Every year there are a few teams that end up on those "teams to watch" lists that I just don’t get. What’s worse is that I usually don’t have much reasoning for doubt; it’s just more of an "O RLY?" reaction when I see these teams popping up over and over again. It’s not that I expect these teams to bomb. I just don’t see as much upside in them as others.

• North Carolina. I have to say this every so often, but before my conversion I grew up a North Carolina fan. I watched Lawrence Taylor and Amos Lawrence and considered Kelvin Bryant a worthy contemporary of Herschel Walker. I still follow the program. That said, I’m not yet sold on the Butch Davis + time = lots o’ wins formula just yet. It’s not that the team won’t improve on their win total – the schedule is favorable, and I know how close they were to more wins last year. It’s just that I don’t see them jumping suddenly to an ACC contender and a Top 25 team. It might be a year too soon for that. Steady progress is fine.
• Pitt. The win vs. West Virginia was an upset, not a sign of things to come.
• Mississippi State. Great job to get to where they finished last year, but eventually you need offense. 2007 might be a peak instead of base camp.

I’m tempted to add: Texas Tech, Clemson, and Fresno.