, he wants someone "who can get out there and recruit players and bring some talent to the university."

So I’m looking for a CEO of basketball, someone who possesses outstanding leadership, understands the role of athletics as it relates to being at an institution of higher learning the academic component someone who is going to help our young men grow and develop athletically and academically, and someone who has a great knowledge of basketball, someone who can recruit players to this institution and, just as important, someone who can gauge the Bulldog Nation.

What I don’t see is evidence of Evans promising to make a flashy, big-name hire that makes a splash. If you can point me to it, I’d appreciate it because it seems as if everyone but me heard him say it. Of course such a hire would have been nice. A big, recognizable name would have been a clear success (as far as the process goes), but the lack of one doesn’t necessarily mean failure. If you go by what Evans actually said, we’re not that far away. One can quibble whether Fox has "experience running a major program," but you’d have that same discussion with someone like Anthony Grant.

I have a real problem with lumping Grant into the "big name" category which includes others like Capel and Anderson. Grant, though successful within his conference and respected as a recruiter for his job at Florida, is no more accomplished as a head coach (and perhaps even less so) than Fox. Grant’s advantage is his aforementioned experience recruiting in the SEC which is no small thing but also not enough to call him an obvious missed opportunity.

Regardless, Fox won’t be able to escape comparisons to Grant as long as both coach in the SEC. Fox’s performance, recruiting, and accomplishments will be measured out of the gate against Grant. Georgia’s not exactly short on rivals, but now even the Alabama game is going to carry a little extra significance.

Did Evans and those involved with the search aim high and miss? Sure. There was nothing wrong with that, and, given the outcome, it didn’t hurt to try. The commitment to the program is there, and we ended up with a quality coach.

Expectations

While I agree with Evans’ goals for the program, I have my own expectations for Fox and the program. Some are longer-term, some are not. With the talent in place and only a short recruiting period left before next season, it could be another long year. I realize that. There are opportunities though for some immediate results. We eventually want Georgia men’s basketball to be a championship-level program and perform at the level of many other Georgia programs, but these are some milestones along the way.

  • Assemble a staff that can recruit the state of Georgia out of the gate. With major holes at both shooting guard and small forward/wing, filling those holes is job #1 just to be competitive next season.
  • Beat Tech. Let’s not forget the most important thing for a coach of any sport at Georgia. The Dawgs haven’t lost to Tech in Athens since the series went home-and-home in 1995, and I don’t plan on that changing next season.
  • Embrace Georgia. Dennis Felton, right or wrong, was criticized early on for being flippant with and even standoffish to the fan base. Silly things like the lack of red in his wardrobe were pointed out. While these were trivial things (and the death of Kevin Brophy cemented him as part of the Georgia family), they served as footholds for future complaints and negativity as Felton struggled to build his program.
  • Improve performance on the road. Paul’s done extensive work showing just how bad Dennis Felton’s road record was. He also points out a glimmer of hoepe by highlighting some of Fox’s bigger road wins at Nevada. The ability to win on the road is the mark of a successful and disciplined program that doesn’t need its own crowd in order to be motivated for a game.
  • Drastically reduce attrition. You can’t build a program by starting over every few years. As important as recruiting is, keeping the student-athletes in school, out of trouble, and on track to graduating is just as important.
  • Sustain a winning SEC record. The competition might have increased with the addition of Calipari and Grant to the league, but the SEC still offers plenty of opportunities to win games. Look…we’re not even asking for a conference title (yet). Just get us above .500 in the league and keep us there.
  • Finally…make the NCAA selection show must-see TV for Georgia fans.

Post Easy now

Thursday April 2, 2009

Chip Towers is reporting in the AJC that Damon Evans will meet with Clemson’s Oliver Purnell and Miami’s Frank Haith in Detroit.

That does not mean we plan to offer the job to either.

This is the kind of thing I was talking about the other day. Georgia and Evans have no motive to leak anything about their candidates or even those with whom they’d like to chat up for advice. Evans wasn’t even a source for anything having to do with Mike Anderson. Purnell is in the process of negotiating an increase with Clemson, and Haith is just trying to defend himself after failing to make the NCAA Tournament. Each has a motive for appearing to be a candidate for other jobs.

As Roger Clarkson of the ABH reminds us, the Final Four is always the annual meeting of the National Association of Basketball Coaches. Just about every coach in the nation will be there. Evans is likely to speak with dozens of coaches in Detroit, not just Purnell and Haith. He’s not going to offer the job to all of them. And not every one of them are going to leak the fact that they’re meeting with Evans to the press.

Just keep in mind that “talking with”, especially at an event like this, is not necessarily related to “interview”, “candidate”, or “offer forthcoming.”

If you wonder why Frank Haith’s name keeps coming up (a coach who has never finished better than .500 in his conference), consider that he shares an agent with none other than Dennis Felton. Joseph “Ricky” Lefft also represents Tubby Smith.


Post Make it so

Thursday April 2, 2009

ESPN is planning to offer cable and satellite systems the option of swapping ESPN Classic for ESPNU in an attempt to increase the presence of the college-focused network. (h/t Get the Picture)

I have three suggestions for Comcast.

  1. Make it happen.
  2. Now.
  3. Don’t forget HD.

The games between Comcast and ESPN have gone on long enough. I haven’t watched ESPN Classic in years (sorry, Schwab). It’s the most obvious trade since the LA Lakers traded Vlade Divac to get Kobe Bryant.


Post On to Plan B

Tuesday March 31, 2009

ESPN reports that Mike Anderson will remain at Missouri, signing a new 7-year deal.

It’s hard to compare offers head-to-head with all of the different incentives that are separate from the base and guaranteed money, but it looks as if Anderson chose to remain at Missouri despite an offer speculated to be several hundreds of thousands of dollars higher from Georgia.

It’s certainly a bad blow, and the public rejection is egg on the face. No way to spin that. There are other quality coaches though, and the numbers reportedly involved in the Anderson offer have to be attractive to some of them.

Make no mistake, this isn’t a failure of effort. Georgia put their best foot forward and outbid Missouri. Offering over $2 million for a hoops coach is a serious indication of commitment to the basketball program and would make Georgia one of the higher-paying programs in the nation. That’s a good first step, but now it’s time to close.

As to who might be next on the list, there’s all sorts of speculation, but little of it can be believed. If the search firm and athletic department were this quiet up to now, they’re not suddenly going to publish a list of the next three guys to be contacted. A lot of the names you might hear will surface simply because opportunistic agents are trying to get their guys talked about.

And don’t forget Wednesday’s date…


Post Football ticket order deadline today

Tuesday March 31, 2009

Just a reminder…if you haven’t ordered or renewed your football season tickets yet, today’s the final day. It’s also the last day to order road game and extra home game tickets. All Hartman Fund donors have the ability to order Tennessee Tech, Vandy, Arkansas, and Oklahoma State tickets.

You can order/renew online at Georgiadogs.com.


Post Finally something concrete: Georgia offers Anderson

Tuesday March 31, 2009

You can tell the search firm hired to consult on the Georgia men’s basketball coaching hire was doing its job when the headline on the AJC this morning read, “UGA coaching search remains a mystery”. Chasing planes, sketchy rumors of meetings in Atlanta that never happened…it was a frustrating Monday trying to nail down hard information on what was going on with the search. Meanwhile, Alabama has a coach, Virginia announced their new coach on Monday, and Kentucky made a move for John Calipari of Memphis seemingly overnight. Was Georgia, after all this time, going to be left out?

Now Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com reports that Georgia has indeed offered Missouri’s Mike Anderson a deal somewhere in the $2 million / year range. Missouri’s counteroffer was expected to be only around $1.3 million per season. According to Schlabach, “Anderson spoke to Georgia athletics director Damon Evans on Monday…and is back home pondering his future.”

Now the questions begin:

Will Anderson wait to see if Memphis offers?
Will Memphis, a Conference USA program riding high in an NBA market on the flashy style of Calipari, look instead to someone with NBA ties or with at least as large of a personality as Calipari?
Will Missouri be able to dig deep enough to match Georgia’s offer?

There’s still plenty of uncertainty, but at least we know now that Georgia has identified and put their best offer out to their top target. Now, we wait…

UPDATE: Of course even this story has to be challenged. According to the AJC and Anderson’s agent, there is no offer yet though Georgia is interested. You can parse the words if you like – is this an agent playing games? Have Anderson and his agent been given the terms of an offer but nothing formal on paper yet? Clearly there is some understanding of what the offer would look like. “Georgia appears to want to make a commitment to basketball and Damon probably has the most to offer,” admits Jimmy Sexton, Anderson’s agent.

On it goes…


Post Biggest weekend in Athens since Thanksgiving

Monday March 30, 2009

With apologies to the Gym Dogs, it’s been several months since there’s been a sporting event in Athens with as much buzz as this upcoming weekend’s baseball series with LSU. Georgia remains at or near the top of the polls depending on whom you ask, and LSU is actually ranked ahead of Georgia by Baseball America.

Georgia has now swept consecutive SEC series and, most recently, took three games on the road up in Knoxville. Rich Poythress, though hitless on Sunday, finished the series 6-for-10 with four homers and 10 RBI.

LSU is currently in third place in the SEC right behind Georgia with a 6-3 conference mark. They’ve taken two out of three in all of their conference series to date.

Even before Georgia gets to LSU, they have a midweek home-and-home series with Clemson. The Tigers aren’t ranked, but they’re a respectable 18-7 and will be a quality midweek test.

If you want to get out to Foley Field and take in the games this weekend, act fast. The Saturday game is already sold out, and the other days aren’t far behind. Georgia set an attendance record earlier this year against Mississippi State, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the mark broken again this weekend. The scene outside the stadium should be as good as it gets during the regular season with Kudzu Hill, the Left Field Lounge, and the visiting LSU fans mixing in.

  • Tuesday: Clemson – 7:00
  • Wednesday: @ Clemson – 7:00 (CSS)
  • Friday: LSU – 7:00
  • Saturday: LSU – 3:00 (CSS)
  • Sunday: LSU – 12:00

Post On the radar

Monday March 30, 2009

Quarterback prospect Nick Montana (yes, Joe’s his father) paid a visit to Alabama and Georgia last week, and the AJC’s Michael Carvell had a chance to discuss the visits with Nick. When asked what he found appealing about Georgia, Montana said,

If Georgia is turning out first-round draft picks like (Stafford) at quarterback, then I think anyone would take a close look at Georgia. They just put a lot of guys in the league. I also like that Georgia wins. They were ranked No. 1 at one point last year.

Lots to like about that quote. First, no knock on David Greene or D.J. Shockley, but quarterback has been the one position at which Georgia has historically struggled to develop high draft picks. Even a legend like Fran Tarkenton was only a third-round pick. Stafford is a surprisingly polarizing figure among Georgia fans, but he’ll also be the highest draft pick among Georgia quaterbacks since Johnny Rauch was selected with the second pick in 1949. One has to think that the stature of Stafford helped with Aaron Murray last year, and it even appeals across the country to someone like Montana. Good to see that changing.

The second bit is a nice wake-up call to some Georgia fans. Despite all of our kvetching and quibbling about what’s wrong with the Georgia program, the perception of the program hasn’t suffered as much as we might think. He also noticed Georgia’s preseason ranking last season. It seems like common sense that elite prospects would want to go to high-profile programs that win and are ranked high, but you’ll have to convince those who prefer that Georgia embrace the low-profile underdog role.

Will Georgia even become a finalist for Montana? Who knows at this point. His offer sheet is long and truly national, and he’s just starting the process. Right now it’s enough that Georgia has enough national standing to merit a visit and serious consideration from such a prospect.

It’s hard to mention Montana without Rice, and there’s a related story here. While Joe’s son begins the recruiting process with multiple offers from top programs, the son of the other half of the legendary Montana-to-Rice combination is walking on at UCLA this fall (h/t The Wiz).


Post Dominos begin falling

Friday March 27, 2009

That didn’t take long. Once Billy Donovan made clear that he was remaining at Florida, Anthony Grant went ahead and accepted Alabama’s offer.

It was a near-certainty that Grant would have been a top candidate at Florida had Donovan left. With his preferred job in Gainesville off the table for the time being, Grant went ahead and took the one offer he had.

Tonight’s activity at least takes the Alabama job and Grant’s availability out of play. If he was a “Plan B” candidate for Georgia, he’s not anymore. It’s pretty clear that Grant wasn’t Georgia’s first choice since they did little – on the surface anyway – to counter Alabama’s offer. Whether that will come back to haunt the Dawgs or if they are able to end up with a better fit remains to be seen.

UPDATE: Jeff Goodman of FOXSports.com reports that “Alabama offered Grant a deal that was worth about $2 million per season.” If that’s the case, they overpaid. Look at pwd’s survey of salaries around the nation. $2 million gets you a coach with major program and deep NCAA Tournament experience, not a raw mid-major coach who hangs his hat on one NCAA Tournament upset win.

Will a $2 million deal for Grant now cause a readjustment among SEC and the top tier of national coaches? Or will this headscratcher of a deal remain an outlier? It’s easy to understand now why Georgia did little to come after Grant. It’s true that the Dawgs are willing to pay that kind of money for the right coach, but a coach with the risk of Grant doesn’t merit that kind of deal (yet). It’s not like Bama is known for its frugal spending when it comes to coaches, but Grant is no Saban.


Post Big blue wrench in the gears

Friday March 27, 2009

The addition of Kentucky to the list of schools looking for a basketball coach has been a possibility hanging over the process for a while now, and now it’s a reality. Billy Gillispie is out at Kentucky, and another opening serves to muddy the waters for those of us waiting to see which coach will end up at Georgia.

Whether or not Kentucky goes after Travis Ford at Oklahoma State or someone else, it’s still likely going to affect Georgia’s search. Even if Kentucky doesn’t hire someone from Georgia’s list, the domino reaction set off by the Kentucky hire could reduce or change the pool of available and interested candidates. It’s also likely to slow up the process since some candidates and agents will wait until after Kentucky moves before pursuing offers elsewhere.

Want another bit of uncertainty from a major program? People are beginning to ask about Jim Calhoun’s future after this season.


Post Kicking it through the end zone

Friday March 27, 2009

Yesterday in getting to know new scholarship kicker Brandon Bogotay, I posted that he tallied 20 touchbacks on 52 kickoffs. That’s a 38% clip. For a guy who’s supposed to be able to kick it through the end zone, that 38% rate might seem a little low. Someone on the DawgVent asked why we were using a scholarship for a kickoff specialist who only gets touchbacks around 40% of the time.

At the time I didn’t know whether 38% was low, high, or average. We know it was a sight better than we had last season. How would it compare to the competition around the southeast?

  • South Carolina (Succop): 25 touchbacks on 61 kickoffs…41%
  • Ole Miss (Sparks): 10 touchbacks on 72 kickoffs…14%
  • Florida (Sturgis): 12 touchbacks on 90 kickoffs…13%
  • Auburn (Byrum/Hull): 4 touchbacks on 48 kickoffs…8%
  • Georgia Tech (Blair): 5 touchbacks on 62 kickoffs…8%
  • Clemson (Buchholz): 5 touchbacks on 64 kickoffs…8%
  • Tennessee (Cunningham): 3 touchbacks on 40 kickoffs…7.5%
  • LSU (Jasper): 4 touchbacks on 76 kickoffs…5%
  • Georgia (Walsh): 4 touchbacks on 75 kickoffs…5%
  • Alabama (Tiffin): 2 touchbacks on 75 kickoffs…3%

Observations:

  • Tennessee and Auburn had really, really bad offenses last year…sheesh. It can’t be said enough.
  • All-SEC placekickers (Colt David and Joshua Shene) didn’t handle kickoff duties.
  • A kicker who can get touchbacks more than 15% of the time seems to be pretty rare in these parts. I’ll leave it as an exercise to someone else to find out if 2008 was a down year for touchbacks.
  • If Bogotay can maintain his touchback rate at Georgia, he’ll be one of the best in the nation. If he is only half as effective at Georgia, he’d still likely be the best in the region.

Of course you have to have all sorts of caveats when comparing JUCO stats to those of SEC and ACC kickers. It’s not as poor of a comparison as high school stats and video though. You’re kicking from the same spot regardless of the college. We also don’t know what happened on the kickoffs that weren’t touchbacks. Were they shanks? Out of bounds? Line drives that were returned to the 40? Or were they also kicked deep but returned anyway?

Since touchbacks and kicking it through the end zone are actually not as common as we might have thought, we can’t forget that most of the time – even with the best of kickoff specialists – the coverage unit is still going to be just as important as the guy kicking off. I’m fine with not getting a touchback, but if we can at least get the ball close to or slightly inside the goal line, hopefully we’ll see far fewer returns like this next season.


Post Kickers get competition

Thursday March 26, 2009

Mark Richt joked at the end of the season that he’d go to “Poland or something to find a guy who can kick it out of the end zone.” San Diego is a little closer to home, but Richt wasn’t kidding when he said he’d bring in help for the kickoff difficulties.

Junior college kicker Brandon Bogotay has signed a letter of intent with the University of Georgia football team according to an announcement Thursday by Bulldog head coach Mark Richt.

While Richt says that he looks forward to Bogotay “competing on our kickoff, field goal, and extra point teams,” it’s likely to be on kickoffs where Bogotay gets his biggest opportunity. “I’m very comfortable with Blair (Walsh) as our extra-point and field-goal kicker,” Richt said after the Georgia Tech game. “It’s just that kickoffs have not really landed where they ought to land on a consistent basis.” I wouldn’t cast off Walsh into the Andy Bailey category just yet.

According to Marc Weiszer, Richt adds that Bogotay “has the capability of kicking the ball deep and that’s what we’re hoping to make sure we shore up.” Bogotay was 15-of-23 on field goals last year, and that’s exactly the same as Walsh managed in his first season. As another coincidence, both Walsh and Bogotay had a 52-yard kick as their longest field goal in 2008.

So if Bogotay is supposed to be the answer for kickoffs, you’re probably wondering how well he does it. He kicked off 52 times last season and had a total of 20 touchbacks. By comparison, Walsh kicked off 75 times last season and had just 4 touchbacks. Marc Weiszer also links to this video of Bogotay in action. (The kickoffs begin around 1:50 in.) Definitely impressive, but of course highlight videos never show the bad plays (if any). He obviously has the power to kick it through the end zone, and it’s important to note that, because it was junior college football, this footage shows him kicking off from the 30 yard line. Most footage of high school kickers has them kicking off from the 40 so you never know just how well it’s going to carry over into college.

A lot of people disagree with carrying three kickers on scholarship, but we also saw how frustrating and damaging it can be to shorten the field as the result of poor kickoffs. If this can fix the kickoff problem, it’s a scholarship well spent. And, again, Walsh still has plenty of potential as a placekicker.

Bogotay was also offered a scholarship by Hawaii. He’ll have three years of eligibility remaining.