There’s only one game of national significance in the SEC this weekend, but
there aren’t many dogs either.
Mississippi State @ Alabama: Lincoln (12:30)
Alabama has struggled a bit recently. Aside from their decent showing at Tennessee,
they have let Ole Miss, Duke, and FIU hang around far too long. The Alabama
offense isn’t putting anyone away. The Bulldogs on the other hand have shown
a bit of life on offense. Back-to-back 24+ point performances against Georgia
and Kentucky have put MSU in two nail-biters. They’re still seeking the breakthrough
win though. The Croom-Bama relationship always plays a part in this game. While
I think Bama holds serve at home, they might be in trouble or at least in for
another cardiac test if MSU can get over 21 points for the third straight week.
Florida @ Vanderbilt: Lincoln (12:30)
Last year’s narrow escape in the Swamp is the storyline for this game. The
Florida squad will no doubt remember the embarrassment of nearly losing to Vandy
(trust us, actually losing is no fun either). With the BCS standings giving
Florida new life in the national title picture, this is a big "leave no
doubt" opportunity for the Gators. Florida’s defense should keep the Vanderbilt
offense more or less under control, but the real question is the Gator offense.
Scoring under 23 points per game in SEC play (and that includes defensive scores),
I’m among those starting to wonder if Florida has a big number in them. Style
points will count if the SEC has any hopes for its fleet of one-loss teams.
Arkansas @ South Carolina: ESPN (7:45)
The Hogs take their perfect SEC mark nearly 1,000 miles east. They’ve treaded
water with some easy wins since their decisive win over Auburn. South Carolina
got a dose of reality last weekend in their loss to Tennessee. The Gamecocks
have started to find some answers on offense. Arkansas should expect to run
well with the league’s top rushing attack against a run defense rated in the
bottom third of the SEC. The Columbia crowd is always a factor, but Arkansas
has already been road-tested at Auburn. This is the kind of game that Arkansas
has to win if they have a chance of winning the West – Tennessee and LSU are
right around the corner.
Georgia @ Kentucky (no TV)
The passing games of both teams will be in the spotlight here. Kentucky has
the SEC’s third-most productive passing offense, and Georgia’s defense has taken
its licks through the air. Wildcat quarterback Andre Woodson is big and mobile
and a much improved player from the shell-shocked kid we saw a year ago. Georgia
turned up the heat last week against Florida with decent results. They’ll need
a strong performance from the defensive line against a banged-up UK offensive
front. On the other side, Georgia’s Matthew Stafford continues to develop under
center, and he’ll go up against the conference’s most generous pass defense.
The one gotcha for Stafford is turnovers. Kentucky is right near the top of
the league in turnover margin, recovering an SEC-best 11 fumbles. They have
only turned the ball over ten times. Georgia has turned it over ten times in
just the past two games. Georgia’s 16 takeaways are middle of the pack, but
their 22 giveaways result in the SEC’s worst turnover margin. Worse, many of
Georgia’s turnovers have set opponents up deep inside of Bulldog territory.
LSU @ Tennessee: CBS (3:30)
This is the big SEC game of the week. Tennessee is coming off of two very emotional
games. They won in a comeback over arch rival Alabama, and then they put the
Fulmer vs. Spurrier game behind them last week. They’ll have to gear up for
a third straight week against an LSU team that’s been flying under the radar
a bit and no doubt stewing about this game since their loss at Florida. There’s
also the emotional baggage from last year’s game. LSU roared out to a big lead
in their first post-Katrina home game, but Tennessee fought back for their only
win of consequence in 2005. LSU’s defense surely remembers how Erik Ainge folded
spectacularly against their pressure in that game. The difference between home
and away has been night and day for LSU. In their five home games this year,
LSU hasn’t scored fewer than 45 points. In their two road games, they haven’t
scored more than 10 points. That those two road games were at Auburn and Florida
has a lot to do with the disparity, but Tennessee is also a tough place to play.
LSU has a big job to prove that they are more than paper tigers away from home.